QUESTION: U.K. PM @BorisJohnson's #COVID19 battle raises a BIG question. How will it impact security for heads of state & diplomats? We asked @fred_burton, former Dep. Chief of counter-terrorism at @StateDept Diplomatic Security Service. Follow this thread for the answer.

ANSWER: "Several practical and physical security challenges emerge for Diplomatic Security Service (DSS) special agents in nexus to the COVID-19 global pandemic.

First, on a practical level, how does one perform 24x7 close-protection for the Secretary of State or visiting dignitaries (if any are traveling) by maintaining a social distance? The Secret Service would be in that same boat.

In CONUS, there are also special protection services provided for the diplomatic community or resident foreign officials. These duties are a hybrid split between the USSS, DSS and local police departments, like the NYPD, who has been impacted hard by the virus.

Second, do the special agents posted abroad (known as Regional Security Officers or RSO's) at every U.S. embassy and consulate possess adequate personal protection equipment (PPE) and COVID testing kits? If so, how does one get tested for COVID overseas? Who does those tests?

The RSOs also need to look forward for how to handle issues once embassies return to full staffing. Widespread testing could pose some issues, while there will be continual problems as we see future waves/outbreaks of the virus until a vaccine is approved.

In many areas, the rate of violent crime is continuing to increase, despite the stay at home orders. As the economy tanks, RSOs are going to face a deteriorating security environment in many countries that will exacerbate existing problems.

Current threats aren't going away, but the staff that would usually monitor and mitigate those threats is understandably reduced. When does this blow up? This could be especially problematic in the cyber realm.

Thirdly, how does one protect a diplomatic mission remotely? You can't. It takes fixed posts and assets to include U.S. Marine Security Guard personnel, known as MGS's.

Let's also not forget that most diplomats live out on the local economy and require roving patrol coverages. What happens if the local cops assigned to these duties go down? In high-threat environments, like Baghdad and Beirut,

special attention is paid to never ending threat streams and counter-surveillance to look for hostile actors. These requirements necessitate highly skilled teams of security personnel working in and around the same gear and vehicles.

If team members are exposed, the ramp up time for getting trained personnel into the mix is problematic. In sum, the real question is this:

In our post-Benghazi world, is DSS staffed adequately to ensure they have enough agents to carry out their critical mission of safeguarding life and diplomatic property around-the-globe, in the midst of a pandemic? What happens if 25% to 40% of the agents are quarantined?"

Fred Burton is VP of Intelligence @Stratfor. Read more about him here: https://marcom.stratfor.com/people/189111 

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