What just happened in the Trump-Crozier-Modly affair?

Historians have seen this before. In authoritarian regimes, bureaucracies do not exist to function efficiently. They exist to serve the desires of the Leader.

But what if the leader is a capricious sociopath? 1/7

In order to succeed as a bureaucrat in such a regime, you must always strive to please the leader. In the absence of coherent plans and a policy process, you have to guess:

How can I please the leader, while also enhancing my own power in the hierarchy? 2/7

In this case, Capt Crozier embarrassed Trump by announcing that his ship was facing a health crisis, and that the DoD was doing nothing about it. A second-tier bag-carrier named Thomas Modly, acting SecNav, sees that he is well-placed to maneuver for maximum visibility. 3/7

Relieving Capt Crozier is going to win him plaudits from the leader. But humiliating Crozier will be even more delicious! Modly piles on, flying half-way around the world to publicly denounce Crozier in front of his former crew. He does an ugly, sniveling victory dance. 4/7

But Modly has misjudged. His antics have embarrassed the leader. Modly has made Trump look weak, cruel, vindictive. Modly must go. He is fired. 5/7

Who wins? Trump, of course. He will declare he has 'rescued' good ol' Cap't Crozier from the knaves in the deep state. Look for Trump to pivot quickly, with lots of pompous talk about "my military." 6/7

Who loses? DefSec Esper. He too misjudged the leader’s wishes. To survive, he'll be asked to prove his worth by undertaking some further outrage on behalf of the leader. And he’ll accept his punishment as the only path to redemption. The struggle goes on. 7/7