Zurfi lives! You may have read about the anti-Zurfi coalition. This Hakim aide says it is falling apart.

A few comments follow on the current situation in Iraqi politics. I usually take a few days off tweeting when we are in production. https://twitter.com/AlkananeSafaa/status/1247605091244347392

First, ICYMI, my article for @SadaJournal last week. It is very general, covering 4 months in 1,300 words; Iraq nerds will probably not find anything new, but others might find it useful. https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/81443 

#InsideIraqiPolitics subscribers (who have actually read the issue) will know that Adnan al-Zurfi's candidacy for PM got off to a rocky start. He has a potential majority, but also faces still opposition from the Iran-aligned factions. Fierce opposition, in fact.

Opposition to Zurfi putatively solidified yesterday into a new coalition for intelligence director Mustafa al-Kathimi, but after 24 hours the putative anti-Zurfi coalition appears to be struggling. Zurfi's deadline is April 15 if I am counting the days correctly (so 8 days left).

Right now Zurfi seems to be holding firm, & here is Abadi's Nasr affirming that he has a majority and can form a govt. More importantly, Sadr & Hakim seem to be sticking with him. Without them he'd be doomed. https://twitter.com/AlTaghierTV/status/1247561828802203651

Zurfi, I should note, belongs to Abadi's Nasr. He has been the head of their parliamentary bloc during this term.

One point in my Sada article might require some clarification, and that is my statement that Iraq could be "insolvent" w/n less than 12 months. This is not due to external debt, which for Iraq is bearable & can be stretched out. The threat is "internal default" on basic payments.

In short: there is some operations spending that could be cut w/o enormous pain, but $6bn/month is my estimate for what Baghdad needs to avoid painful public sector cuts, non-payment of salaries, pensions, benefits, & shut-down of offices for lack of funds.