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Consider this—
data indicating the probability of a Sanders victory over Trump in 2020 indicated the probability of a Trump victory over Clinton in 2016 to be *significantly* lower, yet Trump won handily, particularly in swing states—
data indicating the probability of a Sanders victory over Trump in 2020 indicated the probability of a Trump victory over Clinton in 2016 to be *significantly* lower, yet Trump won handily, particularly in swing states—
in conjunction with this:
the difference in probability of victory between Biden-v-Trump and Sanders-v-Trump when taking into account margin of error isn’t in itself significant enough to make a strong case for Biden (not as strong as some are wont to suggest, anyway).
the difference in probability of victory between Biden-v-Trump and Sanders-v-Trump when taking into account margin of error isn’t in itself significant enough to make a strong case for Biden (not as strong as some are wont to suggest, anyway).
Also, consider:
cross-referencing swing states won by Obama in 2012 with those won by Trump in 2016. Within these states, cross-reference precincts won by Obama in 2012 with those won by Trump in 2016. Of these precincts, which 2020 candidate comes out on top?
cross-referencing swing states won by Obama in 2012 with those won by Trump in 2016. Within these states, cross-reference precincts won by Obama in 2012 with those won by Trump in 2016. Of these precincts, which 2020 candidate comes out on top?
Also, consider:
• ~80% of Sanders-supporters will vote for the DNC nominee no matter who it is;
• ~15% of Sanders-supporters will vote Trump if Sanders is not the DNC
nominee;
• ~5% of Sanders-supporters won’t vote *at all* if Sanders is not the DNC nominee.
• ~80% of Sanders-supporters will vote for the DNC nominee no matter who it is;
• ~15% of Sanders-supporters will vote Trump if Sanders is not the DNC
nominee;
• ~5% of Sanders-supporters won’t vote *at all* if Sanders is not the DNC nominee.
Also, consider:
voter enthusiasm. While to some this may seem an insignificant datapoint highlighted for the sake of creating biased headlines, it has implications for voter turnout for a candidate in the general election.
voter enthusiasm. While to some this may seem an insignificant datapoint highlighted for the sake of creating biased headlines, it has implications for voter turnout for a candidate in the general election.
(cont’d)
High enthusiasm for a candidate in a partisan primary has a tendency to excite the electorate in the general election, especially when an incumbent has relatively high disapproval and low excitement.
High enthusiasm for a candidate in a partisan primary has a tendency to excite the electorate in the general election, especially when an incumbent has relatively high disapproval and low excitement.
(cont’d)
Sanders has high enthusiasm not just with primary voters, but with big-personality swing voters as well, such as Joe Rogan, who influence large fan bases, whom one could argue make up a significant percentage of target swing voters.
Sanders has high enthusiasm not just with primary voters, but with big-personality swing voters as well, such as Joe Rogan, who influence large fan bases, whom one could argue make up a significant percentage of target swing voters.
Biden, by contrast, has polled extremely low in terms of voter enthusiasm, and it’s only gotten worse.
Furthermore, consider:
Rogan has explicitly stated he will vote for Trump if Sanders is not the DNC nominee. This is not something necessarily accounted for in the ~15% of DNC defectors currently supporting Sanders in the primary, and it has dire implications for the general.
Rogan has explicitly stated he will vote for Trump if Sanders is not the DNC nominee. This is not something necessarily accounted for in the ~15% of DNC defectors currently supporting Sanders in the primary, and it has dire implications for the general.
Lastly, consider:
The best indicator that Trump was going to win in 2016 was none other than what we observed with our own two eyes—the sheer size and enthusiasm his primary crowds, i.e. voter enthusiasm. The only Democrat to match that enthusiasm in 2020 has been Sanders.
The best indicator that Trump was going to win in 2016 was none other than what we observed with our own two eyes—the sheer size and enthusiasm his primary crowds, i.e. voter enthusiasm. The only Democrat to match that enthusiasm in 2020 has been Sanders.
While one could argue Sanders has already lost his primary, the fact of the matter is it’s not over until the DNC has spoken and there are many telltale similarities between Trump 2016 and Sanders 2020 that Dems ignore at democracy’s peril.
Too much has changed in the wake of #COVID19 and too much is at stake in the 2020 election for Democrats to simply ignore these points and proceed with Joe Biden. The Democratic Establishment has allowed political dogma, personality cults and groupthink to cloud its judgement.
Basic maths suggest it’s fallacious reasoning to blame Sanders-supporters for Clinton’s defeat in 2016, or any would-be Democratic defeat in 2020; however, it does bear mentioning the one mistake from 2016 we truly risk repeating... is listening to the Democratic Establishment.
