.
Covid19 Corona SarsCov2 Sars2 THREAD #2
.
thread 1 from Jan28 to Apr06
thread 2 from Apr07
.
#Covid19 #Corona #SarsCov2 #Sars2
THREAD #1 Jan28-Apr06 - First tweet Jan 28
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1222151233076715521
.">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
THREAD #1 since Jan28 - 17th tweet on Feb 19: 73325 infected https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1230048883717345280
.">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
THREAD #1 (since Jan28) 34th tweet on March 6: outside China 8500 infected https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1235915734976471041
.">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
THREAD #1 (since Jan28) 57th tweet March 11: Italy !!! https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1237752560410333184">https://twitter.com/drandreas... .
THREAD #1 (since Jan28) 65th tweet March 12th: 127,863 infected. Average doubling took 9.3 days: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1238230727709294592">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
China: containment SUCCESSFUL !
THREAD #1 (since Jan 28) tweet 78: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1239005558088388608">https://twitter.com/drandreas... .
dead: 1 jumbo jet crash / day, doubling every 3.5 days. March 15 tweet #87 of THREAD #1 (since Jan28) https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1239126957524242433">https://twitter.com/drandreas... .
THREAD #1 is 50 days old, 106th tweet: 167907 infected https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1239371740893102081">https://twitter.com/drandreas... .
THREAD #1 tweet #117: "tenfold every ten days = doubling every 3 days" https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1239764804400709633">https://twitter.com/drandreas... .
Singapore had the HIGHEST number cases outside China initially! THREAD #1 tweet #127 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1239821815238799361">https://twitter.com/drandreas... .
Germany exponential explosion 27% per day. 14k cases. March 20th. #THREAD #1 tweet #170
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1241028315340779520">https://twitter.com/drandreas... .
13% CFR (Lethality) worldwide = 14,455 dead / 111,413 closed cases, with an outcome. Tweet #189 in THREAD #1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1241880179456258051">https://twitter.com/drandreas... .
Tests per 1 million population
UAE 13000, SouthKorea 6000, Australia 4500, Italy 3500, Germany 2000, Austria 1800, UK 1000, Iran 1000, France 600, Finland 500, USA 300, Vietnam 160, Japan 120, SouthAfrica 110, Colombia 80, Brazil 14.
Tweet #207 of thread #1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1242571215312650240">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
67 --> 11 --> 4 --> 2 days, for each 100k infected. Tweet #231 of thread #1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1243316600943579142">https://twitter.com/drandreas... .
> 50 doctors died ! Tweet #245 of thread #1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1244162571780964354">https://twitter.com/drandreas... .
SouthKorea SUCCESS: down to < 100 new cases / day!! (population 51 million) Tweet #258 of thread #1, March 30: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1244686550644011008">https://twitter.com/drandreas... .
6800 free ICU beds with ventilators, 951 in use for #Covid19 cases. Germany March 30. Tweet #270 of Thread #1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1244939908281761792">https://twitter.com/drandreas... .
855,007 cases on April 1st. Two tenfolds and one doubling, since thread #1 beginning. Tweet #279: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1245131955542384640">https://twitter.com/drandreas... .
Germany April 1st:
(RL) 71784 inf, 775 dead, 10683 recovered.
(RKI) 61913 inf; +4615 new=+8.1%; 583 dead.
(JHU) inf 71808, dead 775, recovrd 16100.
(WOM) 2675 serious=4.9%. 775 dead=4.6% tCFR.
THREE Tweets #280-283 of thread #1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1245185382624436226">https://twitter.com/drandreas... .
Example born 1970-1980:

Lucky:
84.2% mild (~roll a dice, get NO six)
0.6% no symptom at all (1 of 167 people)

Likely lasting damage:
14.4% severe (~flip 3 coins, all heads up)
0.8% critical (friend of friend, if all had 11 friends)

Tweet #305 of Thread #1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246012627479941121">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
Infection channel percentages approx 47 pre + 6 asympt + 38 sympt + 10 envir = portions of R0=2.0.
Tweet #310 of thread #1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246256339627716672">https://twitter.com/drandreas... .
Countries AND regions comparison, loglin plots. Yes, different amounts of testing causes very different ABSOLUTE numbers; but not different GRADIENT = steepness. (Yes, INCREASE of testing temporarily causes SOME extra gradient). Tweet #318 of thread #1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246639180077244421">https://twitter.com/drandreas... .
#TestingCapacity increase calculator NEW sheet. Avg increase FI>AT>FR>DE>IT>UAE in 18-23 days until today.

Please extend more countries: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pr76pkb3LBTpgmcMtYRTvG_g7C5CjDoAsG1WjFHiPig/">https://docs.google.com/spreadshe... (File ... Make a copy ...).

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💙" title="Blue heart" aria-label="Emoji: Blue heart">Thanks a LOT to @_Lady_Charlotte for updated numbers: https://twitter.com/_Lady_Charlotte/status/1247554488522637312">https://twitter.com/_Lady_Cha... !
Germany on 401 districts level: #Prevalence & #Mortality, plus whole country simple statistics; auto-updated. Tweet #319 of Thread #1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246639968702861312">https://twitter.com/drandreas... new pics: screenshots 14/April/2020 - now also googlesheet shortcut at http://tiny.cc/kreise ">https://tiny.cc/kreise&qu... URL abbreviator
Germany on 401 districts level: #Prevalence & #Mortality, plus whole country simple statistics; auto-updated. Tweet #319 of Thread #1: https://twitter.com/drandreas... new pics: screenshots 14/April/2020 - now also googlesheet shortcut at https://tiny.cc/kreise&qu... URL abbreviator
Germany on 401 districts level: #Prevalence & #Mortality, plus whole country simple statistics; auto-updated. Tweet #319 of Thread #1: https://twitter.com/drandreas... new pics: screenshots 14/April/2020 - now also googlesheet shortcut at https://tiny.cc/kreise&qu... URL abbreviator
Germany crossed 100k known infected on April 5th - Tweet #320 of Thread #1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246883964910010368">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
Above summarizes 330 tweets with focus on numbers (infected dead tested...). Thread #1 contains other viewpoints too. Use above as jump targets.

NOW BACK to the VERY BEGINNING:
IF countries make mistakes then the 1st days are worst, due to avalanches of later-cascaded infections.
4474 cases on January 28th = my first screenshot of JohnsHopkins dashboard = tweet #2 of thread #1 = obviously the #NewCoronaVirus was conceived to be a serious problem already. https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1222178443586080768

"Disaster">https://twitter.com/drandreas... movies start with scientists being ignored"
Initially the #ExponentialGrowth was 50-54% PER DAY (perhaps also because of the catching up of "known infected" with the "yet uncounted infected"). Tweet #3 in Thread #1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1222180706467680256">https://twitter.com/drandreas... . Jan28th.
Some #ExponentialFitFunctions, early phase:
+48%/day infected, China
+35%/day infected elsewhere (but: see previous tweet)
+26%/day recovered
+39%/day deaths
needs: LogLin plot !
prediction: SIR model = not unlimited growth !
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1222510924474601477">https://twitter.com/drandreas... = Tweet #6 Thread #1. Jan29th.
Intro: #DoublingDays easier concept than %growth
2.21 DDs = infected China
2.90 DDs = infected elsewhere
2.51 DDs = recovered China
2.60 DDs = deaths China
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1223566413274714113">https://twitter.com/drandreas... tweet #7 thread #1, Feb1st: more data = better fit; known cases catching up. Still #ExponentialGrowth!
Example 5 phases #epidemics: Curve BEGINS as #ExponentialGrowth then turned to #LinearGrowth by intervention. Then enough people understand: Once R0<1 epidemics can die out. Until re-imported...

RealWorldData neighbor-neighbor province #Jiangsu #江苏省 (capital #Nanjing #南京市)
N.B.: The "history approach" of thread #1 was interrupted for >ONE week, in order to write a long text about all this. I have possibly missed really important news between April 6th and April 15th.

