here's the full COVID modelling released today by the Doherty Institute. I'm going to dive in now but if you see anything interesting let me know!

https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/covid-19-modelling-papers

Modelling assumptions:
* R_0 = 2.53
* Between 4.3 and 8.6% of infections require hospitalisation
* 60% of ICU admissions are aged 70 years and over

Researchers modelled the impact of constraining spread by 25% and 33%, overlaid on existing case targeted interventions.

Modelling makes the point that in a mitigated/flattened epidemic, *more* people access the health system, because hospitals haven't needed to turn any/as many people away

"Transmission reduction of 33% makes treatment of all cases achievable in the majority of simulations if three to five- fold ICU bed capacity can be achieved"

"The effectiveness of multiple distancing measures including lockdown has been demonstrated in Europe, but the contributions of individual measures cannot yet be reliably differentiated"

i.e. we can't quantify exactly what effect closing pubs has had (or closing schools)

with no control measures and no expansion of ICUs, intensive care capacity would likely have been exceeded for more than 15 weeks.

With just isolation of cases and no social distancing, ICU capacity would've been exceeded for even longer.

Presumably that's because the curve has been flattened, but not enough. So under those controls ICU capacity would be exceeded for longer, but by less.

this is a confronting estimate: if you're over 80 and you get the virus, you have almost a 2 in 3 chance of ending up in hospital