.
Covid19 Corona SarsCov2 Sars2 THREAD #2
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thread 1 from Jan28 to Apr06
thread 2 from Apr07
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#Covid19 #Corona #SarsCov2 #Sars2
THREAD #1 Jan28-Apr06 - First tweet Jan 28
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1222151233076715521
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THREAD#1 since Jan28 - 17th tweet on Feb 19: 73325 infected https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1230048883717345280
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THREAD#1 (since Jan28) 34th tweet on March 6: outside China 8500 infected https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1235915734976471041
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THREAD#1 (since Jan28) 57th tweet March 11: Italy !!! https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1237752560410333184 .
THREAD#1 (since Jan28) 65th tweet March 12th: 127,863 infected. Average doubling took 9.3 days: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1238230727709294592
China: containment SUCCESSFUL !
THREAD#1 (since Jan 28) tweet 78: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1239005558088388608 .
dead: 1 jumbo jet crash / day, doubling every 3.5 days. March 15 tweet #87 of THREAD#1 (since Jan28) https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1239126957524242433 .
THREAD#1 is 50 days old, 106th tweet: 167907 infected https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1239371740893102081 .
THREAD#1 tweet #117: "tenfold every ten days = doubling every 3 days" https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1239764804400709633 .
Singapore had the HIGHEST number cases outside China initially! THREAD#1 tweet#127 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1239821815238799361 .
Germany exponential explosion 27% per day. 14k cases. March 20th. #THREAD#1 tweet#170
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1241028315340779520 .
13% CFR (Lethality) worldwide = 14,455 dead / 111,413 closed cases, with an outcome. Tweet#189 in THREAD#1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1241880179456258051 .
Tests per 1 million population
UAE 13000, SouthKorea 6000, Australia 4500, Italy 3500, Germany 2000, Austria 1800, UK 1000, Iran 1000, France 600, Finland 500, USA 300, Vietnam 160, Japan 120, SouthAfrica 110, Colombia 80, Brazil 14.
Tweet#207 of thread#1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1242571215312650240
67 --> 11 --> 4 --> 2 days, for each 100k infected. Tweet#231 of thread#1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1243316600943579142 .
> 50 doctors died ! Tweet#245 of thread#1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1244162571780964354 .
SouthKorea SUCCESS: down to < 100 new cases / day!! (population 51 million) Tweet#258 of thread#1, March 30: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1244686550644011008 .
6800 free ICU beds with ventilators, 951 in use for #Covid19 cases. Germany March 30. Tweet#270 of Thread#1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1244939908281761792 .
855,007 cases on April 1st. Two tenfolds and one doubling, since thread#1 beginning. Tweet#279: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1245131955542384640 .
Germany April 1st:
(RL) 71784 inf, 775 dead, 10683 recovered.
(RKI) 61913 inf; +4615 new=+8.1%; 583 dead.
(JHU) inf 71808, dead 775, recovrd 16100.
(WOM) 2675 serious=4.9%. 775 dead=4.6% tCFR.
THREE Tweets #280-283 of thread#1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1245185382624436226 .
Example born 1970-1980:

Lucky:
84.2% mild (~roll a dice, get NO six)
0.6% no symptom at all (1 of 167 people)

Likely lasting damage:
14.4% severe (~flip 3 coins, all heads up)
0.8% critical (friend of friend, if all had 11 friends)

Tweet#305 of Thread#1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246012627479941121
Infection channel percentages approx 47 pre + 6 asympt + 38 sympt + 10 envir = portions of R0=2.0.
Tweet#310 of thread#1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246256339627716672 .
Countries AND regions comparison, loglin plots. Yes, different amounts of testing causes very different ABSOLUTE numbers; but not different GRADIENT = steepness. (Yes, INCREASE of testing temporarily causes SOME extra gradient). Tweet#318 of thread#1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246639180077244421 .
#TestingCapacity increase calculator NEW sheet. Avg increase FI>AT>FR>DE>IT>UAE in 18-23 days until today.

Please extend more countries: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pr76pkb3LBTpgmcMtYRTvG_g7C5CjDoAsG1WjFHiPig/ (File ... Make a copy ...).

💙Thanks a LOT to @_Lady_Charlotte for updated numbers: https://twitter.com/_Lady_Charlotte/status/1247554488522637312 !
Germany on 401 districts level: #Prevalence & #Mortality, plus whole country simple statistics; auto-updated. Tweet#319 of Thread#1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246639968702861312 new pics: screenshots 14/April/2020 - now also googlesheet shortcut at http://tiny.cc/kreise  URL abbreviator
Germany on 401 districts level: #Prevalence & #Mortality, plus whole country simple statistics; auto-updated. Tweet#319 of Thread#1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246639968702861312 new pics: screenshots 14/April/2020 - now also googlesheet shortcut at http://tiny.cc/kreise  URL abbreviator
Germany on 401 districts level: #Prevalence & #Mortality, plus whole country simple statistics; auto-updated. Tweet#319 of Thread#1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246639968702861312 new pics: screenshots 14/April/2020 - now also googlesheet shortcut at http://tiny.cc/kreise  URL abbreviator
Germany crossed 100k known infected on April 5th - Tweet#320 of Thread#1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246883964910010368
Above summarizes 330 tweets with focus on numbers (infected dead tested...). Thread#1 contains other viewpoints too. Use above as jump targets.

NOW BACK to the VERY BEGINNING:
IF countries make mistakes then the 1st days are worst, due to avalanches of later-cascaded infections.
4474 cases on January 28th = my first screenshot of JohnsHopkins dashboard = tweet#2 of thread#1 = obviously the #NewCoronaVirus was conceived to be a serious problem already. https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1222178443586080768

"Disaster movies start with scientists being ignored"
Initially the #ExponentialGrowth was 50-54% PER DAY (perhaps also because of the catching up of "known infected" with the "yet uncounted infected"). Tweet#3 in Thread#1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1222180706467680256 . Jan28th.
Some #ExponentialFitFunctions, early phase:
+48%/day infected, China
+35%/day infected elsewhere (but: see previous tweet)
+26%/day recovered
+39%/day deaths
needs: LogLin plot !
prediction: SIR model = not unlimited growth !
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1222510924474601477 = Tweet#6 Thread#1. Jan29th.
Intro: #DoublingDays easier concept than %growth
2.21 DDs = infected China
2.90 DDs = infected elsewhere
2.51 DDs = recovered China
2.60 DDs = deaths China
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1223566413274714113 tweet#7 thread#1, Feb1st: more data = better fit; known cases catching up. Still #ExponentialGrowth!
Example 5 phases #epidemics: Curve BEGINS as #ExponentialGrowth then turned to #LinearGrowth by intervention. Then enough people understand: Once R0<1 epidemics can die out. Until re-imported...

RealWorldData neighbor-neighbor province #Jiangsu #江苏省 (capital #Nanjing #南京市)
N.B.: The "history approach" of thread#1 was interrupted for >ONE week, in order to write a long text about all this. I have possibly missed really important news between April 6th and April 15th.

