Easy Brit... it comes down to how many cases they thought we’d have vs how many we actually have...

It’s only the difference between shutting down when we did (mitigation) vs shutting down 2 weeks later.

Last week we had 240K, no mitigation week 1 = 854k cases, 2 week = 2.9mil https://twitter.com/brithume/status/1247552520219656194

We clearly shut down in time.

The hospitalization rate hasn’t changed. The case load did.

NYC has 32083 total hospitalizations
Off of 138863 cases for a rate of 23%

If they thought they’d have 2 x as many cases, they’d have 64k hospitalizations.

This isn’t hard.

It’s not like the virus has suspended its rules to require a lower hospitalization rate... we lowered the R0 by orders of magnitude to flatten the curve...

That’s what the whole meaning of flattening the curve means.