Sorry for incomplete and delayed ... news. Only some highlights, following.
A trustworthy CoronaApp MUST be OpenSource! https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1247682098829430785">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
Herd immunity (without vaccine) = wrong. https://twitter.com/tagesthemen/status/1247632362076135424">https://twitter.com/tagesthem...
Hey you moronic #CoronaDeniers out there: "just like the flu", right? https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1247884285333266434">https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser...
Surviving Corona but "crippled for life" can be an outcome. "Don& #39;t listen to the maniacs" says survivor @FrauDoktorJulie who describes herself as an "old, frail woman" now, after #Covid19: https://twitter.com/FrauDoktorJulie/status/1247923014630551555">https://twitter.com/FrauDokto...
Northermost German #SchleswigHolstein played with fire, discussing EasterParties of 10 people. Nothing might come from it OR additional deaths 20-30 days later. https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1248343731717144576

Some">https://twitter.com/drandreas... #EasterDeaths will have been caused likely by simple-minded, mask-less, EasterShoppers...
New & interesting study with N=1010 in a small village "Gangelt" (population 11,634) which was the second Hotspot in Germany - not ski but carneval maniacs ;-)

Much criticism of @hbergprotokoll has been published in past days, one is this early article https://twitter.com/Karl_Lauterbach/status/1248602029783580674">https://twitter.com/Karl_Laut...
IF their 0.37% mortality was correct (so 1 in 270 population dies) and ALL countries had an equally good health system as Germany, and R0=3, then this " #LowMortality" (which maniac called that low??)...

would cause 19 million deaths minimum IF not stopped https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1248421408230670336">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
LateApril / earlyMay #EasterDeaths are not unlikely- due to densely packed supermarkets, with EasterShopping fanatics. AND: Who had been trained by public egoists (politicians experts influencers) to repeat the silly "masks don& #39;t protect ME" barbarism.
:-( https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1248427572309815302">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
Some (minor) misuse of German CoronaHelp money. Scammers& #39; phishing site fooled 4000 companies; supermarket billionaire(!) asking for >10^8 Euros support; and CAR companies are TAKING public money but PAYING "profit dividends" to shareholders! #DarkSide https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😱" title="Face screaming in fear" aria-label="Emoji: Face screaming in fear"> https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1248544815656157184">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
infected = 0.3% in Austrian random, representative PCR testing with N=1544 people, they found 5 infected (one in 309). "prevalence study". April 1-6 https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/oesterreich-corona-101.html">https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/o...
Coronavirus in Österreich: Wie hoch ist die Dunkelziffer?

In Österreich sind deutlich mehr Menschen mit dem Coronavirus infiziert als die offizielle Statistik ausweist. Laut einer Dunkelziffer-Studie sind es knapp dreimal so viele Menschen. Von Clemens...

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/oesterreich-corona-101.html
"SARS-CoV-2 infects T lymphocytes through its spike protein-mediated membrane fusion" @nature 07 April 2020

"COVID-19 patients had very low T-cells" https://twitter.com/CurlyJungleJake/status/1248161735455830016">https://twitter.com/CurlyJung...
Some countries are more progressed than others, in handling their first wave https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1248913565227966466">https://twitter.com/tomaspuey...
Gangelt study in some cases found surprisingly short incubation periods. My hypothesis: Weakened immune system, due to intoxication with https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🍺" title="Beer mug" aria-label="Emoji: Beer mug">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🍻" title="Clinking beer mugs" aria-label="Emoji: Clinking beer mugs">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🍷" title="Wine glass" aria-label="Emoji: Wine glass">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥂" title="Clinking glasses" aria-label="Emoji: Clinking glasses">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🍸" title="Cocktail glass" aria-label="Emoji: Cocktail glass">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🍹" title="Tropical drink" aria-label="Emoji: Tropical drink"> https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1249517100458225665">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
Hello @TiloJung - any updates about this? Is the situation still the same? Are any of the people in this video ill now? How many family members have they infected? Is that place controlled by police at all? Or must citizens organize private militia, lol ? https://twitter.com/TiloJung/status/1247568918685929475">https://twitter.com/TiloJung/...
Might be OUTDATED, it& #39;s 1 month old. But still... great: https://twitter.com/radio_ORANGE/status/1239137714303311872">https://twitter.com/radio_ORA...
... by order of the DALEKS ... https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤣" title="Rolling on the floor laughing" aria-label="Emoji: Rolling on the floor laughing"> https://twitter.com/Sandford_Police/status/1246125769539162113">https://twitter.com/Sandford_...
oops ... even DEATH COUNTS can be under-estimated https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1247458186300456960">https://twitter.com/ChrisGile...
#JackDorsey is moving $1,000,000,000 worth of equity to fund global #Covid19 relief

Bravo @jack https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🙏" title="Folded hands" aria-label="Emoji: Folded hands">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👏" title="Clapping hands sign" aria-label="Emoji: Clapping hands sign">

Twitter cofounder & CEO https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Dorsey">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack... https://twitter.com/jack/status/1247616214769086465">https://twitter.com/jack/stat...
PLEASE you & #39;democratic& #39; majority, sit down NOW & THINK HARD for at least 1 HOUR, how it happened that you & your loved ones voted for DESPICABLE MORONS, for ALL your lives.

Please. We need YOU to wake up!

YOU are responsible for many DEAD UK PEOPLE. You! https://twitter.com/Linuzifer/status/1247271419957915653">https://twitter.com/Linuzifer...
R0 = 3.8 to 8.9 ?!

"Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9)."
"Disclaimer: Early release articles are not considered as final versions." https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1247872359312351232">https://twitter.com/DrEricDin...
Get "paid sick leave" doctor& #39;s certificate ON THE PHONE. Do NOT walk into the doctor& #39;s office for that! https://twitter.com/BMG_Bund/status/1242744635044384770">https://twitter.com/BMG_Bund/...
#Canada: "$2000 / person month" is the right amount?

--> Chapter "(2.8) #PandemicBasicIncome"

in http://tiny.cc/ptools ">https://tiny.cc/ptools&qu... = https://medium.com/@andreaskruger/pandemic-tools-for-minds-ptfm-v12-8054724344a8

FOUR">https://medium.com/@andreask... months to get infection numbers to ZERO? China needed 38 days only ... Anyways, very interesting: https://twitter.com/BradReason/status/1244813791029755906">https://twitter.com/BradReaso...
German voices AGAINST #HerdImmunityWithoutVaccine " #DurchSeuchung"
Interesting thread: https://twitter.com/AscotBlack/status/1250068116706660355

(">https://twitter.com/AscotBlac... also see chapters (1.2.3) (2.2) and (3) in http://tiny.cc/ptools ">https://tiny.cc/ptools&qu... = https://medium.com/@andreaskruger/pandemic-tools-for-minds-ptfm-v12-8054724344a8">https://medium.com/@andreask... )
Selected a few of my tweets on that. Scroll UP from this, 9 tweets same topic: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1250758018985127938">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
Swiss Doctor MUST READ

"XiJinping was still nice when he said that Europe had quickly become the global center of the pandemic because of its & #39; #narcissism& #39;...
...add: because of its arrogance, ignorance and unspeakable know-it-all."

Prof #PaulRobertVogt: https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/07/covid-19-eine-zwischenbilanz-oder-eine-analyse-der-moral-der-medizinischen-fakten-sowie-der-aktuellen-und-zuk%C3%BCnftigen-politischen-entscheidungen/">https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/0...
COVID-19 - eine Zwischenbilanz oder eine Analyse der Moral, der medizinischen Fakten, sowie der...

DMZ – FORSCHUNG / MEDIZIN / POLITIK ¦ GASTKOMMENTAR von Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt Überlegungen eines besorgten Schweizer Bürgers Vorwort: wieso nehme ich überhaupt Stellung? Aus 5...

https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/07/covid-19-eine-zwischenbilanz-oder-eine-analyse-der-moral-der-medizinischen-fakten-sowie-der-aktuellen-und-zuk%C3%BCnftigen-politischen-entscheidungen/
Some Europeans are more humane than others: https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1248658937903230977">https://twitter.com/bopinion/...
PLEASE you & #39;democracy majorities& #39;, sit down & THINK HARD for one 3 hours: How could it happen that you & your loved ones have elected MONSTERS for ALL your lives?

