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A few thoughts on Abe's balancing act last night, and the thinly disguised tension between the central and Tokyo governments.
The Wuhan "lockdown" actually caused a mass exodus of millions of people before it came into effect. The global flight bans caused huge numbers of people to return to Asia, and seeded a second wave of infections here.
One thing Abe is trying to avoid is a panic in Tokyo which causes a mass exodus of people to all corners of Japan, and would seed the virus all around the country. Especially in communities with many elderly people.
Hence the stress on "no lockdown," (an implicit slap-down to Koike who had used that word), the stress that the city will continue to function, the risk of catching the virus is not really high compared to cities overseas.
What we have to fear is fear itself.
The problem, or the risk, is that this left the messaging rather confused. Don't go out, but walking and jogging is fine; don't go for meals, except with your family; work from home, unless it's too hard.
People are supposed to reduce contact by 70 percent, but how on earth can people judge that sort of percentage?
So yes, extreme measures can have unintended consequences. I get that. But the lesson from other countries is that people also need clear instructions on what to avoid.
And the thing most likely to cause fear? A sense that the government doesn't have this under control, and that the official virus data doesn't reflect the real situation.
Has Abe got the balancing act right? I guess time will tell. For me, I'm staying home.
(And that's not even mentioning the question of whether Abe put the economy and Abenomics as a higher priority than the virus fight, which I wrote about yesterday). /ENDS https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/japan-opts-for-emergency-but-no-lockdown--keeping-its-eye-on-economy/2020/04/07/16145058-78a5-11ea-a311-adb1344719a9_story.html
Of course all this would have been much easier if the emergency had been declared earlier. Before the virus became rampant in Tokyo. When the Japan Medical Association (and Tokyo government) asked for it. Delay has left us with an impossible situation.
