Theory: Most fans think their team is bad at drafting in the first couple rounds but better than most at drafting in the middle rounds

Reason (if true): First-round picks are more likely to go bust than is widely acknowledged, and mid-round picks are generally undervalued. Basically our information on players pre-draft is highly imperfect, and teams and fans suffer from overconfidence at the top of the draft

The Cowboys might be an interesting exception to this because they struck gold time and time again in the first round for a few years there. But I think fan frustrations with Cowboys recent drafts are pretty consistent with this theory