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Only makes a 2-4% difference in total mortality...
Weigh up the financial costs of closures to the country...
Callous and heartless assessment @BBCNews
1/8
BBC News - Coronavirus: Scientists question school closures impact https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52180783
Weigh up the financial costs of closures to the country...
Callous and heartless assessment @BBCNews
1/8
BBC News - Coronavirus: Scientists question school closures impact https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52180783
A 2% increase on the current published figures (5373) is an extra 106 people.
NOTE - This is ONLY hospital deaths in the UK, and the data is very likely skewed due to time lag in reporting deaths.
2/8 https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong
NOTE - This is ONLY hospital deaths in the UK, and the data is very likely skewed due to time lag in reporting deaths.
2/8 https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong
This means that the absolute lowest impact so far of closing schools is saving 106 lives, using this model.
NOTE - The model does not take into account the knock impacts to wider families of exposure to this virus if schools had remained open.
3/8 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-52003804
NOTE - The model does not take into account the knock impacts to wider families of exposure to this virus if schools had remained open.
3/8 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-52003804
I find it strange that the figures being quoted in research of this virus are taken as absolutes. There is so much lag in the data that even using today's data means we are 10+ days behind what is actually happening.
4/8
4/8
Early on we were told young people would only get mild symptoms. Now that picture is changing with more cases coming to light.
Biggest mistake in data analysis? Probably drawing conclusions from too small a sample size.
Sound familiar?
5/8
Biggest mistake in data analysis? Probably drawing conclusions from too small a sample size.
Sound familiar?
5/8
So, closing schools has very conservatively saved, possibly, 106 lives. Probably a lot more.
Which lives?
Let's assume kids are less likely to become very ill.
Older people they come into contact with? Teachers. Parents. Grandparents. Neighbours. Passersby.
6/8
Which lives?
Let's assume kids are less likely to become very ill.
Older people they come into contact with? Teachers. Parents. Grandparents. Neighbours. Passersby.
6/8
Who is prepared to select the 106 people (minimum) to die, leaving families without parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles and, sometimes, children, all for the sake of money?
If you raise your hand and volunteer, you are a monster.
7/8
If you raise your hand and volunteer, you are a monster.
7/8
Sending kids back to school too early means that more teachers will die. More mothers and fathers will die. More grandparents will die.
But at least the economy will be ok.
End of thread
But at least the economy will be ok.
End of thread