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A friend shared this April 6 piece in the National Review which set Sweden - with its relatively gentle approach to lockdown - up as the example to follow in managing COVID-19 while sneering at more forceful measures. 1/9 https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/">https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/c...
The first thing that jumps out is the death count. That piece, dated April 6 takes the numbers from April 5 - 401 deaths. Two days later on April 7, Sweden sits at 591 confirmed deaths. That& #39;s obviously alarming growth, and changes the picture significantly.
2/9
2/9
It& #39;s also probably useful to talk about mortality rate. Sweden now sits at 591 deaths vs. 7,693 confirmed cases - a 7.7% mortality rate at face value. Canada, for contrast, is at 381 deaths on 17,883 confirmed cases - a 2.1% mortality rate.
3/9
3/9
It& #39;s a safe bet that our testing isn& #39;t capturing the full spread of the illness. It& #39;s a very good bet that it& #39;s far more widespread in Sweden than the confirmed case number suggests, especially since official policy has been to limit testing: https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/samhalle/a/70GQRV/nya-strategin--slutar-rakna-exakta-antalet-coronafall">https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/s...
4/9
4/9
So when NR wonders why the case rate hasn& #39;t blown past the numbers elsewhere, it& #39;s not really a legitimate argument. For the last month, Sweden hasn& #39;t been testing the way its neighbors in say Finland and Norway have been.
5/9
5/9
What does that comparison look like? Sweden sits between Norway and Finland geographically.
Sweden has a population of 10.2 million. Norway + Finland have a combined population of 10.9 million. That seems a better place to start comparisons than NR& #39;s 1st choice, Switzerland.
6/9
Sweden has a population of 10.2 million. Norway + Finland have a combined population of 10.9 million. That seems a better place to start comparisons than NR& #39;s 1st choice, Switzerland.
6/9
Sweden: 7,693 confirmed cases, 591 deaths
Norway + Finland: 8,394 confirmed cases, 123 deaths
We& #39;ve talked about the problems with looking at the number of cases. There are also undoubtedly problems with looking at the number of deaths. 7/9
Norway + Finland: 8,394 confirmed cases, 123 deaths
We& #39;ve talked about the problems with looking at the number of cases. There are also undoubtedly problems with looking at the number of deaths. 7/9
