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A map going around today showing #Nashville #COVID19 cases has provoked messages along the lines of "Wow, such-and-such neighborhood is hardest hit."
I'm gonna do that annoying thread thing to show why that's not true, and then share some frustrations over how we use data.
I'm gonna do that annoying thread thing to show why that's not true, and then share some frustrations over how we use data.
The map displays fewer than 60 percent of confirmed #COVID19 cases. It does not account for population density; it's raw number of cases only.
It also doesn't indicate the nature of the reporting, but you can read between the lines here: https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/2020/04/07/covid-19-nashville-see-how-cases-break-down-zip-code/2960569001/
It also doesn't indicate the nature of the reporting, but you can read between the lines here: https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/2020/04/07/covid-19-nashville-see-how-cases-break-down-zip-code/2960569001/
The map displays all case positives since the first one was recorded a month ago. It doesn't account for rate of reporting, nor recovery. In other words, this is like a time-lapse video, taken over a month.
But it is displayed, naturally, like a snapshot -- a moment in time.
But it is displayed, naturally, like a snapshot -- a moment in time.
For health professionals, this is helpful. It indicates clustering, which can help them track and potentially contain cases.
From a policy, behavioral and political perspective, this map is practically useless.
From a policy, behavioral and political perspective, this map is practically useless.
Nothing in this map indicates we should do anything differently: we should all continue to stay at home and make only essential trips.
But you could interpret the map to think your area is "better" or "worse" than others, which could influence your behavior.
DO NOT DO THIS.
But you could interpret the map to think your area is "better" or "worse" than others, which could influence your behavior.
DO NOT DO THIS.
Metro officials have been pretty good about giving context to this map, but a visual is always going to win. As policymakers, we have to know that and communicate accordingly, and that might mean showing data differently.
The social distancing and related actions we are taking are working, even as case positives are increasing due to testing (and tests being processed). We must continue these actions, regardless of where we live.
And one final note, with a data point that really matters:
And one final note, with a data point that really matters:
