Picture this. You're standing at the beach. You see the tides roll out. You see all the animals running inland. You have two options. Follow the animals, or sit there until the Tsunami appears so your need for data can be satisfied. https://twitter.com/steak_umm/status/1247343900475490304

The problem with people like this is simple. They'll tell you that models are effective and useful. They forget most models are wrong and some are deadly. You can model a chess game. It's not about as difficult as it gets. I've had 3 people arguing with me about models.

They always introduce chess. So here's the response for that once and for all. Look, chess at some tournament is fine. But imagine you're playing chess in the prison yard. Are the rules of chess the same? Yep, but what happens when you take the queen of your opponent...

and by embarrassing him in front of his crew, he loses control and decides it's the perfect time to shank you in the ribs? That's what people who model things don't understand. The world contains games, but games cannot contain the world.

I had a personal training client a few years back. He told me the way he survived his 2 year bid was that he played chess and taught the inmates how to read. After a while, he got a reputation for being the best chess player.

One of the gangs in the yard had a boss that loved to play chess and bragged about chess all the time. He was invited to play and he thought nothing of it. That's when he got stabbed in the ribs. He predicated his opponent's moves but not his opponent.