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1/ In declaring a state of emergency in 7 prefectures in Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was optimistic, saying that by asking citizens to significantly reduce human-to-human contact, “the expansion of infections can be turned to a decline in two weeks.” https://nyti.ms/2xRvinn
A few challenges: In absence of widespread testing, experts say there are likely thousands of undetected infections. Abe announced Japan would increase capacity to 20,000 a day. So far, Japan has rarely conducted even 1/2 of the 7,500 tests it now has ability to perform each day.
Leaders have focused messaging on the “3 Cs” — closed spaces where crowds meet in close proximity, with examples like karaoke bars and nightclubs. That means some people feel falsely safe in other situations. Surveys show about one in eight people have adjusted to work from home
State of emergency lacks teeth. Prefectural governors can shut schools and order building owners to contribute facilities for medical use, but authorities cannot take punitive action against those who disregard requests to stay inside or work remotely.
There have been worrying outbreaks in hospitals: At Keio Univ Hospital in Tokyo, 18 residents were infected after attending a dinner party. At another hospital in Ueno, at least 146 have been infected & 16 died. It’s possible healthcare workers brought infections to the hospitals
Medical experts worry Japan’s hospital capacity could quickly be overwhelmed. According to the Japanese Society of Intensive Care Medicine, Japan has five intensive care beds per 100,000 people, compared with close to 30 in Germany and 12 in Italy. https://nyti.ms/2xRvinn
And while I hear a lot of Japanese say that they are more protected than populations in other countries because of ubiquitous mask wearing, the recent spike in Tokyo suggests that the face coverings cannot provide total protection.
