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The problem is that people are using the models incorrectly.
Every time a policy anywhere changes... The model is changed. It can never be static. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/dramatic-reduction-in-covid-19-disaster-projections/
Every time a policy anywhere changes... The model is changed. It can never be static. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/dramatic-reduction-in-covid-19-disaster-projections/
We can never know if the initial estimate was accurate. Once we reacted, that future could never come to pass.
That doesn't mean the model was right... Maybe it wasn't. But this discrepancy doesn't prove anything.
The other issue is if the model predicted the PEAK properly.
In fact this is the most important data point. It shows when states need to have their peak supplies in place, so they can accurately move reserves where and when needed.
On that, IHME has been pretty close.
In fact this is the most important data point. It shows when states need to have their peak supplies in place, so they can accurately move reserves where and when needed.
On that, IHME has been pretty close.
Again, believing any modeling woodland with the knowledge and data we have is false.
All it ever is, is a educated guess.
All it ever is, is a educated guess.
