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I spoke last week about why you shouldn't believe that the Gantz/Lapid split will do anything to their poll numbers. But here's a new poll from Smith showing their total number of seats dropping to 27. https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1247585232112541699
They had 29 in the previous Smith poll. So did the split actually harm their electoral prospects, and it just took a while for the public to realize that they split? I'm not so sure, for three reasons. https://knessetjeremy.com/2020/04/02/3rd-poll-since-blue-white-split-likud-41-gantz-ashkenazi-20-joint-list-16-lapid-yaalon-9-shas-9-future-coalition-83/
1) A drop of 2 seats is still well within the margin of error; we'd need more polls to be sure it's a sustained change.
2) While most political stories take time to penetrate the public consciousness, the existence of a split is communicated to respondents in the poll itself.
2) While most political stories take time to penetrate the public consciousness, the existence of a split is communicated to respondents in the poll itself.
3) Even if the shift is real, though, there have been major coalition negotiations and more coronavirus developments in the last week.
With better explanations available, there's no reason to believe that voters whose party split in two suddenly refused to support either half.
With better explanations available, there's no reason to believe that voters whose party split in two suddenly refused to support either half.
The rest of the poll mostly shows shifting of one seat here and there; as usual, these movements of 0.83% are not worth wasting your time on.
What is interesting, though, is that Meretz alone hits 7 seats - which is what L-G-M got last month *combined*.
What is interesting, though, is that Meretz alone hits 7 seats - which is what L-G-M got last month *combined*.
Where did these voters come from? Not Labor - Labor is still getting 2.2% in this poll, not enough to cross the threshold, but worth the 2-3 seats that the party got as part of L-G-M.
But the two parties to either side of Meretz (the Joint List and Yesh Atid) have maintained their strength; it was davka the Gantz side of the Blue & White split that lost the two seats.
Did voters move in a daisy chain, the same number leaving Gantz for Lapid and leaving Lapid for Meretz? Did they go straight from Gantz to Meretz, not trusting Lapid not to join the coalition too? Did Meretz randomly win the redistribution of Labor's lost seats?
Time will tell.
Time will tell.
