On 23rd March Italy had had 6077 deaths and 63927 cases from 275465 tests.

On 7th April (15 day lag) the UK had had 6159 deaths and 55242 cases from 266694 tests.

Most of the issues about reporting deaths, missing community deaths and testing bias are true of both countries.

The UK has been closely tracking Italy, 14-16 days behind on deaths for at least a couple of weeks.

Italy fully locked down the North on 7th March. Deaths peaked on 27th March (20 day lag) across Italy. Cases peaked on 21st March (14 day lag)

Spain had had 6528 deaths from 78797 cases on 28th March. Again, there are similar issues with reporting deaths/cases as in the UK. But this suggests the UK lags 10-11 days behind. Spain had a steeper epidemic curve so the UK has not tracked it as consistently as it has Italy.

Spain’s full lockdown was on 14th March (though they had phased in some interventions beforehand) and their peak cases was 30th March (16 day lag) and peak deaths on 1st April (18 day lag). Similar to the lags seen in Italy.

The UK locked down on 23rd March. Whether the lockdowns are comparable in Italy, Spain and UK is debatable but based on Italian and Spanish figures, UK cases should peak on 6th April (Italy) or 9th April (Spain) and deaths should peak on 12th April (Italy) or 11th April (Spain).

In fact, the highest number of UK cases (so far) was on 5th April and they’ve been lower up to 7th April but any future increase in the case number maximum might suggest the UK is in for a worse epidemic than Italy and Spain, as predicted by some.

The next week will be crucial.