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Comprehensive Long term technical review of Reliance.
I have covered the price movement of the past 12 years.
This is the most detailed analysis you will find on twitter.
Do share if you like it.
LET'S GO
I have covered the price movement of the past 12 years.
This is the most detailed analysis you will find on twitter.
Do share if you like it.
LET'S GO
The most important thing you should learn from this review is
STOP WATCHING THE NEWS. START WATCHING THE CHARTS.
I have divided the analysis into several parts to help you understand it better.
Don't worry if you don't understand somethings.
STOP WATCHING THE NEWS. START WATCHING THE CHARTS.
I have divided the analysis into several parts to help you understand it better.
Don't worry if you don't understand somethings.
We will start post 2008 period.
After topping out in Jan 2008, Reliance saw 11 months of clear bear market. There was blood on the streets and Reliance was no exception with a fall of 72% from the top.
This should act as a reminder to all of us, A SCARED MARKET KNOWS NO BOTTOM.
After topping out in Jan 2008, Reliance saw 11 months of clear bear market. There was blood on the streets and Reliance was no exception with a fall of 72% from the top.
This should act as a reminder to all of us, A SCARED MARKET KNOWS NO BOTTOM.
I will discuss in the upcoming tweets that how we could have predicted that top.
Finally after October of 2008, we saw a match of demand and supply. A consolidation range was formed between 270-350 for 5 months, eventually leading to a breakout in March of 2009.
You can clearly see the accumulation zone in the graph.
BUT THIS ACCUMULATION HAS ONE PROBLEM.
You can clearly see the accumulation zone in the graph.
BUT THIS ACCUMULATION HAS ONE PROBLEM.
A V shaped bottom was made but there was a problem.
No RE-TEST of the previous resistance.
This would become clearer in the next 18 months.
Several attempts (9 in total) were made to breakout of this consolidation range. Many believed that we were deemed to see a breakout.
No RE-TEST of the previous resistance.
This would become clearer in the next 18 months.
Several attempts (9 in total) were made to breakout of this consolidation range. Many believed that we were deemed to see a breakout.
But we saw a clear breakdown.
This was CLEARLY because we had not tested the previous resistance of the accumulation zone (reversal zone).
The break-out was not strong enough because of no retest, which lead to the accumulation forming a short term distribution.
This was CLEARLY because we had not tested the previous resistance of the accumulation zone (reversal zone).
The break-out was not strong enough because of no retest, which lead to the accumulation forming a short term distribution.
The good news for the bulls was that the breakdown found its support at the previous accumulation block's resistance.
It wasn't magic, it was just clear that the institutional orders were already placed at this level. Institutional blocs was being formed.
It wasn't magic, it was just clear that the institutional orders were already placed at this level. Institutional blocs was being formed.
An uptrend was now confirmed.
The reversal was retested.
Breakdown of the consolidation found a support.
This led to formations of 3 higher highs and higher lows in the next 3 years between 2012-2015.
The reversal was retested.
Breakdown of the consolidation found a support.
This led to formations of 3 higher highs and higher lows in the next 3 years between 2012-2015.
The uptrend finally broke in the start of 2015.
THIS IS WHERE IT GET VERY INTERESTING.
The breakdown of the uptrend found a support at the highest point of the reversal breakout candle.
The charts were speaking one thing. Institutions were placing orders at the reversal levels.
THIS IS WHERE IT GET VERY INTERESTING.
The breakdown of the uptrend found a support at the highest point of the reversal breakout candle.
The charts were speaking one thing. Institutions were placing orders at the reversal levels.
Support then finally led to a bullish accumulation zone (the previous one had failed because of no retest)
The accumulation zone was finally confirmed by several higher lows
(Some called it a bullish triangle inside the accumulation)
Finally in Feb 2017, there was a breakout.
The accumulation zone was finally confirmed by several higher lows
(Some called it a bullish triangle inside the accumulation)
Finally in Feb 2017, there was a breakout.
After this we saw an unprecedented, but organic growth in the stock price of Reliance.
Some people believe that it was inflated and artificial rally, it as you can clearly see in the chart, there were more than 3 periods of accumulation and sustained growth.
Some people believe that it was inflated and artificial rally, it as you can clearly see in the chart, there were more than 3 periods of accumulation and sustained growth.
July of 2018, we saw an uptrend channel (which finally turns bearish if not broken)
The channel continued its organic growth (making Higher highs and higher lows) but eventually broke down in March of 2020.
The breakdown was expected but it was a lot more bearish than expected.
The channel continued its organic growth (making Higher highs and higher lows) but eventually broke down in March of 2020.
The breakdown was expected but it was a lot more bearish than expected.
All expected support levels
1275-1240
1188-1162
1113-1087 broke down like a house of cards.
1275-1240
1188-1162
1113-1087 broke down like a house of cards.
So could the top have been predicted?
There were a few signs.
A triple top was being formed.
We tried thrice to break the same level, with decreasing momentum and failed.
The MVO turned neutral from bullish in the second attempt and suddenly bearish in the third attempt.
There were a few signs.
A triple top was being formed.
We tried thrice to break the same level, with decreasing momentum and failed.
The MVO turned neutral from bullish in the second attempt and suddenly bearish in the third attempt.
We currently sit at the base of the previous accumulation zone, which is now acting as a support.
The current resistances lie as follows
1250-1260
1300-1305
1360-1385
1250-1260
1300-1305
1360-1385
This finishes the historical analysis of Reliance. I will do an updated analysis very soon.
I hope it was helpful and you learnt that Price movement can tell you everything, so NO NEED TO LISTEN TO THE NEWS.
Read it a few times, you will get better.
I hope it was helpful and you learnt that Price movement can tell you everything, so NO NEED TO LISTEN TO THE NEWS.
Read it a few times, you will get better.
This trade was done live and entry and exit were shared live on twitter.
See below. https://twitter.com/day_simran/status/1247393138945056769?s=20
See below. https://twitter.com/day_simran/status/1247393138945056769?s=20