Please. We need YOU to wake up!

YOU are responsible for many DEAD US AMERICANS -you VOTERS. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1248708154084536322">https://twitter.com/DrEricDin...
64:36 ~ male vs female #Covid19deaths
(even though infections are approx 50:50) https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1248688175649828871">https://twitter.com/DrEricDin...
approx 15% severe+critical; 85% mild+none
https://twitter.com/HarryIWood/status/1248720123097219073
"not">https://twitter.com/HarryIWoo... rolling a six on multiple dice rolls" = I made a simple(!) maths tutorial what those probabilities mean (IF you are NOT a total egoist, i.e.) when combined:
http://tiny.cc/stoch ">https://tiny.cc/stoch&quo... = https://medium.com/@andreaskruger/stochastics-and-quarantine-buddies-2ced2c20da78">https://medium.com/@andreask...
Attention #maths: AVERAGES can be an illusion !

Example: in "scaleFree degreeDistribution networks" #Scale-free_networks">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_network #Scale-free_networks">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comp... many observables are NOT Gauss distributed - so there IS NO "center" around which the data clusters.

Look at a real world example: https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1248661596177485824">https://twitter.com/tomaspuey...
micro-droplets, aerosols - #MaskHaters are dangerous - and the LOUDER they speak, the more risky they are https://twitter.com/ilkeryoldas/status/1248795900882944000">https://twitter.com/ilkeryold...
Most probable cause of death in US now:
Not heart attack, not cancer - but #Covid19 https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1247923473273565184">https://twitter.com/RARohde/s...
In #Wuhan it was found that mortality & lethality rate for staff & patients fell only after the WORK SHIFT was SHORTENED to 6 hours.

No one can concentrate for 12 hours.

Arrogant Europeans: #LearnFromChina! https://twitter.com/Gode_fridus/status/1248859663753457664">https://twitter.com/Gode_frid...
Some #covid19patients have very low #Tcells: Means your immune system itself gets attacked; harder to clear the virus out of your system; and more easily infected by other things. https://twitter.com/CurlyJungleJake/status/1248161735455830016">https://twitter.com/CurlyJung...
leading to #ImmunoSuppression ... https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1248890389760802816">https://twitter.com/DrEricDin...
"What happened is inexplicably incredible ...the greatest gift ever unwrapped. Not the deaths, not the virus, but #TheGreatPause. It is ...profound"

Prepare for #TheUltimateGaslighting
(manipulation into doubting your sanity)
You are not crazy, my friends https://forge.medium.com/prepare-for-the-ultimate-gaslighting-6a8ce3f0a0e0">https://forge.medium.com/prepare-f...
Prepare for the Ultimate Gaslighting*

You are not crazy, my friends.

https://forge.medium.com/prepare-for-the-ultimate-gaslighting-6a8ce3f0a0e0
1937-2020 RIP John Conway "GameOfLife"

@xkcdComic @xkcd2 perfect: https://twitter.com/xkcdComic/status/1249750675702943745">https://twitter.com/xkcdComic...
@fermatslibrary maths is simple https://twitter.com/fermatslibrary/status/1249318866355998720
"zero-player">https://twitter.com/fermatsli... game", cellular automaton https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conway%27s_Game_of_Life
JHC">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conw... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Horton_Conway

John">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John... died of #Covid19 on 11 April 2020
Germany lockdown FLAWED: R0~1.0 approx!!
HARDEN the SHUT DOWN. NOT soften!

See http://tiny.cc/ptools ">https://tiny.cc/ptools&qu... --> (1.2.5) --> Hypothesis

How to get to more accurate numbers:
https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Neue-RKI-Corona-Fall-Studie-Einfluss-der-Kontaktsperre-eher-maessig-4702096.html
Orig">https://www.heise.de/newsticke... Bulletin: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/Ausgaben/17_20_SARS-CoV2_vorab.pdf">https://www.rki.de/DE/Conten... by
#MatthiasAnDerHeiden #OsamahHamouda @RKI_de
ANY softening wrong: "... ist JEDE Lockerung FALSCH"

Prof. Michael E Meyer-Hermann @Helmholtz_HZI
@zdf @HeuteJournal #CoronaKrise Min 01:15 = https://twitter.com/heutejournal/status/1250533807112978434">https://twitter.com/heutejour...

Please read chapter "(2.3) Economy First" in http://tiny.cc/ptools ">https://tiny.cc/ptools&qu... & for how to solve it instead: "(2.8) PBI"
Corona & Psyche: Fear stress & loneliness | philosophy& #39;s finest hour | 14 Apr 2020 | #srfKultur #srfSternstunde

@YvesBossart1 speaks with psychology professor #AndreasMaercker and psychiatrist #SteffiWeidt.

German + Subtitles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1jhWjORN-w">https://www.youtube.com/watch... https://twitter.com/srfkultur/status/1248990186932822018">https://twitter.com/srfkultur...
Some ARTISTS on Earth are doing remarkable stuff.
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1250867500914487296">https://twitter.com/drandreas... <-- thread = see FriSatSunday!!
"Decentralized Privacy-Preserving Proximity Tracing" https://github.com/dp-3t ">https://github.com/dp-3t&quo... open source!

This researcher exits the PEPP-PT project: https://twitter.com/marcelsalathe/status/1251045213415575552">https://twitter.com/marcelsal...
DP^3T

Decentralized Privacy-Preserving Proximity Tracing - DP^3T

https://github.com/dp-3t
Estimating infectious disease parameters

mean generation intervall
Singapore 5.20 (95%CI 3.78-6.78) days.
Tianjin 3.95 (95%CI 3.01-4.91) days

pre-symptomatic transmission
Singapore 48% (95%CI 32-67%)
Tianjin 62% (95%CI 50-76%)

Incubation period mean 5.2
https://twitter.com/marcelsalathe/status/1251441184980992001">https://twitter.com/marcelsal...
"Sätze die über Streecks persönliches Konto auf [twitter] verbreitet wurden, sind kein Zufallsprodukt ...wortgleich in Konzept der Kommunikationsagentur Storymachine ... lesen sich wie ... Drehbuch für die Inszenierung der Studie und ihrer erhofften Ziele" https://www.capital.de/wirtschaft-politik/corona-studie-der-plan-hinter-dem-heinsberg-protokoll">https://www.capital.de/wirtschaf...
Corona-Studie: der Plan hinter dem „Heinsberg-Protokoll“ - Capital.de

Die Corona-Studie aus Heinsberg gilt als wegweisende Untersuchung im Kampf gegen das Virus. Ein internes PR-Konzept der Agentur Storymachine zeigt, wie

https://www.capital.de/wirtschaft-politik/corona-studie-der-plan-hinter-dem-heinsberg-protokoll
Covid19 tests per population, by countries, 17/April/2020. https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1251216765893455875">https://twitter.com/Peston/st...
36 flights with "medical stuff" from China to Austria https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1251556095371481090">https://twitter.com/CGTNOffic...
Basic stuff really. Lol.
You MUST assume people are dumb!?

