Quebec Public Health's modelling anticipates the province hitting peak hospitalizations within a few days of April 18, with plenty of hospital capacity to spare. 1/4
By the end of the month, the province expects to have at least 1,263 deaths. (The high-end disaster scenario allows for 8,860 deaths, but the province is tracking much closer to the low end.) 2/4
To return to the hospitalizations: The scenarios range, at peak, between 1400 and 3000. The good news is the province is tracking *below* the low end. The province cleard 6,000 hospital beds to get ready. 3/5
The two scenarios basically use as models Germany on the optimistic side and Italy on the pessimistic side. 4/5
On ICU stays, the province is also actually tracking well below Germany. The Germany scenario would put Quebec at 468 people in ICU by April 22. Quebec sits at 164. 5/5 (for now.)
Just need to add a correction: Portugal is sometimes used as a model, Germany other times. Will clarify later.
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