Sorry for incomplete and delayed ... news. Only some highlights, following.
A trustworthy CoronaApp MUST be OpenSource! https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1247682098829430785
Herd immunity (without vaccine) = wrong. https://twitter.com/tagesthemen/status/1247632362076135424
Hey you moronic #CoronaDeniers out there: "just like the flu", right? https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1247884285333266434
Surviving Corona but "crippled for life" can be an outcome. "Don't listen to the maniacs" says survivor @FrauDoktorJulie who describes herself as an "old, frail woman" now, after #Covid19: https://twitter.com/FrauDoktorJulie/status/1247923014630551555
Northermost German #SchleswigHolstein played with fire, discussing EasterParties of 10 people. Nothing might come from it OR additional deaths 20-30 days later. https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1248343731717144576

Some #EasterDeaths will have been caused likely by simple-minded, mask-less, EasterShoppers...
New & interesting study with N=1010 in a small village "Gangelt" (population 11,634) which was the second Hotspot in Germany - not ski but carneval maniacs ;-)

Much criticism of @hbergprotokoll has been published in past days, one is this early article https://twitter.com/Karl_Lauterbach/status/1248602029783580674
IF their 0.37% mortality was correct (so 1 in 270 population dies) and ALL countries had an equally good health system as Germany, and R0=3, then this " #LowMortality" (which maniac called that low??)...

would cause 19 million deaths minimum IF not stopped https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1248421408230670336
LateApril / earlyMay #EasterDeaths are not unlikely- due to densely packed supermarkets, with EasterShopping fanatics. AND: Who had been trained by public egoists (politicians experts influencers) to repeat the silly "masks don't protect ME" barbarism.
:-( https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1248427572309815302
Some (minor) misuse of German CoronaHelp money. Scammers' phishing site fooled 4000 companies; supermarket billionaire(!) asking for >10^8 Euros support; and CAR companies are TAKING public money but PAYING "profit dividends" to shareholders! #DarkSide 😱 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1248544815656157184
infected = 0.3% in Austrian random, representative PCR testing with N=1544 people, they found 5 infected (one in 309). "prevalence study". April 1-6 https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/oesterreich-corona-101.html
Coronavirus in Österreich: Wie hoch ist die Dunkelziffer?

In Österreich sind deutlich mehr Menschen mit dem Coronavirus infiziert als die offizielle Statistik ausweist. Laut einer Dunkelziffer-Studie sind es knapp dreimal so viele Menschen. Von Clemens...

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/oesterreich-corona-101.html
"SARS-CoV-2 infects T lymphocytes through its spike protein-mediated membrane fusion" @nature 07 April 2020

"COVID-19 patients had very low T-cells" https://twitter.com/CurlyJungleJake/status/1248161735455830016
Some countries are more progressed than others, in handling their first wave https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1248913565227966466
Gangelt study in some cases found surprisingly short incubation periods. My hypothesis: Weakened immune system, due to intoxication with 🍺🍻🍷🥂🍸🍹 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1249517100458225665
Hello @TiloJung - any updates about this? Is the situation still the same? Are any of the people in this video ill now? How many family members have they infected? Is that place controlled by police at all? Or must citizens organize private militia, lol ? https://twitter.com/TiloJung/status/1247568918685929475
Might be OUTDATED, it's 1 month old. But still... great: https://twitter.com/radio_ORANGE/status/1239137714303311872
... by order of the DALEKS ... 🤣 https://twitter.com/Sandford_Police/status/1246125769539162113
oops ... even DEATH COUNTS can be under-estimated https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1247458186300456960
#JackDorsey is moving $1,000,000,000 worth of equity to fund global #Covid19 relief

Bravo @jack 🙏👏

Twitter cofounder & CEO https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Dorsey https://twitter.com/jack/status/1247616214769086465
PLEASE you 'democratic' majority, sit down NOW & THINK HARD for at least 1 HOUR, how it happened that you & your loved ones voted for DESPICABLE MORONS, for ALL your lives.

Please. We need YOU to wake up!

YOU are responsible for many DEAD UK PEOPLE. You! https://twitter.com/Linuzifer/status/1247271419957915653
R0 = 3.8 to 8.9 ?!

"Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9)."
"Disclaimer: Early release articles are not considered as final versions." https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1247872359312351232
Get "paid sick leave" doctor's certificate ON THE PHONE. Do NOT walk into the doctor's office for that! https://twitter.com/BMG_Bund/status/1242744635044384770
#Canada: "$2000 / person month" is the right amount?

--> Chapter "(2.8) #PandemicBasicIncome"

in http://tiny.cc/ptools  = https://medium.com/@andreaskruger/pandemic-tools-for-minds-ptfm-v12-8054724344a8

FOUR months to get infection numbers to ZERO? China needed 38 days only ... Anyways, very interesting: https://twitter.com/BradReason/status/1244813791029755906
German voices AGAINST #HerdImmunityWithoutVaccine " #DurchSeuchung"
Interesting thread: https://twitter.com/AscotBlack/status/1250068116706660355

( also see chapters (1.2.3) (2.2) and (3) in http://tiny.cc/ptools  = https://medium.com/@andreaskruger/pandemic-tools-for-minds-ptfm-v12-8054724344a8 )
Selected a few of my tweets on that. Scroll UP from this, 9 tweets same topic: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1250758018985127938
Swiss Doctor MUST READ

"XiJinping was still nice when he said that Europe had quickly become the global center of the pandemic because of its ' #narcissism'...
...add: because of its arrogance, ignorance and unspeakable know-it-all."

Prof #PaulRobertVogt: https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/07/covid-19-eine-zwischenbilanz-oder-eine-analyse-der-moral-der-medizinischen-fakten-sowie-der-aktuellen-und-zuk%C3%BCnftigen-politischen-entscheidungen/
COVID-19 - eine Zwischenbilanz oder eine Analyse der Moral, der medizinischen Fakten, sowie der...

DMZ – FORSCHUNG / MEDIZIN / POLITIK ¦ GASTKOMMENTAR von Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt Überlegungen eines besorgten Schweizer Bürgers Vorwort: wieso nehme ich überhaupt Stellung? Aus 5...

https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/07/covid-19-eine-zwischenbilanz-oder-eine-analyse-der-moral-der-medizinischen-fakten-sowie-der-aktuellen-und-zuk%C3%BCnftigen-politischen-entscheidungen/
Some Europeans are more humane than others: https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1248658937903230977
PLEASE you 'democracy majorities', sit down & THINK HARD for one 3 hours: How could it happen that you & your loved ones have elected MONSTERS for ALL your lives?

Please. We need YOU to wake up!

YOU are responsible for many DEAD US AMERICANS -you VOTERS. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1248708154084536322
64:36 ~ male vs female #Covid19deaths
(even though infections are approx 50:50) https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1248688175649828871
approx 15% severe+critical; 85% mild+none
https://twitter.com/HarryIWood/status/1248720123097219073
"not rolling a six on multiple dice rolls" = I made a simple(!) maths tutorial what those probabilities mean (IF you are NOT a total egoist, i.e.) when combined:
http://tiny.cc/stoch  = https://medium.com/@andreaskruger/stochastics-and-quarantine-buddies-2ced2c20da78
Attention #maths: AVERAGES can be an illusion !