Pic taken from -admittedly mildly informative- SEX PDF by NYC government: https://www1.nyc.gov/home/search/index.page?search-terms=sex+covid19

One">https://www1.nyc.gov/home/sear... of the best educational systems on Earth can be found in USA. Just not for every citizen. What a #BarbaricSociety ...
New intelligent rule (scroll up) for phone solution ... abolished again: must see your doctor in person for "paid sick leave" certificate - EVEN WHEN YOU SUSPECT Covid19! Humans don& #39;t matter anymore ... https://twitter.com/DerStevieWer/status/1251487177420218371">https://twitter.com/DerStevie...
But: "Rule applies from now until June 23rd" (health ministry, @jensspahn) https://twitter.com/BMG_Bund/status/1242744635044384770">https://twitter.com/BMG_Bund/...
"Corona: The unbearable incompetence of Jens Spahn" April 18, 2020 Alexander Unzicker https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Corona-Die-unertraegliche-Inkompetenz-des-Jens-Spahn-4705173.html">https://www.heise.de/tp/featur...
Corona: Die unerträgliche Inkompetenz des Jens Spahn

Obwohl es praktisch nichts gibt, was er richtig gemacht hat, präsentiert sich der Gesundheitsminister nun als Retter Deutschlands. Ein Kommentar

https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Corona-Die-unertraegliche-Inkompetenz-des-Jens-Spahn-4705173.html
FoxNews is back to killing people, too https://twitter.com/existentialfish/status/1251497219628445696">https://twitter.com/existenti...
Obligation to go to school = infects some parents = must sue reckless government for millions of € IF outbreak in school harms ANY vulnerable parents https://twitter.com/ismail_kupeli/status/1251615768166400005

Logical,">https://twitter.com/ismail_ku... intelligent solution: allow home schooling, give up obligation for presence?
Or: #SchulBoykott?
UK (VOTERS& #39; !!!) fail:
* inquiry into those "lost" 5 weeks from January 24
* previous outbreaks taught overresponding is better
* failings in February may have cost thousands of lives
* 50 doctors nurses & NHS workers died

@TheSundayTimes April 19th 2020 https://twitter.com/RichardAiken17/status/1251743741481754624">https://twitter.com/RichardAi...
VOTERS please wake up; in democracy, YOU are responsible! Stop voting for morons like you did for decades now ... https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1250407621686890497">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
Do NOT OBEY ... if anti-humane politics is risking human lives? https://twitter.com/danielglass71/status/1251742479826792459">https://twitter.com/danielgla...
SimpleMindedNess KILLS.
Dumb people are DANGEROUS. https://twitter.com/StZ_NEWS/status/1251145671060549633">https://twitter.com/StZ_NEWS/...
21% dead = 160,835 deaths / 761,304 cases with an outcome. https://twitter.com/HansHuckebein7/status/1251788138541920256">https://twitter.com/HansHucke...
Simulations can help https://tagesspiegel.de/wissen/alarmierende-covid-19-modellrechnungen-zehn-tage-nach-schuloeffnung-schnellen-die-patientenzahlen-hoch/25741744.html">https://tagesspiegel.de/wissen/al...
Zehn Tage nach Schulöffnung schnellen die Patientenzahlen hoch

Was passiert, wenn verschiedene Maßnahmen in der Coronakrise getroffen oder aufgehoben werden? Ein Modell der TU Berlin simuliert, wie sich dann Covid-19 in der Bevölkerung ausbreitet.

https://tagesspiegel.de/wissen/alarmierende-covid-19-modellrechnungen-zehn-tage-nach-schuloeffnung-schnellen-die-patientenzahlen-hoch/25741744.html
Wuhan was cleverer than most places https://twitter.com/lovinurbanism/status/1251805157840629760">https://twitter.com/lovinurba...
Beautiful visualization: Estimating an S-curve is difficult, until it& #39;s slowing down below linear growth: https://twitter.com/clcrozier/status/1251148890595708938">https://twitter.com/clcrozier...
"Sie alle waren keine schweren Fälle ... sie gelten als genesen. Tauchen können sie aber alle nicht mehr. Die Schäden an der Lunge sind irreversibel... sind wahrscheinlich lebenslang Patienten, da geht es nicht darum, ob sie wieder tauchen oder nicht ..."
https://www.rainews.it/tgr/amp/articoli/2020/04/ContentItem-6708e11e-28dc-4843-a760-e7f926ace61c.html">https://www.rainews.it/tgr/amp/a...
" #MockDown" is the new term for our

German #PseudoLockDown

(while many nonessential nonremote workers are still made into SPREADERS, so they and their loved ones are sacrificed for profits of the few ...and new infections per day stay in the thousands) https://twitter.com/strmsn/status/1251798619533033473">https://twitter.com/strmsn/st...
Last night& #39;s @WHO benefit concert #LiveStream, organized by @LadyGaga, collected 128,000,000 US-$.

8h video still available. Some screenshot pics in this tweet (I watched only the last third): https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1251705275431739392

Please">https://twitter.com/drandreas... alert me of cool #LiveStreams in that ^ thread, thx.
The CLEVER way is:

a) R~0.2 --> i.e. HARDEN the lockdown
b) wait a bit until new cases low
c) #TestAndTrace EVERY SINGLE case

But "clever" you only get in ... China?

Our politics& #39; #EconomyFirst focus ... HARMS THE ECONOMY! https://twitter.com/Karl_Lauterbach/status/1251966357752688645">https://twitter.com/Karl_Laut...
New cases must probably be in the low 100s, only then it& #39;s possible to #TestAndTrace them all, right? https://twitter.com/FSHornschild/status/1252166375273041920">https://twitter.com/FSHornsch...
Gov destroys OUR money!

Alternative #PandemicBasicIncome:
nonessential jobs ALL shutdown.
No rent levels city&countryside.

Wuhan needed 38 days only!
7.23 months =€1.2 trillion / 83 mio HUMANS / €1999 per month per HUMAN

SILLY reason for irresponsible WASTING: #ClassIdeology
+ consequence of their #ClassIdeology hypercomplicated CoronaHelp scheme:

They WASTED TIME; lost time they can NOT spend on FIGHTING THE VIRUS. Which is thus still going strong.

See chapters (2.8) and (1.2.5) and (1.2.6) in this collection of mind tools https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1250575782193369093">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
These instructions how to wear a mask ... are complete? They look pretty good: https://twitter.com/rbb24/status/1251898210618085377">https://twitter.com/rbb24/sta...
Mask introduction, 110 seconds, German language - Learn from a Chinese. #JunjieShiGottschalk 时俊杰 at #HartAberFair:
1 HEALTH & ECONOMY might want the SAME strategy
2 Consider to DRY OUT the virus, radically

Prof. Michael E Meyer-Hermann
@Helmholtz_HZI

blabla @AnneWill BUT minutes 13:50-18:15 and 21:58-23:32 and 45:12-47:48 = too long for twitter, watch it e.g. here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRIeQW5Su8g">https://www.youtube.com/watch...
?? #pLai3ΔenvLuc2 ??
"Virologe LucMontagnier -2008 für seine Erforschung des HI-Virus #HIV mit dem #Nobelpreis ausgezeichnet- geht davon aus, dass das #SarsCoV2 Virus NICHT von einem Tier übertragen worden ist, sondern in einem Labor entstanden sein muss"
https://www.heise.de/tp/features/pLai3-envLuc2-Wurde-mit-HIV-Pseudovirus-das-Coronavirus-fuer-den-Menschen-gefaehrlich-4705632.html!">https://www.heise.de/tp/featur...
Oil price is NEGATIVE (!)

No one wants the commodity that kills civilization & ecosphere anyway; its addiction had caused horrible wars with millions of deaths & refugees until today!

Now a simple virus is conquering oil.

Not all bad in #PandemicTimes? https://twitter.com/BrettFleishman/status/1252323999905771520">https://twitter.com/BrettFlei...
"... an exponentially fast return to normality. A country such as the UK ... could be reunified within 2-4 months"
"Green zones: a mathematical proposal for how to exit from the COVID-19 lockdown"
19/4/2020 M.Oliu-Barton Paris, B.Pradelski Oxford https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/green-zones-a-mathematical-proposal-for-how-to-exit-from-the-covid-19-lockdown-ec3ea698f2">https://www.weforum.org/agenda/20...
Green zones: a mathematical proposal for how to exit from the COVID-19 lockdown

The proposal comes from a group of mathematicians and economists who specialise in modelling random and uncertain situations.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/green-zones-a-mathematical-proposal-for-how-to-exit-from-the-covid-19-lockdown-ec3ea698f2
Denmark, thread. https://twitter.com/NordlichtL/status/1252348367637635074">https://twitter.com/Nordlicht...
Pulse oximeter https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1252448266211467264">https://twitter.com/DrEricDin...
Rant Thread, substantial criticism
https://twitter.com/pavel23/status/1252529489067859969

Why">https://twitter.com/pavel23/s... is better data HIDDEN or NOT COLLECTED about WHERE many infections are happening, in Germany?

