Final thought on the COVID modelling for now:

This modelling - which would've been evolving for months - has been released basically at the end of its usefulness.

It's very much a look back at what could've been if we had let the virus spread unmitigated or with less control.

In that sense, for the government it serves as a justification for its restrictions.

It doesn't tell us which controls are most effective, it just tells us that social mixing had to be reduced by a third.

And it doesn't tell us anything about where we go from here.

More thoughts in this thread: https://twitter.com/CaseyBriggs/status/1247405096524111873