Example: in "scaleFree degreeDistribution networks" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_network#Scale-free_networks many observables are NOT Gauss distributed - so there IS NO "center" around which the data clusters.

Look at a real world example: https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1248661596177485824
micro-droplets, aerosols - #MaskHaters are dangerous - and the LOUDER they speak, the more risky they are https://twitter.com/ilkeryoldas/status/1248795900882944000
Most probable cause of death in US now:
Not heart attack, not cancer - but #Covid19 https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1247923473273565184
In #Wuhan it was found that mortality & lethality rate for staff & patients fell only after the WORK SHIFT was SHORTENED to 6 hours.

No one can concentrate for 12 hours.

Arrogant Europeans: #LearnFromChina! https://twitter.com/Gode_fridus/status/1248859663753457664
Some #covid19patients have very low #Tcells: Means your immune system itself gets attacked; harder to clear the virus out of your system; and more easily infected by other things. https://twitter.com/CurlyJungleJake/status/1248161735455830016
leading to #ImmunoSuppression ... https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1248890389760802816
"What happened is inexplicably incredible ...the greatest gift ever unwrapped. Not the deaths, not the virus, but #TheGreatPause. It is ...profound"

Prepare for #TheUltimateGaslighting
(manipulation into doubting your sanity)
You are not crazy, my friends https://forge.medium.com/prepare-for-the-ultimate-gaslighting-6a8ce3f0a0e0
Prepare for the Ultimate Gaslighting*

You are not crazy, my friends.

https://forge.medium.com/prepare-for-the-ultimate-gaslighting-6a8ce3f0a0e0
1937-2020 RIP John Conway "GameOfLife"

@xkcdComic @xkcd2 perfect: https://twitter.com/xkcdComic/status/1249750675702943745
@fermatslibrary maths is simple https://twitter.com/fermatslibrary/status/1249318866355998720
"zero-player game", cellular automaton https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conway%27s_Game_of_Life
JHC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Horton_Conway

John died of #Covid19 on 11 April 2020
Germany lockdown FLAWED: R0~1.0 approx!!
HARDEN the SHUT DOWN. NOT soften!

See http://tiny.cc/ptools  --> (1.2.5) --> Hypothesis

How to get to more accurate numbers:
https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Neue-RKI-Corona-Fall-Studie-Einfluss-der-Kontaktsperre-eher-maessig-4702096.html
Orig Bulletin: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/Ausgaben/17_20_SARS-CoV2_vorab.pdf by
#MatthiasAnDerHeiden #OsamahHamouda @RKI_de
ANY softening wrong: "... ist JEDE Lockerung FALSCH"

Prof. Michael E Meyer-Hermann @Helmholtz_HZI
@zdf @HeuteJournal #CoronaKrise Min 01:15 = https://twitter.com/heutejournal/status/1250533807112978434

Please read chapter "(2.3) Economy First" in http://tiny.cc/ptools  & for how to solve it instead: "(2.8) PBI"
Corona & Psyche: Fear stress & loneliness | philosophy's finest hour | 14 Apr 2020 | #srfKultur #srfSternstunde

@YvesBossart1 speaks with psychology professor #AndreasMaercker and psychiatrist #SteffiWeidt.

German + Subtitles: https://twitter.com/srfkultur/status/1248990186932822018
Some ARTISTS on Earth are doing remarkable stuff.
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1250867500914487296 <-- thread = see FriSatSunday!!
"Decentralized Privacy-Preserving Proximity Tracing" https://github.com/dp-3t  open source!

This researcher exits the PEPP-PT project: https://twitter.com/marcelsalathe/status/1251045213415575552
DP^3T

Decentralized Privacy-Preserving Proximity Tracing - DP^3T

https://github.com/dp-3t
Estimating infectious disease parameters

mean generation intervall
Singapore 5.20 (95%CI 3.78-6.78) days.
Tianjin 3.95 (95%CI 3.01-4.91) days

pre-symptomatic transmission
Singapore 48% (95%CI 32-67%)
Tianjin 62% (95%CI 50-76%)

Incubation period mean 5.2
https://twitter.com/marcelsalathe/status/1251441184980992001
"Sätze die über Streecks persönliches Konto auf [twitter] verbreitet wurden, sind kein Zufallsprodukt ...wortgleich in Konzept der Kommunikationsagentur Storymachine ... lesen sich wie ... Drehbuch für die Inszenierung der Studie und ihrer erhofften Ziele" https://www.capital.de/wirtschaft-politik/corona-studie-der-plan-hinter-dem-heinsberg-protokoll
Corona-Studie: der Plan hinter dem „Heinsberg-Protokoll“ - Capital.de

Die Corona-Studie aus Heinsberg gilt als wegweisende Untersuchung im Kampf gegen das Virus. Ein internes PR-Konzept der Agentur Storymachine zeigt, wie

https://www.capital.de/wirtschaft-politik/corona-studie-der-plan-hinter-dem-heinsberg-protokoll
Covid19 tests per population, by countries, 17/April/2020. https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1251216765893455875
36 flights with "medical stuff" from China to Austria https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1251556095371481090
Basic stuff really. Lol.
You MUST assume people are dumb!?

Pic taken from -admittedly mildly informative- SEX PDF by NYC government: https://www1.nyc.gov/home/search/index.page?search-terms=sex+covid19

One of the best educational systems on Earth can be found in USA. Just not for every citizen. What a #BarbaricSociety ...
New intelligent rule (scroll up) for phone solution ... abolished again: must see your doctor in person for "paid sick leave" certificate - EVEN WHEN YOU SUSPECT Covid19! Humans don't matter anymore ... https://twitter.com/DerStevieWer/status/1251487177420218371
But: "Rule applies from now until June 23rd" (health ministry, @jensspahn) https://twitter.com/BMG_Bund/status/1242744635044384770
"Corona: The unbearable incompetence of Jens Spahn" April 18, 2020 Alexander Unzicker https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Corona-Die-unertraegliche-Inkompetenz-des-Jens-Spahn-4705173.html
Corona: Die unerträgliche Inkompetenz des Jens Spahn

Obwohl es praktisch nichts gibt, was er richtig gemacht hat, präsentiert sich der Gesundheitsminister nun als Retter Deutschlands. Ein Kommentar

https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Corona-Die-unertraegliche-Inkompetenz-des-Jens-Spahn-4705173.html
FoxNews is back to killing people, too https://twitter.com/existentialfish/status/1251497219628445696
Obligation to go to school = infects some parents = must sue reckless government for millions of € IF outbreak in school harms ANY vulnerable parents https://twitter.com/ismail_kupeli/status/1251615768166400005

Logical, intelligent solution: allow home schooling, give up obligation for presence?
Or: #SchulBoykott?
UK (VOTERS' !!!) fail:
* inquiry into those "lost" 5 weeks from January 24
* previous outbreaks taught overresponding is better
* failings in February may have cost thousands of lives
* 50 doctors nurses & NHS workers died

