1/ Frustrated with scenario analysing your business to death?
2/ Well there's a simple reason for that. You can't forecast the unforecastable. You need simple hacks to make simple decisions.
3/ Just work bottom up on your resources and ask the question - how lean can I go without breaking the machine?
4/ Experience will tell you -- make deep and hard cuts once and early.

I promise you, if you do 2-3 cuts on the coming 6 months you will completely destroy everyone's confidence.

Rebuild your team and operations as you regain confidence.

I know it sucks.
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