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The % of tests in Arkansas that return a positive result is 6.9%. That number has steadily gone down as Arkansas has ramped up testing. It was over 20% less than 2 weeks ago. That decline is a very good thing. But the statewide % positive masks what's happening in the counties.
Of the 35 counties with more than 4 cases, 30 of them have a higher % positive rate than the state average of 6.9%. Only five counties have a lower % positive than the state average. (Not all of the counties are labeled on the chart due to space.)
The chart below illustrates how many counties are have a lower % positive rate than the statewide level of 6.9% (the orange pie slice). Five counties have a % positive rate greater than 20%, 5 have a positive rate between 15-20%, 11 between 7-10% positive, and 9 between 7-10%.
So, while Pope County (the lowest % positive at 2.25%) has tested 753 people, Clark County (the highest % positive at 44.2%) has tested 61 people. Clark County has 27 cases, while Pope County has 17. This isn't to say we shouldn't be testing like crazy in Pope County.
We should be testing in Pope County. Their positive cases have jumped from 8 to 17 in the past 4 days. But we should also be testing in Clark County, where there is clearly a cluster but they've only reported 5 new results in the past 4 days.
)This is no disparagement on the five counties that have low returns of positive tests. They're doing it right. So, kudos to Pope, Ashley, Benton, Garland, and Polk counties.)
It would be easy to say, "the more tests you do, the lower your % positive will be." Well, not necessarily. Pulaski County has done 1,151 tests, the most out of any county in Arkansas. Their % positive rate is 15.2%, more than double the statewide number.
Quick point on why I left out counties with fewer than 4 positive tests. The state does not provide a specific number if counties have less than 4 positive tests - they instead just say "1-4." The data is imprecise and doesn't lend to an accurate % positive.
To sum up: The 6.9% positive rate in Arkansas is not the full story. Most counties in Arkansas are higher (some much higher) in the percentage of tests returning positive.