@TheSundayTimes April 19th 2020 https://twitter.com/RichardAiken17/status/1251743741481754624
VOTERS please wake up; in democracy, YOU are responsible! Stop voting for morons like you did for decades now ... https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1250407621686890497
Do NOT OBEY ... if anti-humane politics is risking human lives? https://twitter.com/danielglass71/status/1251742479826792459
SimpleMindedNess KILLS.
Dumb people are DANGEROUS. https://twitter.com/StZ_NEWS/status/1251145671060549633
21% dead = 160,835 deaths / 761,304 cases with an outcome. https://twitter.com/HansHuckebein7/status/1251788138541920256
Simulations can help https://tagesspiegel.de/wissen/alarmierende-covid-19-modellrechnungen-zehn-tage-nach-schuloeffnung-schnellen-die-patientenzahlen-hoch/25741744.html
Zehn Tage nach Schulöffnung schnellen die Patientenzahlen hoch

Was passiert, wenn verschiedene Maßnahmen in der Coronakrise getroffen oder aufgehoben werden? Ein Modell der TU Berlin simuliert, wie sich dann Covid-19 in der Bevölkerung ausbreitet.

https://tagesspiegel.de/wissen/alarmierende-covid-19-modellrechnungen-zehn-tage-nach-schuloeffnung-schnellen-die-patientenzahlen-hoch/25741744.html
Wuhan was cleverer than most places https://twitter.com/lovinurbanism/status/1251805157840629760
Beautiful visualization: Estimating an S-curve is difficult, until it's slowing down below linear growth: https://twitter.com/clcrozier/status/1251148890595708938
"Sie alle waren keine schweren Fälle ... sie gelten als genesen. Tauchen können sie aber alle nicht mehr. Die Schäden an der Lunge sind irreversibel... sind wahrscheinlich lebenslang Patienten, da geht es nicht darum, ob sie wieder tauchen oder nicht ..."
https://www.rainews.it/tgr/amp/articoli/2020/04/ContentItem-6708e11e-28dc-4843-a760-e7f926ace61c.html
" #MockDown" is the new term for our

German #PseudoLockDown

(while many nonessential nonremote workers are still made into SPREADERS, so they and their loved ones are sacrificed for profits of the few ...and new infections per day stay in the thousands) https://twitter.com/strmsn/status/1251798619533033473
Last night's @WHO benefit concert #LiveStream, organized by @LadyGaga, collected 128,000,000 US-$.

8h video still available. Some screenshot pics in this tweet (I watched only the last third): https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1251705275431739392

Please alert me of cool #LiveStreams in that ^ thread, thx.
The CLEVER way is:

a) R~0.2 --> i.e. HARDEN the lockdown
b) wait a bit until new cases low
c) #TestAndTrace EVERY SINGLE case

But "clever" you only get in ... China?

Our politics' #EconomyFirst focus ... HARMS THE ECONOMY! https://twitter.com/Karl_Lauterbach/status/1251966357752688645
New cases must probably be in the low 100s, only then it's possible to #TestAndTrace them all, right? https://twitter.com/FSHornschild/status/1252166375273041920
Gov destroys OUR money!

Alternative #PandemicBasicIncome:
nonessential jobs ALL shutdown.
No rent levels city&countryside.

Wuhan needed 38 days only!
7.23 months =€1.2 trillion / 83 mio HUMANS / €1999 per month per HUMAN

SILLY reason for irresponsible WASTING: #ClassIdeology
+ consequence of their #ClassIdeology hypercomplicated CoronaHelp scheme:

They WASTED TIME; lost time they can NOT spend on FIGHTING THE VIRUS. Which is thus still going strong.

See chapters (2.8) and (1.2.5) and (1.2.6) in this collection of mind tools https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1250575782193369093
These instructions how to wear a mask ... are complete? They look pretty good: https://twitter.com/rbb24/status/1251898210618085377
Mask introduction, 110 seconds, German language - Learn from a Chinese. #JunjieShiGottschalk 时俊杰 at #HartAberFair:
1 HEALTH & ECONOMY might want the SAME strategy
2 Consider to DRY OUT the virus, radically

Prof. Michael E Meyer-Hermann
@Helmholtz_HZI

blabla @AnneWill BUT minutes 13:50-18:15 and 21:58-23:32 and 45:12-47:48 = too long for twitter, watch it e.g. here:
?? #pLai3ΔenvLuc2 ??
"Virologe LucMontagnier -2008 für seine Erforschung des HI-Virus #HIV mit dem #Nobelpreis ausgezeichnet- geht davon aus, dass das #SarsCoV2 Virus NICHT von einem Tier übertragen worden ist, sondern in einem Labor entstanden sein muss"
https://www.heise.de/tp/features/pLai3-envLuc2-Wurde-mit-HIV-Pseudovirus-das-Coronavirus-fuer-den-Menschen-gefaehrlich-4705632.html!
Oil price is NEGATIVE (!)

No one wants the commodity that kills civilization & ecosphere anyway; its addiction had caused horrible wars with millions of deaths & refugees until today!

Now a simple virus is conquering oil.

Not all bad in #PandemicTimes? https://twitter.com/BrettFleishman/status/1252323999905771520
"... an exponentially fast return to normality. A country such as the UK ... could be reunified within 2-4 months"
"Green zones: a mathematical proposal for how to exit from the COVID-19 lockdown"
19/4/2020 M.Oliu-Barton Paris, B.Pradelski Oxford https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/green-zones-a-mathematical-proposal-for-how-to-exit-from-the-covid-19-lockdown-ec3ea698f2
Green zones: a mathematical proposal for how to exit from the COVID-19 lockdown

The proposal comes from a group of mathematicians and economists who specialise in modelling random and uncertain situations.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/green-zones-a-mathematical-proposal-for-how-to-exit-from-the-covid-19-lockdown-ec3ea698f2
Denmark, thread. https://twitter.com/NordlichtL/status/1252348367637635074
Pulse oximeter https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1252448266211467264
Rant Thread, substantial criticism
https://twitter.com/pavel23/status/1252529489067859969

Why is better data HIDDEN or NOT COLLECTED about WHERE many infections are happening, in Germany?

Data quality is poorer than in other countries (esp weekend fluctuations) and not getting better. https://twitter.com/pavel23/status/1252529489067859969
"... mutations would increase its infectivity.
To verify [they] infected cells with strains carrying different mutations. The most aggressive strains could generate 270 times as much viral load as weakest type. These strains also killed cells the fastest." https://scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coronavirus-mutations-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study
Coronavirus’s ability to mutate ‘has been vastly underestimated’

The most aggressive strains of Sars-CoV-2 could generate 270 times as much viral load as the least potent type.

https://scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coronavirus-mutations-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study
"The true extent of #Britain's COVID-19 death toll was more than 40% higher than the government's daily figures indicated as of April 10, according to data that put the country on track to become among the worst-hit in Europe." https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN22310D
UK's true COVID-19 death toll far higher than daily figure, data suggests

The true extent of Britain's COVID-19 death toll was more than 40% higher than the government's daily figures indicated as of April 10, according to data that put the country on track to become among...