Data quality is poorer than in other countries (esp weekend fluctuations) and not getting better. https://twitter.com/pavel23/status/1252529489067859969">https://twitter.com/pavel23/s...
"... mutations would increase its infectivity.
To verify [they] infected cells with strains carrying different mutations. The most aggressive strains could generate 270 times as much viral load as weakest type. These strains also killed cells the fastest." https://scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coronavirus-mutations-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study">https://scmp.com/news/chin...
Coronavirus’s ability to mutate ‘has been vastly underestimated’

The most aggressive strains of Sars-CoV-2 could generate 270 times as much viral load as the least potent type.

https://scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coronavirus-mutations-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study
"The true extent of #Britain& #39;s COVID-19 death toll was more than 40% higher than the government& #39;s daily figures indicated as of April 10, according to data that put the country on track to become among the worst-hit in Europe." https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN22310D">https://mobile.reuters.com/article/a...
UK's true COVID-19 death toll far higher than daily figure, data suggests

The true extent of Britain's COVID-19 death toll was more than 40% higher than the government's daily figures indicated as of April 10, according to data that put the country on track to become among...

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN22310D
AFTER #Covid19 "recovery" you might still bei dependent on OXYGEN ! https://twitter.com/frau_minze/status/1252504078162288640">https://twitter.com/frau_minz...
Prof Meyer-Herrmann of @Helmholtz_HZI
= above video edit contains essential 2:07 minutes, with main messages (scroll up 10 tweets).

Thread with many MORE snippets from the same #AnneWill programme 19.4.2020:
https://twitter.com/AscotBlack/status/1252066622346604545

Thx">https://twitter.com/AscotBlac... to @AscotBlack!
Danke @Karl_Lauterbach: Nieren!
"Possibly Fatal Coronavirus Crisis: Kidney Dialysis. Ventilators aren’t the only machines in intensive care units that are in short supply. Doctors have been confronting an unexpected rise in patients with failing kidneys." https://twitter.com/Karl_Lauterbach/status/1252602387296124931">https://twitter.com/Karl_Laut...
Lung problems still, 6 weeks after counted as "recovered" from #Covid19 and it was a MILD course, not even fever; under 40 years old, not in & #39;vulnerable& #39; group. https://twitter.com/BabySolanas/status/1252555447820849152">https://twitter.com/BabySolan...
A climate scientist about Corona containment strategies. 10 tweets thread by Stefan @Rahmstorf: https://twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/1252637244424421382">https://twitter.com/rahmstorf...
"... über ACE2-Rezeptoren zu einer generalisierten Entzündung im #Endothel führt: SARS-CoV-2 ...eine systemische #Endotheliitis, die alle Gefäßbetten erfasse: Herz-, Hirn-, Lungen- und Nierengefäße sowie Gefäße im Darmtrakt ... Mikrozirkulationsstörungen" https://twitter.com/aerztezeitung/status/1252571921025245187">https://twitter.com/aerztezei...
Vietnam: 5 days of ZERO new cases!
Interesting thread: https://twitter.com/CommieTheology/status/1252613214363250689">https://twitter.com/CommieThe...
WATCH THIS ! Video 05:20 min
HOW to do "the Dance", some aspects.
https://twitter.com/AC360/status/1252755613769228288
-->">https://twitter.com/AC360/sta... @TomasPueyo !!
at @andersoncooper @AC360
Remember ...it& #39;s not about you ...it& #39;s not about you ...it& #39;s not about you ... It& #39;s about everybody else.

If you are irresponsible enough to think that you don& #39;t mind if you get the flu, remember: It& #39;s not about you. It& #39;s about everybody else.

02:21 min https://twitter.com/gregjames/status/1241838854891622401">https://twitter.com/gregjames...
"Hokkaido ...emergency ...lifted on March 19 ...begun to reopen schools & ...allowing ...public gatherings.

But the latest order reverses all that, asking residents once again to refrain from nonessential trips outside their homes & closing ... schools https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/13/832981899/emergency-declared-in-japanese-prefecture-hit-by-2nd-wave-of-coronavirus-infecti">https://www.npr.org/sections/...
Emergency Declared In Japanese Prefecture Hit By 2nd Wave Of Coronavirus Infections

Hokkaido, which saw the country's highest incidence of coronavirus as the pandemic first swept through Asia, had been returning to normal until a sudden recent spike in cases.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/13/832981899/emergency-declared-in-japanese-prefecture-hit-by-2nd-wave-of-coronavirus-infecti
"How politicians s**t on students/pupils" by @RezoMusik

Ir/responsible politicians from:
@CDU
@FREIEWAEHLER_BV
@SPDbt
@FDP
@dieLinke

newspaper @DieZEIT: https://www.zeit.de/kultur/2020-04/bildungssystem-abiturpruefung-kultusministerien-armin-laschet-coronavirus
sources">https://www.zeit.de/kultur/20... 9 pages: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1pHmeJ1bzlBuBy-MK2DiZOQCUBKROMSMeQZ78eItlLis/
19:51">https://docs.google.com/document/... mins orig https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiYLQXS-ufs
02:13">https://www.youtube.com/watch... for twitter:
"... the transition to online learning & teaching ..." lol https://twitter.com/MommaUnfiltered/status/1251855748876898306">https://twitter.com/MommaUnfi...
Return of dangerous patterns of thought in this #CoronaCrisis - such as the myth that the victim is indispensable. The old should die so that the #Economy can live.
https://twitter.com/zeitonline/status/1252926354913406977

(also">https://twitter.com/zeitonlin... see chapter & #39;(2.2) Euthanasia& #39; in http://tiny.cc/pTools )">https://tiny.cc/pTools&qu...
"mit Durchhaltevermögen eine #Containment-Strategie in erreichbare Nähe rückt ...Einschränkungen aufrechterhalten, bis Reproduktionszahl von 0,2 erreicht sei, um dann jedem Infektionsfall nachgehen zu können"

Meyer-Hermann @Helmholtz_HZI
#AgentBasedModels
https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/epidemiologe-zu-corona-massnahmen-es-ist-nicht-klar-welche.676.de.html?dram:article_id=475166">https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/epidemiol...
A mysterious blood-clotting complication is killing coronavirus patients.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/coronavirus-blood-clots/
By https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/20... href="https://twitter.com/arianaeunjung">@ArianaEunjung, April 22, 2020, @WashingtonPost
A mysterious blood-clotting complication is killing coronavirus patients

Once thought to be a relatively straightforward respiratory virus, covid-19 is proving to be much more complex and frightening

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/coronavirus-blood-clots/
Comparison of prediction models over time https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1253050397528391680">https://twitter.com/DrEricDin...
Truth rage https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1253180298927525888">https://twitter.com/DrEricDin...
"You get your money, you s**tbags"
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1252997253079449601

Serious">https://twitter.com/DrEricDin... & reasonable suggestion:
Mortgage payments, any credit due ... are just delayed, by the length of the shutdown.

