'All models are wrong, but some might be useful' is the advice I would give to everyone looking at data, analyzing the trend and projecting trajectories. Please take every model with a pinch of salt, especially those that claim to know what they are talking about. Reasons:

1. In Pakistan the data is scant and not very well organized. The data collection mechanism is weak so there is this issue which will always put a lot of questions on predictive modelling.
2. There are a lot of caveats in the data that is coming through. The cases from Zaireen

Raiwind ijtima and other clusters can not be used in usual exponential modelling because some of those clusters are contained and might give one-off jumps which might cause some to declare that we're on this country's path or that country's.
3. The data only tells you two weeks

in the past and you have to factor in what happened during the last two weeks to project what will happen in the next two weeks. So in Pakistan's case, the full effect of lockdown (23rd March) only started coming from yesterday and we will not know until next week how the

lockdown affected our growth and spread.
4. Testing is limited which will always cause a lot of issues in predictions. You can look at positive to tested ratio but they also vary widely between regions so you can't do predictive modelling on Pakistan as a whole.
5. We have next

to no knowledge on which factors are affecting R. We don't know how weather is affecting spread. We don't know if certain people are more susceptible. We don't know if BCG vaccinations or other factors are playing a role. Heck we don't even know how many asymptomatic cases are of

this disease. The estimates literally range from 17 to 80% which can throw your model off by orders of magnitude. We also don't have a reliable number for CFR to do some reverse calculations on cases.
The point is that data in the country and knowledge of virus is so scant that

all models are wrong right now. They maybe useful for some purposes but even then we can't rely on any of them. We have to do the basics right. We have to keep going at physical distancing for as long as we don't have definitive knowledge. We have to listen to experts and we

as citizens have to play our part in making this ordeal easier for those who are the worst affected by the economic and social consequences of this pandemic. Finally this is not to give our numbers an optimistic or a pessimistic touch. It's just a caution to understand the

context of all the numbers that are being reported and also to not get carried away by any model or projections. The government, however, always starts from the assumption of the worst and prepares for it, while hoping for the best.