UK expected to face the highest #COVIDー19 death toll in Europe, accounting for 40 per cent of all European deaths from the virus. 😲 https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1247630226106077189
The prediction that the UK will have the second highest death toll from #COVIDー19 by August comes from Seattle-based @IHME_UW. If they're right, three weeks of nonchalance and the pursuit "herd immunity" will come to be seen as a catastrophic errors. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts
IHME is no fly-by-night operator. It's been called the "best organisation in the world at collecting data on diseases and mapping out why we fall ill. Its Global Burden of Disease study is a collaborative effort that's valued and used in every country" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/how-can-coronavirus-models-get-it-so-wrong
for the record @IHME_UW's prediction — which I hope is wrong — that 66,000 people will die from Covid-19 in the UK, giving us the highest death toll of any European country from the virus, has also been covered by numerous other titles round the world https://google.com/search?safe=active&rlz=1C5CHFA_enGB839GB839&biw=1920&bih=1089&tbs=sbd%3A1&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ALeKk00qYGVCxaZV_w_ZAAo78YYFccu0Wg%3A1586296869315&ei=JfiMXuTsEofIgQaRx7C4Dg&q=ihme+coronavirus+uk+66%2C000&oq=ihme+coronavirus+uk+66%2C000&gs_l=psy-ab.3...337419.339632.0.340126.7.7.0.0.0.0.150.610.6j1.7.0....0...1c.1.64.psy-ab..0.0.0....0.L4QpZ-TEux0
If you have concerns about the prediction, or the underlying data, please address them to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation - @IHME_UW - in Seattle, Washington State.
You can follow @Ian_Fraser.
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