Or as the economy has inertia and needs time to restart ...by 1.5 times the length of the shutdown.
READ THIS - Coronavirus: Learning How to Dance - Part 1: What We Can Learn from Countries Around the World,

by @TomasPueyo (author of "why you must act now" and "the hammer and the dance", see above): https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-learning-how-to-dance-b8420170203e">https://medium.com/@tomaspue...
Coronavirus: Learning How to Dance

Part 1: A Dancing Masterclass, or What We Can Learn from Countries Around the World

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-learning-how-to-dance-b8420170203e
10 tweets current data with focus on GERMANY. https://twitter.com/HerrNaumann/status/1253254050902167553">https://twitter.com/HerrNauma...
& #39;vaccine technology has been used on other diseases, including ... MERS [and] Ebola.
ChAdOx1 ... "Chaddox-one", is a version of a common cold virus that has been modified ... doesn& #39;t cause symptoms .... it carries some genetic material of the coronavirus.& #39; https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-why-oxford-university-is-so-confident-in-an-early-vaccine-win-11977568">https://news.sky.com/story/cor...
Coronavirus: Why Oxford university is so confident in an early vaccine win

Past success of the technology Oxford University is using for the COVID-19 vaccine is why they think it can be ready by September.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-why-oxford-university-is-so-confident-in-an-early-vaccine-win-11977568
"Loss of sense of smell, strokes, epileptic seizures, paralysis, headaches - there are now whole series of observations that show that infection with Sars-CoV-2 can also affect the central nervous system." https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-kann-auch-das-gehirn-befallen-schlaganfaelle-kopfschmerzen-atemlaehmung-a-d365d33c-d330-49a1-a7b6-6b374e30ccb1">https://www.spiegel.de/wissensch...
Schlaganfälle, Kopfschmerzen, Atemlähmung: Das Coronavirus kann auch das Gehirn befallen - DER...

Vor allem bei schweren Verläufen von Covid-19 beobachten Ärzte auch neurologische Probleme. Wie bahnt sich das Virus den Weg ins Gehirn? Und welchen Schaden richtet es dort an? Erste Erklärungsvers...

https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-kann-auch-das-gehirn-befallen-schlaganfaelle-kopfschmerzen-atemlaehmung-a-d365d33c-d330-49a1-a7b6-6b374e30ccb1
#WorkplaceInfection >40% employees on that floor. Korea. "Call center" means: SPEAKING, so exhaling large amounts of virus. Ouch. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1253767231940562945">https://twitter.com/DrEricDin...
... temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, and UV ... https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1253816512755822593">https://twitter.com/hausfath/...
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch
"Bei einem 85-jährigen Mann erhöht COVID-19 die Wahrscheinlichkeit, das nächste Jahr nicht zu erleben, von 8% auf 16%, bei einem 45-Jährigen von 0.13% auf 0.33%, was sogar mehr als einer Verdoppelung entspricht."
https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/20/covid-19-update-von-prof-paul-r-vogt/
1/2">https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/2...
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch"Bei einem 85-jährigen Mann erhöht COVID-19 die Wahrscheinlichkeit, das nächste Jahr nicht zu erleben, von 8% auf 16%, bei einem 45-Jährigen von 0.13% auf 0.33%, was sogar mehr als einer Verdoppelung entspricht." https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/2...
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch"Bei einem 85-jährigen Mann erhöht COVID-19 die Wahrscheinlichkeit, das nächste Jahr nicht zu erleben, von 8% auf 16%, bei einem 45-Jährigen von 0.13% auf 0.33%, was sogar mehr als einer Verdoppelung entspricht." https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/2...
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch"Bei einem 85-jährigen Mann erhöht COVID-19 die Wahrscheinlichkeit, das nächste Jahr nicht zu erleben, von 8% auf 16%, bei einem 45-Jährigen von 0.13% auf 0.33%, was sogar mehr als einer Verdoppelung entspricht." https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/2...
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch"Bei einem 85-jährigen Mann erhöht COVID-19 die Wahrscheinlichkeit, das nächste Jahr nicht zu erleben, von 8% auf 16%, bei einem 45-Jährigen von 0.13% auf 0.33%, was sogar mehr als einer Verdoppelung entspricht." https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/2...
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch
"das übliche Überlegenheitsgefühl des Westens mit seinen «besten Gesundheitswesen der Welt» .... verpasst, dass gewisse Länder in Asien fortschrittlicher sind, und eine Pandemie um Welten effektiver zu managen wissen"
https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/20/covid-19-update-von-prof-paul-r-vogt/
2/2">https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/2...
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch"das übliche Überlegenheitsgefühl des Westens mit seinen «besten Gesundheitswesen der Welt» .... verpasst, dass gewisse Länder in Asien fortschrittlicher sind, und eine Pandemie um Welten effektiver zu managen wissen" https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/2...
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch"das übliche Überlegenheitsgefühl des Westens mit seinen «besten Gesundheitswesen der Welt» .... verpasst, dass gewisse Länder in Asien fortschrittlicher sind, und eine Pandemie um Welten effektiver zu managen wissen" https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/2...
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch"das übliche Überlegenheitsgefühl des Westens mit seinen «besten Gesundheitswesen der Welt» .... verpasst, dass gewisse Länder in Asien fortschrittlicher sind, und eine Pandemie um Welten effektiver zu managen wissen" https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/2...
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch"das übliche Überlegenheitsgefühl des Westens mit seinen «besten Gesundheitswesen der Welt» .... verpasst, dass gewisse Länder in Asien fortschrittlicher sind, und eine Pandemie um Welten effektiver zu managen wissen" https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/2...
"the most important thing for people to understand is that large strokes are very treatable. ... But it has to be done quickly, ideally within 6 hours, but no longer than 24 hours ... if you have symptoms of stroke, you need to call the ambulance urgently" https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/20...
Young and middle-aged people, barely sick with covid-19, are dying of strokes

Doctors sound alarm about patients in their 30s and 40s left debilitated or dead by strokes. Some didn’t even know they were infected by coronavirus.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/
"... REFUSE to relate closely with anyone NOT WEARING A MASK ..."

(i.e. ruthless, dumb, egoistic people)
#RefuseBarbarism
RISING:
Russia Mexiko Brasil Canada Peru Sweden Turkey Pakistan USA

HIGH:
USA UK Italy Spain France Germany Brasil Canada China Iran Turkey

#DailyDeaths due to #Covid19 (7 days rolling averages, i.e. delayed & smoothed)
RISING:Russia Mexiko Brasil Canada Peru Sweden Turkey Pakistan USAHIGH:USA UK Italy Spain France Germany Brasil Canada China Iran Turkey #DailyDeaths due to #Covid19 (7 days rolling averages, i.e. delayed & smoothed)
RISING:Russia Mexiko Brasil Canada Peru Sweden Turkey Pakistan USAHIGH:USA UK Italy Spain France Germany Brasil Canada China Iran Turkey #DailyDeaths due to #Covid19 (7 days rolling averages, i.e. delayed & smoothed)
RISING:Russia Mexiko Brasil Canada Peru Sweden Turkey Pakistan USAHIGH:USA UK Italy Spain France Germany Brasil Canada China Iran Turkey #DailyDeaths due to #Covid19 (7 days rolling averages, i.e. delayed & smoothed)
"klüger ...Kontaktbeschränkungen ...um weitere Wochen auszudehnen ...hätte Vorteile gehabt ...Mit weniger Neuinfektionen.. Möglichkeit bestanden die Ansteckungen nachzuvollziehen...

Medizinisch aber auch ökonomisch wäre dies die bessere Strategie gewesen" https://taz.de/Karl-Lauterbach-ueber-Covid-19/!5678392/">https://taz.de/Karl-Laut...
Karl Lauterbach über Covid-19: „Die Pandemie ist schrecklich“

Kaum jemand mahnt gerade zu mehr Vorsicht als der SPD-Gesundheitsexperte. Ein Gespräch über Vertrauen und Kneipenbesuche im Jahr 2021

https://taz.de/Karl-Lauterbach-ueber-Covid-19/!5678392/
Sometimes no ventilator is better!

