THREAD (1) For a full week now the #Corinavirus death rate in the US has been essentially flat: around 1,000 deaths per day. This is very good news and the implications are far-reaching https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

First, if this trend keeps up, it will prove the models to be wrong. Not just slightly wrong but wide off the mark. The models predicted 100,000-200,000 deaths with effective social distancing. Best-case scenario! Let’s remember this the next time we hear the sky is falling (2)

Second, it suggests we can cautiously consider ways to reopen the economy. Not because “social distancing worked” but because—using its own models—this whole thing was blown out of proportion. It’s not the apocalypse. When the apocalypse comes, we’ll know it (3)

Finally, Trump’s action in shutting down travel from China—and Europe—is probably the single most important reason this crisis has been contained in America. We don’t need a national lockdown because, through early action, to a significant degree, the virus was locked out (4)