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN22310D
AFTER #Covid19 "recovery" you might still bei dependent on OXYGEN ! https://twitter.com/frau_minze/status/1252504078162288640
Prof Meyer-Herrmann of @Helmholtz_HZI
= above video edit contains essential 2:07 minutes, with main messages (scroll up 10 tweets).

Thread with many MORE snippets from the same #AnneWill programme 19.4.2020:
https://twitter.com/AscotBlack/status/1252066622346604545

Thx to @AscotBlack!
Danke @Karl_Lauterbach: Nieren!
"Possibly Fatal Coronavirus Crisis: Kidney Dialysis. Ventilators aren’t the only machines in intensive care units that are in short supply. Doctors have been confronting an unexpected rise in patients with failing kidneys." https://twitter.com/Karl_Lauterbach/status/1252602387296124931
Lung problems still, 6 weeks after counted as "recovered" from #Covid19 and it was a MILD course, not even fever; under 40 years old, not in 'vulnerable' group. https://twitter.com/BabySolanas/status/1252555447820849152
A climate scientist about Corona containment strategies. 10 tweets thread by Stefan @Rahmstorf: https://twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/1252637244424421382
"... über ACE2-Rezeptoren zu einer generalisierten Entzündung im #Endothel führt: SARS-CoV-2 ...eine systemische #Endotheliitis, die alle Gefäßbetten erfasse: Herz-, Hirn-, Lungen- und Nierengefäße sowie Gefäße im Darmtrakt ... Mikrozirkulationsstörungen" https://twitter.com/aerztezeitung/status/1252571921025245187
Vietnam: 5 days of ZERO new cases!
Interesting thread: https://twitter.com/CommieTheology/status/1252613214363250689
WATCH THIS ! Video 05:20 min
HOW to do "the Dance", some aspects.
https://twitter.com/AC360/status/1252755613769228288
--> @TomasPueyo !!
at @andersoncooper @AC360
Remember ...it's not about you ...it's not about you ...it's not about you ... It's about everybody else.

If you are irresponsible enough to think that you don't mind if you get the flu, remember: It's not about you. It's about everybody else.

02:21 min https://twitter.com/gregjames/status/1241838854891622401
"Hokkaido ...emergency ...lifted on March 19 ...begun to reopen schools & ...allowing ...public gatherings.

But the latest order reverses all that, asking residents once again to refrain from nonessential trips outside their homes & closing ... schools https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/13/832981899/emergency-declared-in-japanese-prefecture-hit-by-2nd-wave-of-coronavirus-infecti
Emergency Declared In Japanese Prefecture Hit By 2nd Wave Of Coronavirus Infections

Hokkaido, which saw the country's highest incidence of coronavirus as the pandemic first swept through Asia, had been returning to normal until a sudden recent spike in cases.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/13/832981899/emergency-declared-in-japanese-prefecture-hit-by-2nd-wave-of-coronavirus-infecti
"How politicians s**t on students/pupils" by @RezoMusik

Ir/responsible politicians from:
@CDU
@FREIEWAEHLER_BV
@SPDbt
@FDP
@dieLinke

newspaper @DieZEIT: https://www.zeit.de/kultur/2020-04/bildungssystem-abiturpruefung-kultusministerien-armin-laschet-coronavirus
sources 9 pages: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1pHmeJ1bzlBuBy-MK2DiZOQCUBKROMSMeQZ78eItlLis/
19:51 mins orig
02:13 for twitter:
"... the transition to online learning & teaching ..." lol https://twitter.com/MommaUnfiltered/status/1251855748876898306
Return of dangerous patterns of thought in this #CoronaCrisis - such as the myth that the victim is indispensable. The old should die so that the #Economy can live.
https://twitter.com/zeitonline/status/1252926354913406977

(also see chapter '(2.2) Euthanasia' in http://tiny.cc/pTools )
"mit Durchhaltevermögen eine #Containment-Strategie in erreichbare Nähe rückt ...Einschränkungen aufrechterhalten, bis Reproduktionszahl von 0,2 erreicht sei, um dann jedem Infektionsfall nachgehen zu können"

Meyer-Hermann @Helmholtz_HZI
#AgentBasedModels
https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/epidemiologe-zu-corona-massnahmen-es-ist-nicht-klar-welche.676.de.html?dram:article_id=475166
A mysterious blood-clotting complication is killing coronavirus patients.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/coronavirus-blood-clots/
By  @ArianaEunjung, April 22, 2020, @WashingtonPost
A mysterious blood-clotting complication is killing coronavirus patients

Once thought to be a relatively straightforward respiratory virus, covid-19 is proving to be much more complex and frightening

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/coronavirus-blood-clots/
Comparison of prediction models over time https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1253050397528391680
Truth rage https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1253180298927525888
"You get your money, you s**tbags"
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1252997253079449601

Serious & reasonable suggestion:
Mortgage payments, any credit due ... are just delayed, by the length of the shutdown.

Or as the economy has inertia and needs time to restart ...by 1.5 times the length of the shutdown.
READ THIS - Coronavirus: Learning How to Dance - Part 1: What We Can Learn from Countries Around the World,

by @TomasPueyo (author of "why you must act now" and "the hammer and the dance", see above): https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-learning-how-to-dance-b8420170203e
Coronavirus: Learning How to Dance

Part 1: A Dancing Masterclass, or What We Can Learn from Countries Around the World

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-learning-how-to-dance-b8420170203e
10 tweets current data with focus on GERMANY. https://twitter.com/HerrNaumann/status/1253254050902167553
'vaccine technology has been used on other diseases, including ... MERS [and] Ebola.
ChAdOx1 ... "Chaddox-one", is a version of a common cold virus that has been modified ... doesn't cause symptoms .... it carries some genetic material of the coronavirus.' https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-why-oxford-university-is-so-confident-in-an-early-vaccine-win-11977568
Coronavirus: Why Oxford university is so confident in an early vaccine win

Past success of the technology Oxford University is using for the COVID-19 vaccine is why they think it can be ready by September.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-why-oxford-university-is-so-confident-in-an-early-vaccine-win-11977568
"Loss of sense of smell, strokes, epileptic seizures, paralysis, headaches - there are now whole series of observations that show that infection with Sars-CoV-2 can also affect the central nervous system." https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-kann-auch-das-gehirn-befallen-schlaganfaelle-kopfschmerzen-atemlaehmung-a-d365d33c-d330-49a1-a7b6-6b374e30ccb1
Schlaganfälle, Kopfschmerzen, Atemlähmung: Das Coronavirus kann auch das Gehirn befallen - DER...