"...he struggled to breathe even with an oxygen mask & felt so sick the ventilator seemed inevitable.
Even so his doctors never put him on a machine that would breathe for him. A week later he was well enough to go home" https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ventilators-specia/special-report-as-virus-advances-doctors-rethink-rush-to-ventilate-idUSKCN2251PE">https://www.reuters.com/article/u...
Special Report: As virus advances, doctors rethink rush to ventilate

When he was diagnosed with COVID-19, Andre Bergmann knew exactly where he wanted to be treated: the Bethanien hospital lung clinic in Moers, near his home in northwestern Germany.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ventilators-specia/special-report-as-virus-advances-doctors-rethink-rush-to-ventilate-idUSKCN2251PE
Covid19 lungs versus healthy lungs https://twitter.com/19Insomnia82/status/1251098574223560704">https://twitter.com/19Insomni...
Masks. Of course. Asians gave the example - but Westerners are too barbarically egoistic, to even understand WHY.
Finally ... masks obligatory. 2 fricking months later. What an insanely catastrophic decision system we live in. Dominated by the 51% dumbest. https://twitter.com/Karl_Lauterbach/status/1254469844726145024">https://twitter.com/Karl_Laut...
& #39;Now, what I call the “prevention paradox” has set in. People are claiming we over-reacted, there is political and economic pressure to return to normal.& #39; https://theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/virologist-christian-drosten-germany-coronavirus-expert-interview">https://theguardian.com/world/202...
Germany's Covid-19 expert: 'For many, I'm the evil guy crippling the economy'

Germany’s leading coronavirus expert Christian Drosten on Merkel’s leadership, the UK response and the ‘prevention paradox’Coronavirus – latest updatesSee all our coronavirus coverage

https://theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/virologist-christian-drosten-germany-coronavirus-expert-interview
Great @JacindaArdern! First #climate leadership, now #Covid19!

#NewZealand LEVEL 4 to 3, after "reported new Covid-19 cases was in single digits for 7th day".

Danger: watching this, you might HATE 51% dumb people in your country & the morons they elect. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12327690">https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...
Covid 19 coronavirus: Last day of lockdown - Jacinda Ardern's message to New Zealand

PM Jacinda Ardern said 'lives and livelihoods' depend on the country's response.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&amp;objectid=12327690
New Zealand
* currently eliminated coronavirus
* reported <1,500 confirmed/probable cases & 19 deaths
* 4.9 million population, so
* prevalence ~ 300 cases per million
* mortality ~ 4 dead per million
New Zealand now moved from Level 4 lockdown to Level 3. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52436658">https://www.bbc.com/news/worl...
Coronavirus 'currently eliminated' in New Zealand

The country has stopped community transmission of Covid-19, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52436658
7 images of dead or suffering children, or the parents they lost ... in an angry rant thread, accusing the selfish "whiners" and #CoronaDeniers ... of being sociopathic. https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/1254548594079805442">https://twitter.com/kurteiche...
"... thank God for the motherf**king nerds right now..." https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🙏" title="Folded hands" aria-label="Emoji: Folded hands">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤓" title="Nerd face" aria-label="Emoji: Nerd face">s https://twitter.com/jonlajoiecomedy/status/1240325657789206529">https://twitter.com/jonlajoie...
First graders with social distancing headgear https://twitter.com/chowleen/status/1254590781446410240">https://twitter.com/chowleen/...
How is YOUR REGION doing? Germany by districts "LandKreise" (and "Bundesland"). #Covid19.

Site built from scratch, completely new. Please give FEEDBACK, and spread the word = RETWEET, thanks.

With huge local & regional differences, this is useful: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1255620786511130624">https://twitter.com/drandreas... RT.
"A non-trivial outcome of our study is that strong suppression strategies lead to lower total costs than taking no action, when containment efforts are not relaxed with falling infection rates." (page 6)
https://clausen.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Corona_all.pdf">https://clausen.berkeley.edu/wp-conten...
"Beyond herd immunity point, infected-case counts remain elevated for considerable time. The outbreak stops completely only once 94% of population has been infected ... Fig. 1a. The view that epidemic is essentially over once the herd immunity point is reached is erroneous" (p.6)
"Beyond herd immunity point, infected-case counts remain elevated for considerable time. The outbreak stops completely only once 94% of population has been infected ... Fig. 1a. The view that epidemic is essentially over once the herd immunity point is reached is erroneous" (p.6)
"Beyond herd immunity point, infected-case counts remain elevated for considerable time. The outbreak stops completely only once 94% of population has been infected ... Fig. 1a. The view that epidemic is essentially over once the herd immunity point is reached is erroneous" (p.6)
ZEIT "war durch ...Politiker und ...Medien der Eindruck entstanden, die Wissenschaft sei sich bei ihren Einschätzungen der Lage nicht einig. Die gemeinsame Veröffentlichung der Forscherinnen & Forscher widerspricht dieser Wahrnehmung."

FG + HG + LG +MPG ! https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2020-04/coronavirus-strategie-eindaemmung-neuinfektionen-wissenschaftliche-stellungnahme">https://www.zeit.de/wissen/ge...
ZEIT "war durch ...Politiker und ...Medien der Eindruck entstanden, die Wissenschaft sei sich bei ihren Einschätzungen der Lage nicht einig. Die gemeinsame Veröffentlichung der Forscherinnen & Forscher widerspricht dieser Wahrnehmung."FG + HG + LG +MPG ! https://www.zeit.de/wissen/ge...
ZEIT "war durch ...Politiker und ...Medien der Eindruck entstanden, die Wissenschaft sei sich bei ihren Einschätzungen der Lage nicht einig. Die gemeinsame Veröffentlichung der Forscherinnen & Forscher widerspricht dieser Wahrnehmung."FG + HG + LG +MPG ! https://www.zeit.de/wissen/ge...
"Eine konsequente Eindämmung von SARS-CoV-2 ist aus epidemiologischer Sicht derzeit die einzig sinnvolle Strategie"

Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft
Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
Leibniz-Gemeinschaft
MaxPlanck-Gesellschaft

Strategien zur Eindämmung der COVID-19-Pandemie
https://mpg.de/14759871/corona-stellungnahme">https://mpg.de/14759871/...
"Eine konsequente Eindämmung von SARS-CoV-2 ist aus epidemiologischer Sicht derzeit die einzig sinnvolle Strategie"Fraunhofer-GesellschaftHelmholtz-GemeinschaftLeibniz-GemeinschaftMaxPlanck-GesellschaftStrategien zur Eindämmung der COVID-19-Pandemie https://mpg.de/14759871/...
"Eine konsequente Eindämmung von SARS-CoV-2 ist aus epidemiologischer Sicht derzeit die einzig sinnvolle Strategie"Fraunhofer-GesellschaftHelmholtz-GemeinschaftLeibniz-GemeinschaftMaxPlanck-GesellschaftStrategien zur Eindämmung der COVID-19-Pandemie https://mpg.de/14759871/...
doctors protest in Germany https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1255442955386499072">https://twitter.com/dwnews/st...
dentists protest in France https://mobile.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/dentisteapoil-les-dentistes-se-deshabillent-pour-interpeller-sur-le-manque-de-moyens-de-protection-dont-ils-disposent_3937073.html">https://mobile.francetvinfo.fr/sante/mal...
Coronavirus : des dentistes posent nus sur les réseaux sociaux pour interpeller sur le manque de...

Déjà 75 photos "au naturel" circulent sur les réseaux sociaux, et une vidéo #dentisteapoil sera mise en ligne lundi soir sur Youtube. "On ne sera pas prêts le 11 mai", alertent les spécialistes de...

https://mobile.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/dentisteapoil-les-dentistes-se-deshabillent-pour-interpeller-sur-le-manque-de-moyens-de-protection-dont-ils-disposent_3937073.html
Never ever trust a #CoronaDenier ever again! They will always be dangerous. Again, they seem to be the same mentally challenged individuals and corrupt organisations - once evil, always evil?

"links between climate science denial and Covid-19 downplaying" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/25/climate-science-deniers-downplaying-coronavirus-pandemic">https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...
Climate science deniers at forefront of downplaying coronavirus pandemic

Vocal influencers such as the conspiracy theorist Alex Jones and the Heartland Institute are hitting back at a time when people’s trust in science is rising

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/25/climate-science-deniers-downplaying-coronavirus-pandemic
1 million #recovered = 31% of
3.3 million #confirmed cases

1.3 million cases "with an #outcome", of which
230k deaths = 18% #lethality

#deaths: USA=64k IT=28k UK=27k ES=25k FR=24k DE=6.6k IR=6.0k BR=5.9k TR=3.2k CN=4.6k

2 million cases still " #active"

April30th #Covid19data
>230,000 deaths by #Covid19
227,898 deaths by #Tsunami2004
#Covid19: Local & regional differences begin to matter. More comfort navigating the data - both projects are linked together now: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1256039231492939782">https://twitter.com/drandreas... - please share #cov19de. Thanks.
#CoronaParties anyone? https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1255986033923145731">https://twitter.com/nowthisne...
New functionalities in #cov19de = #covid19 data website: Sorting by different measures, 14 days incidence. https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1256374051032924161">https://twitter.com/drandreas... Please retweet http://tiny.cc/cov19de ">https://tiny.cc/cov19de&q... - thanks.
"Hello I& #39;m from the government, with an update on the #pandemic. ...in order to flatten the curve, we& #39;ve had to turn off the machine. The machine has not been turned off for a long long time ...

