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A leading model used by the White House to chart the pandemic predicted that the U.S. may need fewer hospital beds and ventilators than previously projected and states may reach their peak of covid-19 deaths sooner than expected.
Not every model agrees. https://wapo.st/2RlOTD1
Not every model agrees. https://wapo.st/2RlOTD1
Experts continued to steel themselves for grim weeks ahead, noting that the model created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) conflicts with many other models showing higher equipment shortages, deaths and projected peaks. https://wapo.st/39SEKnU
Some state leaders have also grown increasingly concerned about how the federal government is using IHME’s lower estimates to deny states’ increasingly desperate requests for equipment and help in preparations. https://wapo.st/39SEKnU
The stark differences between the IHME model and dozens of others being created by states exposes the glaring lack of national models provided publicly by the White House or agencies such as the CDC for local leaders to use in planning or preparation. https://wapo.st/39SEKnU
Local leaders in the District said on Friday that their model estimates the outbreak in the nation’s capital will peak June 28.
The IHME model predicts the peak is coming in just days, on April 16. https://wapo.st/39SEKnU
The IHME model predicts the peak is coming in just days, on April 16. https://wapo.st/39SEKnU
The District’s model predicts hospitals will need 1,453 ventilators at the peak.
IHME predicts a need for only 107.
The District is using the IHME model as a best-case scenario and the more dire model to prepare for a likely surge. https://wapo.st/39SEKnU
IHME predicts a need for only 107.
The District is using the IHME model as a best-case scenario and the more dire model to prepare for a likely surge. https://wapo.st/39SEKnU
The danger of relying so heavily on one model is that model could be wrong or overly optimistic.
In states more populous than the District, that vast gap in planning and modeling could mean a life-or-death difference for tens of thousands of people. https://wapo.st/39SEKnU
In states more populous than the District, that vast gap in planning and modeling could mean a life-or-death difference for tens of thousands of people. https://wapo.st/39SEKnU
