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1/ As in my earlier threads, I'm looking carefully at the data for reasons to be amazingly hopeful as Pittsburgh and all of Pennsylvania deals with the current cases of Covid-19.
Yesterday @GovernorTomWolf said:
“The surge may not be as great as we once anticipated."
Yesterday @GovernorTomWolf said:
“The surge may not be as great as we once anticipated."
2/ I'm going to add some new data to what we talked about in my earlier threads. Then I'll point out a few things that I'd like to see more of from media and government agencies across the state.
3/ For those who didn't see my thread late Sunday:
https://bit.ly/3aRpNUo
The wildly cited IMHE model updated late Sunday and showed huge drops in resource and case projections in PA.
https://bit.ly/2UNu4CK
I saw some, but not much, media coverage of this astounding shift.
https://bit.ly/3aRpNUo
The wildly cited IMHE model updated late Sunday and showed huge drops in resource and case projections in PA.
https://bit.ly/2UNu4CK
I saw some, but not much, media coverage of this astounding shift.
4/ Again -- I'm not a doctor. Just an old reporter looking for hope in the facts!
Quick recap. Saturday the IMHE model projected over 2,000 deaths across PA by August 4. With assumptions of continued social distancing.
The Sunday model dropped that to projected 782 deaths.
Quick recap. Saturday the IMHE model projected over 2,000 deaths across PA by August 4. With assumptions of continued social distancing.
The Sunday model dropped that to projected 782 deaths.
5/ After the recap we'll look at current numbers going into Tuesday.
The "peak resource" day was moved up seven days to April 11.
The peak day for deaths across PA would be a few days later on April 15 when 32 people are projected to die.
New info?
The "peak resource" day was moved up seven days to April 11.
The peak day for deaths across PA would be a few days later on April 15 when 32 people are projected to die.
New info?
6/ There was some helpful new information from @PAHealthDept that builds on the new IMHE model.
But I have some requests for them as well.
This article is very helpful:
https://bit.ly/2Rh3dg2
So here's what we know going into Tuesday morning...
But I have some requests for them as well.
This article is very helpful:
https://bit.ly/2Rh3dg2
So here's what we know going into Tuesday morning...
7/ We've had 12,980 positive cases in PA and 162 deaths as of right now.
There were 1,470 new cases reported yesterday. But "the rate of growth has not been as steep as last week."
https://bit.ly/2Rlzjrb
Let's talk about resources and hospitalizations...
There were 1,470 new cases reported yesterday. But "the rate of growth has not been as steep as last week."
https://bit.ly/2Rlzjrb
Let's talk about resources and hospitalizations...
8/ With 12k cases - how many are in the hospital?
The state website says 1,145.
https://bitly.com/
At current projections on the peak resource day PA is expected to have a "surplus of some 14,000 beds."
https://bit.ly/34fPz2b
Even better news?
The state website says 1,145.
https://bitly.com/
At current projections on the peak resource day PA is expected to have a "surplus of some 14,000 beds."
https://bit.ly/34fPz2b
Even better news?
9/ The new model Sunday dropped peak ventilator demand in PA from close to 1k to just 267.
Sunday I pointed out that we have 4,000. That news has gotten bettter.
The @lehighvalley article puts that number 5,000 with more on the way.
So about 95% more than we may need.
Sunday I pointed out that we have 4,000. That news has gotten bettter.
The @lehighvalley article puts that number 5,000 with more on the way.
So about 95% more than we may need.
10/ Some confusion on hospitalizations. I mentioned the 1,145 total hospitalizations listed on the @PAHealthDept site.
It doesn't distinguish who is hospitalized right NOW.
Yesterday @SecretaryLevine said yesterday that there were 1,612 patients currently hospitalized.
It doesn't distinguish who is hospitalized right NOW.
Yesterday @SecretaryLevine said yesterday that there were 1,612 patients currently hospitalized.
11/ Not sure what that means.
But I'd like to see all our agencies being as clear as they can.
The @Allegheny_Co site lists 92 hospitalizations "past and present."
https://bit.ly/2wkMZeA
I'd like state and county sites break that out...
But I'd like to see all our agencies being as clear as they can.
The @Allegheny_Co site lists 92 hospitalizations "past and present."
https://bit.ly/2wkMZeA
I'd like state and county sites break that out...
12/ Many other states and national tracking sites do break that out.
Right now I'd like clarity on what @SecretaryLevine meant by 1,612 as currently hospitalized. She also indicated that 533 patients needed ventilators.
If 1,612 are currently hospitalized...
Right now I'd like clarity on what @SecretaryLevine meant by 1,612 as currently hospitalized. She also indicated that 533 patients needed ventilators.
If 1,612 are currently hospitalized...
13/ ... then we need to understand the 1,145 number on the @PAHealthDept site. There should be a midday update today.
But to go from 1,145 total (past and present) hospitalizations to 1,612 currently hospitalized would have been a huge jump yesterday.
True?
But to go from 1,145 total (past and present) hospitalizations to 1,612 currently hospitalized would have been a huge jump yesterday.
True?
14/ Let's hope reporters press on those fronts today.
These are not just numbers. Clarity and transparency give us confidence in our resources and response ability.
There is better news on the PPE front...
These are not just numbers. Clarity and transparency give us confidence in our resources and response ability.
There is better news on the PPE front...
15/ "Pennsylvania distributed more than 1.5 million N95 masks, 701,000 procedure hospital masks, 106,000 gowns, 560,000 sets of gloves, 990 goggles and 120,000 face shields..."
https://bit.ly/2V9fdRR
Enough? Not sure. But more is better.
https://bit.ly/2V9fdRR
Enough? Not sure. But more is better.
16/ As I indicated, some news reports mentioned the changes in the IMHE model for PA.
But I saw very little mention of how dramatically better the outlook for PA became.
Why is that?
BTW - on the IMHE link -- some tips: https://bit.ly/39PBiKJ
But I saw very little mention of how dramatically better the outlook for PA became.
Why is that?
BTW - on the IMHE link -- some tips: https://bit.ly/39PBiKJ
17/ If you click where it says "United States of America" -- that allows you to sort to the state-by-state projections.
Is the model accurate? Well -- we saw huge changes to it in 24 hours this weekend. So hard to say.
But the outlook certainly took an astounding turn.
Is the model accurate? Well -- we saw huge changes to it in 24 hours this weekend. So hard to say.
But the outlook certainly took an astounding turn.
18/ And the new data from commonwealth officials yesterday only added to that positive picture.
Let's celebrate that and stay the course.
Let's celebrate that and stay the course.
