A friend shared this April 6 piece in the National Review which set Sweden - with its relatively gentle approach to lockdown - up as the example to follow in managing COVID-19 while sneering at more forceful measures. 1/9 https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/

The first thing that jumps out is the death count. That piece, dated April 6 takes the numbers from April 5 - 401 deaths. Two days later on April 7, Sweden sits at 591 confirmed deaths. That's obviously alarming growth, and changes the picture significantly.
2/9

It's also probably useful to talk about mortality rate. Sweden now sits at 591 deaths vs. 7,693 confirmed cases - a 7.7% mortality rate at face value. Canada, for contrast, is at 381 deaths on 17,883 confirmed cases - a 2.1% mortality rate.
3/9

It's a safe bet that our testing isn't capturing the full spread of the illness. It's a very good bet that it's far more widespread in Sweden than the confirmed case number suggests, especially since official policy has been to limit testing: https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/samhalle/a/70GQRV/nya-strategin--slutar-rakna-exakta-antalet-coronafall
4/9

So when NR wonders why the case rate hasn't blown past the numbers elsewhere, it's not really a legitimate argument. For the last month, Sweden hasn't been testing the way its neighbors in say Finland and Norway have been.
5/9

What does that comparison look like? Sweden sits between Norway and Finland geographically.
Sweden has a population of 10.2 million. Norway + Finland have a combined population of 10.9 million. That seems a better place to start comparisons than NR's 1st choice, Switzerland.
6/9

Sweden: 7,693 confirmed cases, 591 deaths
Norway + Finland: 8,394 confirmed cases, 123 deaths

We've talked about the problems with looking at the number of cases. There are also undoubtedly problems with looking at the number of deaths. 7/9

I'm just a random guy on the internet, so definitely don't take my word for it. But when NR trumpets the Swedish approach, they should probably note that the number of confirmed deaths is 5x higher in Sweden than it is in our very comparable Finland+Norway combination. 8/9

I also don't have good answers to any of the larger questions (and won't try).

What I feel pretty confident about is that NR's claim that social isolation doesn't work because things are going in swimmingly in Sweden is at best premature, and potentially much worse. 9/9