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India's lockdown has led to ~50% drop in fruit and vegetable volume at Azadpur wholesale market in Delhi (Asia's largest wholesale fruit and veg market), though some signs of recovery. More from work with @BenRothEcon, @nadhanael: [1/N]
![India's lockdown has led to ~50% drop in fruit and vegetable volume at Azadpur wholesale market in Delhi (Asia's largest wholesale fruit and veg market), though some signs of recovery. More from work with @BenRothEcon, @nadhanael: [1/N]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVBtV2ZVAAEg2B5.png "India's lockdown has led to ~50% drop in fruit and vegetable volume at Azadpur wholesale market in Delhi (Asia's largest wholesale fruit and veg market), though some signs of recovery. More from work with @BenRothEcon, @nadhanael: [1/N]")
As we would predict with a negative supply shock, retail prices of food (not just fruit and veg) in Delhi are increasing more than usual, though only by around 5%. [2/N]
![As we would predict with a negative supply shock, retail prices of food (not just fruit and veg) in Delhi are increasing more than usual, though only by around 5%. [2/N]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVBt-6vVAAAq9rG.png "As we would predict with a negative supply shock, retail prices of food (not just fruit and veg) in Delhi are increasing more than usual, though only by around 5%. [2/N]")
The bigger problem then seems to be the breakdown in the supply chain, not inflation for poor consumers. Why is this essential market not functioning? Three explanations seem most likely (based on informal interviews with farmers, vendors, market officials). [3/N]
First, wholesale vendors are procuring less from farmers because retail vendors are demanding less. Why do they demand less? Because of increased barriers to selling (weekly markets closed, energy-intensive home delivery more necessary) and falling consumer demand. [4/N]
Second, because of interstate travel bans, out-of-state farmers cannot get their produce to Azadpur. Their produce is either wasted or sent to another local wholesale market within their state. This could mean some states actually have surpluses. [5/N]
Third, lockdown restrictions have caused a shortage of labour: fewer people to drive trucks to Azadpur, fewer people to unload stock. It is difficult to keep essential labourers labouring. [6/N]
We'll update these figures as more data comes in, and keep the latest code, data, figures available at http://mattlowe.site/teaching/ . We're also scraping similar data for other cities in India. [7/N]
This work would not have been possible without @DhirSimranjeet and @Toshan15566914. @DhirSimranjeet made a heroic effort to call all the key market players in the past week, @Toshan15566914 crushed the data prep. [N/N]