... we should have a little chat about what just happened" https://twitter.com/thejuicemedia/status/1256028302650703872">https://twitter.com/thejuicem...
Projekt #cov19de hat neue Funktionen: Sortieren & 14 Tage Inzidenz - http://tiny.cc/cov19de ">https://tiny.cc/cov19de&q... - Deutschland& #39;s Kreise.
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1256375741614305282">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
Not all is bad about Corona. For 30 years this view https://twitter.com/timesofindia/status/1255755012010987520?s=19
had">https://twitter.com/timesofin... been destroyed - by capitalism consumerism dirt. Now that "the machine" powered down for a few weeks ... the better air quality allows to see the Himalayas again. Wow, what had we allowed to happen?
Ooops UK https://twitter.com/kevpluck/status/1256567374293217283">https://twitter.com/kevpluck/...
#cov19de crowdsourced data Germany http://tiny.cc/cov19de ">https://tiny.cc/cov19de&q... https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1257254873508298752">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
how they beat #Covid19
* early, common-sense action
* isolate away from home
* strong lockdown
* strict travel restrictions
* massive testing
* face masks for everyone https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1256769252369072134">https://twitter.com/yaneerbar...
Interesting plot: DailyDeaths
versus TotalDeaths until then

lol-log-plot, both per capita, for >> 10 countries & world https://twitter.com/epsilon3141/status/1256525633808629765">https://twitter.com/epsilon31...
Shape of the weekday bias, averaged over all weeks: https://twitter.com/Einzigartiger/status/1257376474216226823">https://twitter.com/Einzigart... Data: @RKI_de = german health agency #Covid19
Paris France: "scientists retested samples from 24 patients treated in Dec & January who tested negative for flu.
... we had one who was positive for Covid-19 on 27 December" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/french-hospital-discovers-covid-19-case-december-retested">https://www.theguardian.com/world/202... (perhaps false positives cross reaction with other coronaviruses?? perhaps not).
French hospital discovers Covid-19 case from December

Man found to have had virus a month before government confirmed first cases

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/french-hospital-discovers-covid-19-case-december-retested
Heinsberg study preprint: https://twitter.com/hendrikstreeck/status/1257228751617830913

Careful:">https://twitter.com/hendrikst... IFR=0.36% was extrapolated from only 7 deaths (so they should rather say ~0.4%).

Plus it is a horribly high number:
94% * 7.8 billion * 0.4% #lethality = 29 million deaths

(for the 94% scroll up 20 tweets to April 30)
11 years per #covid19death ...

... is the answer to an -unethical?- question.

"years of life lost (ylls) for the average Briton/Italian who passed away was ~ 11, meaning that FEW of #covid19’s victims would have died soon otherwise"

Before their time:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/02/would-most-covid-19-victims-have-died-soon-without-the-virus">https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...
11 years per #covid19death ... ... is the answer to an -unethical?- question."years of life lost (ylls) for the average Briton/Italian who passed away was ~ 11, meaning that FEW of #covid19’s victims would have died soon otherwise"Before their time: https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...
11 years per #covid19death ... ... is the answer to an -unethical?- question."years of life lost (ylls) for the average Briton/Italian who passed away was ~ 11, meaning that FEW of #covid19’s victims would have died soon otherwise"Before their time: https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...
Hammer and Dance countries https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1257194240112648192">https://twitter.com/tomaspuey...
German #OpenData resources - useful list, work in progress https://twitter.com/denkubatorin/status/1250324242232557573">https://twitter.com/denkubato...
my #cov19de project is being used - some feedback: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1257417599534669824">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
Covid19 Dashboard = collection of (mostly auto-updated) data resources, by @OliverRack, work in progress: https://www.oliverrack.eu/ogpbw/coviddash ">https://www.oliverrack.eu/ogpbw/cov... very long page, interesting ...
"I am a time-traveler from 2025. I lived through the events of 2020 which ruptured the fabric of society as we knew it then. As humans, we adapted, and survived. Here is what my world looks like now. This is my #NewNormal."

Visionary. READ THIS thread: https://twitter.com/varun_mathur/status/1256726823393689600">https://twitter.com/varun_mat...
"If you get infected, you have the same risk of dying as two months ago."

"The lockdown was incredibly effective." https://twitter.com/AguzziTemp/status/1256471145374797824">https://twitter.com/AguzziTem...
IFR = infection fatality rates = death of ppl truly infected
CFR = case fatality rates, death of ppl KNOWN to be infected
https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1256912958761754624">https://twitter.com/tomaspuey...
"Every day we wait to get them done, billions are wasted, millions lose their livelihoods, and the downturn will be harder."

"Governments ... are taking too long" https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1256869356786421761">https://twitter.com/tomaspuey...
Excellent German article on R_eff = how #ReproductionNumber is calculated from empirical case number data, at @RKI_de :
https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Corona-Pandemie-Die-Mathematik-hinter-den-Reproduktionszahlen-R-4712676.html

I">https://www.heise.de/newsticke... have used a variation of that same method in my http://tiny.cc/cov19de ">https://tiny.cc/cov19de&q... project.
Corona-Pandemie: Die Mathematik hinter den Reproduktionszahlen R

In den vergangenen Tagen ist bei den Debatten über das Coronavirus die Reproduktionszahl in den Fokus gerückt. Zeit, ein bisschen was zu erklären.

https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Corona-Pandemie-Die-Mathematik-hinter-den-Reproduktionszahlen-R-4712676.html
For the effective #ReproductionNumber R_eff ... I have used a variation of that ^ method, in my http://tiny.cc/cov19de ">https://tiny.cc/cov19de&q... project - see the Python code here https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1256776383642165253">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
China vs the White House Monster
By #Xinhua: https://youtu.be/Q5BZ09iNdvo ">https://youtu.be/Q5BZ09iNd...
Interesting interview! #SpanishFlu researcher:

"...hat in Doktorarbeit zur #SpanischenGrippe geforscht ... die 2.Welle ... war viel stärker & tödlicher. Im Okt & Nov 1918 verstarben weltweit die meisten Menschen ... 27 bis 50 Millionen Menschenleben ..."
https://immanuel.de/aktuelles/nachrichten/aktuelle-nachrichten/detail/article/lehren-aus-der-spanischen-grippe-fuer-die-corona-pandemie-droht-eine-zweite-infektionswelle/">https://immanuel.de/aktuelles...
#PooledTests with clever combinatorics. Configurations for 1%, 2.5%, 5% and 10% prevalence suggested, see image.

"Tapestry" they called it, and made an app with instructions! https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.20077727v2.full.pdf+html">https://www.medrxiv.org/content/1... Tapestry: A Single-Round Smart Pooling Technique for COVID-19 Testing
My article in #TelePolis about #Cov19de. The new site http://tiny.cc/cov19de ">https://tiny.cc/cov19de&q... focuses on the 401 districts in Germany, and their time series of infection data. Use deepL .com for translation. https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1259000828272271360">https://twitter.com/drandreas...
Note by 4 tweets in 1 week ^ this thread is patchy & very incomplete now. I even increased my efforts, but my time went into e.g. the article.

Project http://tiny.cc/cov19de ">https://tiny.cc/cov19de&q... is worth it!

See e.g. the German tweets about it
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1259765157988835328
(which">https://twitter.com/drandreas... link to English tweets)
You can follow @drandreaskruger.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

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