NYC statistics on confirmed cases continue to astound me. People probably still think of Lombardy in Italy as the worst case in Western world as far as the outbreak, but NYC caught up in Cases per 1M population on March 30th and has skyrocketed into the global lead for hotspots.

NYC now has a staggering +70% more per capita cases of COVID-19 (~75K in a 8.6M pop city) than Lombardy does (~52K in 10.1M pop province). While there was a big ramp in reported deaths today, NYC Health attributes that to delays in lab test results.

While that is a very plausible explanation, it becomes hard to do trend analysis including fatality rate evolution. Right now on a cumulative basis NYC CFR of 4.8% is significantly below Lombardy at 18.1%. This NYC CFR does indicate a hospital system under stress because ...

The demographics of NYC's cases are relatively more younger than Italy (don't have Lombardy by itself). In NYC only ~25% of the cases are over age 65, while for Italy ~45% of the cases are over age 65.

It is really hard to now look at daily deaths of NYC and ascertain whether or not NYC hospitals have experienced a Lombardy like breakpoint, but they are clearly stressed. Their CFR is now almost 5% and rising.

While below Italian national CFR of 12%, the favorable case mix for NYC by age and still increasing CFR trend makes it hard to compare NYC vs Italy as a whole CFR.

All that it appears safe to say is that NYC Hospitals are performing significantly better than Lombardy at a much higher case load (+70%) but probably in-line with Italy as a whole if adjusted for favorable case age mix.