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#DC: their model estimates the outbreak in the nation’s capital will peak June 28. @IHME_UW says peak is April 16. DC model predicts hospitals will need 1,453 ventilators at peak. IHME predicts 107. DC using the IHME model as a best-case & the more dire model to prepare.
“As a result, you have every state trying to create their own models to anticipate their needs. And you have one model like IHME being adopted as the national guide.”The danger of relying so heavily on one model is that model could be wrong or overly optimistic.
Some state leaders have also grown increasingly concerned about how the federal government is using IHME’s lower estimates to deny states’ increasingly desperate requests for equipment and help in preparations.
IHME model embraces an entirely different statistical approach, taking the trending curve of deaths from China, and “fitting” that curve to emerging death data from U.S. cities and counties to predict what might come next.
Many experts saw IHME as overly optimistic when it was launched March 26. Few U.S. states or cities are taking action as drastic as what was adopted in Wuhan, China- or even Northern Italy- in locking down residents. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/06/americas-most-influential-coronavirus-model-just-revised-its-estimates-downward-not-every-model-agrees/