Vor allem bei schweren Verläufen von Covid-19 beobachten Ärzte auch neurologische Probleme. Wie bahnt sich das Virus den Weg ins Gehirn? Und welchen Schaden richtet es dort an? Erste Erklärungsvers...

https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-kann-auch-das-gehirn-befallen-schlaganfaelle-kopfschmerzen-atemlaehmung-a-d365d33c-d330-49a1-a7b6-6b374e30ccb1
#WorkplaceInfection >40% employees on that floor. Korea. "Call center" means: SPEAKING, so exhaling large amounts of virus. Ouch. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1253767231940562945
... temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, and UV ... https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1253816512755822593
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch
"Bei einem 85-jährigen Mann erhöht COVID-19 die Wahrscheinlichkeit, das nächste Jahr nicht zu erleben, von 8% auf 16%, bei einem 45-Jährigen von 0.13% auf 0.33%, was sogar mehr als einer Verdoppelung entspricht."
https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/20/covid-19-update-von-prof-paul-r-vogt/
1/2
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch"Bei einem 85-jährigen Mann erhöht COVID-19 die Wahrscheinlichkeit, das nächste Jahr nicht zu erleben, von 8% auf 16%, bei einem 45-Jährigen von 0.13% auf 0.33%, was sogar mehr als einer Verdoppelung entspricht." https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/20/covid-19-update-von-prof-paul-r-vogt/1/2
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch"Bei einem 85-jährigen Mann erhöht COVID-19 die Wahrscheinlichkeit, das nächste Jahr nicht zu erleben, von 8% auf 16%, bei einem 45-Jährigen von 0.13% auf 0.33%, was sogar mehr als einer Verdoppelung entspricht." https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/20/covid-19-update-von-prof-paul-r-vogt/1/2
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch"Bei einem 85-jährigen Mann erhöht COVID-19 die Wahrscheinlichkeit, das nächste Jahr nicht zu erleben, von 8% auf 16%, bei einem 45-Jährigen von 0.13% auf 0.33%, was sogar mehr als einer Verdoppelung entspricht." https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/20/covid-19-update-von-prof-paul-r-vogt/1/2
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch"Bei einem 85-jährigen Mann erhöht COVID-19 die Wahrscheinlichkeit, das nächste Jahr nicht zu erleben, von 8% auf 16%, bei einem 45-Jährigen von 0.13% auf 0.33%, was sogar mehr als einer Verdoppelung entspricht." https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/20/covid-19-update-von-prof-paul-r-vogt/1/2
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch
"das übliche Überlegenheitsgefühl des Westens mit seinen «besten Gesundheitswesen der Welt» .... verpasst, dass gewisse Länder in Asien fortschrittlicher sind, und eine Pandemie um Welten effektiver zu managen wissen"
https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/20/covid-19-update-von-prof-paul-r-vogt/
2/2
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch"das übliche Überlegenheitsgefühl des Westens mit seinen «besten Gesundheitswesen der Welt» .... verpasst, dass gewisse Länder in Asien fortschrittlicher sind, und eine Pandemie um Welten effektiver zu managen wissen" https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/20/covid-19-update-von-prof-paul-r-vogt/2/2
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch"das übliche Überlegenheitsgefühl des Westens mit seinen «besten Gesundheitswesen der Welt» .... verpasst, dass gewisse Länder in Asien fortschrittlicher sind, und eine Pandemie um Welten effektiver zu managen wissen" https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/20/covid-19-update-von-prof-paul-r-vogt/2/2
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch"das übliche Überlegenheitsgefühl des Westens mit seinen «besten Gesundheitswesen der Welt» .... verpasst, dass gewisse Länder in Asien fortschrittlicher sind, und eine Pandemie um Welten effektiver zu managen wissen" https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/20/covid-19-update-von-prof-paul-r-vogt/2/2
Prof Paul R Vogt @Mittellaendisch"das übliche Überlegenheitsgefühl des Westens mit seinen «besten Gesundheitswesen der Welt» .... verpasst, dass gewisse Länder in Asien fortschrittlicher sind, und eine Pandemie um Welten effektiver zu managen wissen" https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/20/covid-19-update-von-prof-paul-r-vogt/2/2
"the most important thing for people to understand is that large strokes are very treatable. ... But it has to be done quickly, ideally within 6 hours, but no longer than 24 hours ... if you have symptoms of stroke, you need to call the ambulance urgently" https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/
Young and middle-aged people, barely sick with covid-19, are dying of strokes

Doctors sound alarm about patients in their 30s and 40s left debilitated or dead by strokes. Some didn’t even know they were infected by coronavirus.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/
"... REFUSE to relate closely with anyone NOT WEARING A MASK ..."

(i.e. ruthless, dumb, egoistic people)
#RefuseBarbarism
RISING:
Russia Mexiko Brasil Canada Peru Sweden Turkey Pakistan USA

HIGH:
USA UK Italy Spain France Germany Brasil Canada China Iran Turkey

#DailyDeaths due to #Covid19 (7 days rolling averages, i.e. delayed & smoothed)
RISING:Russia Mexiko Brasil Canada Peru Sweden Turkey Pakistan USAHIGH:USA UK Italy Spain France Germany Brasil Canada China Iran Turkey #DailyDeaths due to #Covid19 (7 days rolling averages, i.e. delayed & smoothed)
RISING:Russia Mexiko Brasil Canada Peru Sweden Turkey Pakistan USAHIGH:USA UK Italy Spain France Germany Brasil Canada China Iran Turkey #DailyDeaths due to #Covid19 (7 days rolling averages, i.e. delayed & smoothed)
RISING:Russia Mexiko Brasil Canada Peru Sweden Turkey Pakistan USAHIGH:USA UK Italy Spain France Germany Brasil Canada China Iran Turkey #DailyDeaths due to #Covid19 (7 days rolling averages, i.e. delayed & smoothed)
"klüger ...Kontaktbeschränkungen ...um weitere Wochen auszudehnen ...hätte Vorteile gehabt ...Mit weniger Neuinfektionen.. Möglichkeit bestanden die Ansteckungen nachzuvollziehen...

Medizinisch aber auch ökonomisch wäre dies die bessere Strategie gewesen" https://taz.de/Karl-Lauterbach-ueber-Covid-19/!5678392/
Karl Lauterbach über Covid-19: „Die Pandemie ist schrecklich“

Kaum jemand mahnt gerade zu mehr Vorsicht als der SPD-Gesundheitsexperte. Ein Gespräch über Vertrauen und Kneipenbesuche im Jahr 2021

https://taz.de/Karl-Lauterbach-ueber-Covid-19/!5678392/
Sometimes no ventilator is better!

"...he struggled to breathe even with an oxygen mask & felt so sick the ventilator seemed inevitable.
Even so his doctors never put him on a machine that would breathe for him. A week later he was well enough to go home" https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ventilators-specia/special-report-as-virus-advances-doctors-rethink-rush-to-ventilate-idUSKCN2251PE
Special Report: As virus advances, doctors rethink rush to ventilate

When he was diagnosed with COVID-19, Andre Bergmann knew exactly where he wanted to be treated: the Bethanien hospital lung clinic in Moers, near his home in northwestern Germany.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ventilators-specia/special-report-as-virus-advances-doctors-rethink-rush-to-ventilate-idUSKCN2251PE
Covid19 lungs versus healthy lungs https://twitter.com/19Insomnia82/status/1251098574223560704
Masks. Of course. Asians gave the example - but Westerners are too barbarically egoistic, to even understand WHY.
Finally ... masks obligatory. 2 fricking months later. What an insanely catastrophic decision system we live in. Dominated by the 51% dumbest. https://twitter.com/Karl_Lauterbach/status/1254469844726145024
'Now, what I call the “prevention paradox” has set in. People are claiming we over-reacted, there is political and economic pressure to return to normal.' https://theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/virologist-christian-drosten-germany-coronavirus-expert-interview
Germany's Covid-19 expert: 'For many, I'm the evil guy crippling the economy'

Germany’s leading coronavirus expert Christian Drosten on Merkel’s leadership, the UK response and the ‘prevention paradox’Coronavirus – latest updatesSee all our coronavirus coverage

https://theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/virologist-christian-drosten-germany-coronavirus-expert-interview
Great @JacindaArdern! First #climate leadership, now #Covid19!

