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#Covid_19 math time. Still beating the same drum, but with new numbers.
# of confirmed cases in the US: 367,000
# of deaths: 10,981
Implied death rate: 3% (1-in-33)
Death rate in South Korea: 1-in-200 (6 times lower than US)
# of confirmed cases in the US: 367,000
# of deaths: 10,981
Implied death rate: 3% (1-in-33)
Death rate in South Korea: 1-in-200 (6 times lower than US)
Possibility #1: The death rate in South Korea is a LOT lower than it is in the US.
Possibility #2: The death rates are similar, but the US has a LOT more infections than the # of confirmed cases.
Possibility #2: The death rates are similar, but the US has a LOT more infections than the # of confirmed cases.
It seems possible that South Koreans fare better with the virus than do Americans, especially their women, who don't generally smoke. But a full factor of 6 difference? Seems implausible.
If the issue is lack of testing in the US, that implies a true number of US infections upwards of 2 million. Today. Right this second. Most of whom don't know they are sick. 1-in-150, give or take, but much higher in some places than others.
California may only be 1-in-450, while NY (state) could be up at 1-in-25, and Louisiana at 1-in-50. Now consider how many people are in & out of a large grocery store in an hour. Maybe 100? There's a reason the experts are now saying that if you don't NEED to shop, don't shop.
