A rise in the US UR of >0.5% off 24M rolling lows has been the 100% threshold for recession. This has historically corresponded w/ deep equity bear mkts. In ‘01/‘08, equities went on to fall another 35%/50% after the signal. Strategic buying opportunity for equities? Not yet imo.

Here is the long-term chart of the US unemployment rate deviation from 24M rolling lows. A monthly close above 0.5% has a 100% track record over 70Y at signalling a recession.

Meanwhile, my US cycle risk index is currently at 68% & suggests that the US unemployment rate will rise ~3.5% above 24M rolling lows. My guess is this lead index will soon be nearer 100%.

Finally, the last 9 times the US unemployment rate rose >0.5% from 24M rolling lows, US equities have historically bottomed 70W (16.1M) later on average.