#NewZealand LEVEL 4 to 3, after "reported new Covid-19 cases was in single digits for 7th day".

Danger: watching this, you might HATE 51% dumb people in your country & the morons they elect. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12327690
Covid 19 coronavirus: Last day of lockdown - Jacinda Ardern's message to New Zealand

PM Jacinda Ardern said 'lives and livelihoods' depend on the country's response.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&amp;objectid=12327690
New Zealand
* currently eliminated coronavirus
* reported <1,500 confirmed/probable cases & 19 deaths
* 4.9 million population, so
* prevalence ~ 300 cases per million
* mortality ~ 4 dead per million
New Zealand now moved from Level 4 lockdown to Level 3. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52436658
Coronavirus 'currently eliminated' in New Zealand

The country has stopped community transmission of Covid-19, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52436658
7 images of dead or suffering children, or the parents they lost ... in an angry rant thread, accusing the selfish "whiners" and #CoronaDeniers ... of being sociopathic. https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/1254548594079805442
"... thank God for the motherf**king nerds right now..." 🙏🤓s https://twitter.com/jonlajoiecomedy/status/1240325657789206529
First graders with social distancing headgear https://twitter.com/chowleen/status/1254590781446410240
How is YOUR REGION doing? Germany by districts "LandKreise" (and "Bundesland"). #Covid19.

Site built from scratch, completely new. Please give FEEDBACK, and spread the word = RETWEET, thanks.

With huge local & regional differences, this is useful: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1255620786511130624 RT.
"A non-trivial outcome of our study is that strong suppression strategies lead to lower total costs than taking no action, when containment efforts are not relaxed with falling infection rates." (page 6)
https://clausen.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Corona_all.pdf
"Beyond herd immunity point, infected-case counts remain elevated for considerable time. The outbreak stops completely only once 94% of population has been infected ... Fig. 1a. The view that epidemic is essentially over once the herd immunity point is reached is erroneous" (p.6)
"Beyond herd immunity point, infected-case counts remain elevated for considerable time. The outbreak stops completely only once 94% of population has been infected ... Fig. 1a. The view that epidemic is essentially over once the herd immunity point is reached is erroneous" (p.6)
"Beyond herd immunity point, infected-case counts remain elevated for considerable time. The outbreak stops completely only once 94% of population has been infected ... Fig. 1a. The view that epidemic is essentially over once the herd immunity point is reached is erroneous" (p.6)
ZEIT "war durch ...Politiker und ...Medien der Eindruck entstanden, die Wissenschaft sei sich bei ihren Einschätzungen der Lage nicht einig. Die gemeinsame Veröffentlichung der Forscherinnen & Forscher widerspricht dieser Wahrnehmung."

FG + HG + LG +MPG ! https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2020-04/coronavirus-strategie-eindaemmung-neuinfektionen-wissenschaftliche-stellungnahme
ZEIT "war durch ...Politiker und ...Medien der Eindruck entstanden, die Wissenschaft sei sich bei ihren Einschätzungen der Lage nicht einig. Die gemeinsame Veröffentlichung der Forscherinnen & Forscher widerspricht dieser Wahrnehmung."FG + HG + LG +MPG ! https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2020-04/coronavirus-strategie-eindaemmung-neuinfektionen-wissenschaftliche-stellungnahme
ZEIT "war durch ...Politiker und ...Medien der Eindruck entstanden, die Wissenschaft sei sich bei ihren Einschätzungen der Lage nicht einig. Die gemeinsame Veröffentlichung der Forscherinnen & Forscher widerspricht dieser Wahrnehmung."FG + HG + LG +MPG ! https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2020-04/coronavirus-strategie-eindaemmung-neuinfektionen-wissenschaftliche-stellungnahme
"Eine konsequente Eindämmung von SARS-CoV-2 ist aus epidemiologischer Sicht derzeit die einzig sinnvolle Strategie"

Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft
Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
Leibniz-Gemeinschaft
MaxPlanck-Gesellschaft

Strategien zur Eindämmung der COVID-19-Pandemie
https://mpg.de/14759871/corona-stellungnahme
"Eine konsequente Eindämmung von SARS-CoV-2 ist aus epidemiologischer Sicht derzeit die einzig sinnvolle Strategie"Fraunhofer-GesellschaftHelmholtz-GemeinschaftLeibniz-GemeinschaftMaxPlanck-GesellschaftStrategien zur Eindämmung der COVID-19-Pandemie https://mpg.de/14759871/corona-stellungnahme
"Eine konsequente Eindämmung von SARS-CoV-2 ist aus epidemiologischer Sicht derzeit die einzig sinnvolle Strategie"Fraunhofer-GesellschaftHelmholtz-GemeinschaftLeibniz-GemeinschaftMaxPlanck-GesellschaftStrategien zur Eindämmung der COVID-19-Pandemie https://mpg.de/14759871/corona-stellungnahme
doctors protest in Germany https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1255442955386499072
dentists protest in France https://mobile.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/dentisteapoil-les-dentistes-se-deshabillent-pour-interpeller-sur-le-manque-de-moyens-de-protection-dont-ils-disposent_3937073.html
Coronavirus : des dentistes posent nus sur les réseaux sociaux pour interpeller sur le manque de...

Déjà 75 photos "au naturel" circulent sur les réseaux sociaux, et une vidéo #dentisteapoil sera mise en ligne lundi soir sur Youtube. "On ne sera pas prêts le 11 mai", alertent les spécialistes de...

https://mobile.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/dentisteapoil-les-dentistes-se-deshabillent-pour-interpeller-sur-le-manque-de-moyens-de-protection-dont-ils-disposent_3937073.html
Never ever trust a #CoronaDenier ever again! They will always be dangerous. Again, they seem to be the same mentally challenged individuals and corrupt organisations - once evil, always evil?

