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Italy is a model for our near future, and it suggests that things may be grim 1/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/opinion/italy-coronavirus-naples.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
It's notable that the economic hardship is worst in the south, which was late to the infection but poor to begin with. Campania has less than half Lombardy's GDP per capita 2/ https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/6839731/1-21052015-AP-EN.pdf/c3f5f43b-397c-40fd-a0a4-7e68e3bea8cd
The parallels with the U.S. south are obvious. Mississippi has less than half the per capita GDP of New York 3/ https://apps.bea.gov/itable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=70&step=1
And the social safety net is much worse in the U.S. south than in Italy. This could be terrible 4/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/opinion/coronavirus-Tennessee-southern-states.html