"links between climate science denial and Covid-19 downplaying" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/25/climate-science-deniers-downplaying-coronavirus-pandemic
Climate science deniers at forefront of downplaying coronavirus pandemic

Vocal influencers such as the conspiracy theorist Alex Jones and the Heartland Institute are hitting back at a time when people’s trust in science is rising

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/25/climate-science-deniers-downplaying-coronavirus-pandemic
1 million #recovered = 31% of
3.3 million #confirmed cases

1.3 million cases "with an #outcome", of which
230k deaths = 18% #lethality

#deaths: USA=64k IT=28k UK=27k ES=25k FR=24k DE=6.6k IR=6.0k BR=5.9k TR=3.2k CN=4.6k

2 million cases still " #active"

April30th #Covid19data
>230,000 deaths by #Covid19
227,898 deaths by #Tsunami2004
#Covid19: Local & regional differences begin to matter. More comfort navigating the data - both projects are linked together now: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1256039231492939782 - please share #cov19de. Thanks.
#CoronaParties anyone? https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1255986033923145731
New functionalities in #cov19de = #covid19 data website: Sorting by different measures, 14 days incidence. https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1256374051032924161 Please retweet http://tiny.cc/cov19de  - thanks.
"Hello I'm from the government, with an update on the #pandemic. ...in order to flatten the curve, we've had to turn off the machine. The machine has not been turned off for a long long time ...

... we should have a little chat about what just happened" https://twitter.com/thejuicemedia/status/1256028302650703872
Projekt #cov19de hat neue Funktionen: Sortieren & 14 Tage Inzidenz - http://tiny.cc/cov19de  - Deutschland's Kreise.
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1256375741614305282
Not all is bad about Corona. For 30 years this view https://twitter.com/timesofindia/status/1255755012010987520?s=19
had been destroyed - by capitalism consumerism dirt. Now that "the machine" powered down for a few weeks ... the better air quality allows to see the Himalayas again. Wow, what had we allowed to happen?
Ooops UK https://twitter.com/kevpluck/status/1256567374293217283
#cov19de crowdsourced data Germany http://tiny.cc/cov19de  https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1257254873508298752
how they beat #Covid19
* early, common-sense action
* isolate away from home
* strong lockdown
* strict travel restrictions
* massive testing
* face masks for everyone https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1256769252369072134
Interesting plot: DailyDeaths
versus TotalDeaths until then

lol-log-plot, both per capita, for >> 10 countries & world https://twitter.com/epsilon3141/status/1256525633808629765
Shape of the weekday bias, averaged over all weeks: https://twitter.com/Einzigartiger/status/1257376474216226823 Data: @RKI_de = german health agency #Covid19
Paris France: "scientists retested samples from 24 patients treated in Dec & January who tested negative for flu.
... we had one who was positive for Covid-19 on 27 December" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/french-hospital-discovers-covid-19-case-december-retested (perhaps false positives cross reaction with other coronaviruses?? perhaps not).
French hospital discovers Covid-19 case from December

Man found to have had virus a month before government confirmed first cases

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/french-hospital-discovers-covid-19-case-december-retested
Heinsberg study preprint: https://twitter.com/hendrikstreeck/status/1257228751617830913

Careful: IFR=0.36% was extrapolated from only 7 deaths (so they should rather say ~0.4%).

Plus it is a horribly high number:
94% * 7.8 billion * 0.4% #lethality = 29 million deaths

(for the 94% scroll up 20 tweets to April 30)
11 years per #covid19death ...

... is the answer to an -unethical?- question.

"years of life lost (ylls) for the average Briton/Italian who passed away was ~ 11, meaning that FEW of #covid19’s victims would have died soon otherwise"

Before their time:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/02/would-most-covid-19-victims-have-died-soon-without-the-virus
11 years per #covid19death ... ... is the answer to an -unethical?- question."years of life lost (ylls) for the average Briton/Italian who passed away was ~ 11, meaning that FEW of #covid19’s victims would have died soon otherwise"Before their time: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/02/would-most-covid-19-victims-have-died-soon-without-the-virus
11 years per #covid19death ... ... is the answer to an -unethical?- question."years of life lost (ylls) for the average Briton/Italian who passed away was ~ 11, meaning that FEW of #covid19’s victims would have died soon otherwise"Before their time: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/02/would-most-covid-19-victims-have-died-soon-without-the-virus
Hammer and Dance countries https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1257194240112648192
German #OpenData resources - useful list, work in progress https://twitter.com/denkubatorin/status/1250324242232557573
my #cov19de project is being used - some feedback: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1257417599534669824
Covid19 Dashboard = collection of (mostly auto-updated) data resources, by @OliverRack, work in progress: https://www.oliverrack.eu/ogpbw/coviddash  very long page, interesting ...
"I am a time-traveler from 2025. I lived through the events of 2020 which ruptured the fabric of society as we knew it then. As humans, we adapted, and survived. Here is what my world looks like now. This is my #NewNormal."

Visionary. READ THIS thread: https://twitter.com/varun_mathur/status/1256726823393689600
"If you get infected, you have the same risk of dying as two months ago."

"The lockdown was incredibly effective." https://twitter.com/AguzziTemp/status/1256471145374797824
IFR = infection fatality rates = death of ppl truly infected
CFR = case fatality rates, death of ppl KNOWN to be infected
https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1256912958761754624
"Every day we wait to get them done, billions are wasted, millions lose their livelihoods, and the downturn will be harder."

"Governments ... are taking too long" https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1256869356786421761
Excellent German article on R_eff = how #ReproductionNumber is calculated from empirical case number data, at @RKI_de :
https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Corona-Pandemie-Die-Mathematik-hinter-den-Reproduktionszahlen-R-4712676.html

I have used a variation of that same method in my http://tiny.cc/cov19de  project.
Corona-Pandemie: Die Mathematik hinter den Reproduktionszahlen R

In den vergangenen Tagen ist bei den Debatten über das Coronavirus die Reproduktionszahl in den Fokus gerückt. Zeit, ein bisschen was zu erklären.

https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Corona-Pandemie-Die-Mathematik-hinter-den-Reproduktionszahlen-R-4712676.html
For the effective #ReproductionNumber R_eff ... I have used a variation of that ^ method, in my http://tiny.cc/cov19de  project - see the Python code here https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1256776383642165253
China vs the White House Monster
By #Xinhua:
Interesting interview! #SpanishFlu researcher:

"...hat in Doktorarbeit zur #SpanischenGrippe geforscht ... die 2.Welle ... war viel stärker & tödlicher. Im Okt & Nov 1918 verstarben weltweit die meisten Menschen ... 27 bis 50 Millionen Menschenleben ..."
https://immanuel.de/aktuelles/nachrichten/aktuelle-nachrichten/detail/article/lehren-aus-der-spanischen-grippe-fuer-die-corona-pandemie-droht-eine-zweite-infektionswelle/
#PooledTests with clever combinatorics. Configurations for 1%, 2.5%, 5% and 10% prevalence suggested, see image.

"Tapestry" they called it, and made an app with instructions! https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.20077727v2.full.pdf+html Tapestry: A Single-Round Smart Pooling Technique for COVID-19 Testing
My article in #TelePolis about #Cov19de. The new site http://tiny.cc/cov19de  focuses on the 401 districts in Germany, and their time series of infection data. Use deepL .com for translation. https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1259000828272271360
Note by 4 tweets in 1 week ^ this thread is patchy & very incomplete now. I even increased my efforts, but my time went into e.g. the article.

Project http://tiny.cc/cov19de  is worth it!

See e.g. the German tweets about it
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1259765157988835328
(which link to English tweets)
You can follow @drandreaskruger.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

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