Australia's official #COVID19 modelling has been published by @TheDohertyInst. This is the work being used by the government to inform their decisions. You can access the papers here https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/covid-19-modelling-papers

The presser is being live-tweeted here #COVID19 https://twitter.com/TheDohertyInst/status/1247394318207217664?s=19

If social distancing achieves 33% reduction on R0 and ICU capacity can be expanded by 3-5x "makes treatment of all cases achievable in the majority of simulations". Authors caution that one of the big unknowns is how this season's influenza surge will coincide w #COVID19

Major underpinnings of the model:
- R0 2.53
- Doubling time 6.4d
- Presymptomatic transmission assumed possible for 48h
- Isolation of cases at sx onset, 80% reduction in infectiousness
- 80% of cases assumed adhered to quarantine
- Overall infectiousness reduced by 50%

The model looks at two social distancing scenarios: constraining spread by 25% and by 33%. These reduced R0 to 1.9 and 1.69 respectively. It also considers expanding ICU beds by 150%, 200% and 300%. This could reduce maxed out period by more than half #COVID19

"Overlaid social restrictions will need to be applied at some level over the course of the epidemic to ensure that systems do not become overwhelmed & that essential health sector functions, including care of COVID-19 patients, can be maintained" #COVID19

Clinical assumptions:
- Half of all consulting/admission capacity in Australia available to #COVID19 pts
- Steep increase in ICU requirement by age (60% 70+)
- Primary care takes mild cases until maxed out, then ED
- As wards max out, EDs face bed block
- Some rpt pres

Overall, if ICU beds are doubled (alone, not considering other measures), 10-30% of people requiring care receive it under the model, reaches 20-40% if capacity increased 5x #COVID19

"Reducing #COVID19 morbidity & mortality will rely on a combo of measures to strengthen & extend public health & clinical capacity, along w reduction of overall transmission. Ongoing attention to maintaining & strengthening capacity of health systems & workers is needed"

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"An unmitigated #COVID19 epidemic would dramatically exceed capacity of the Australian health system over a prolonged period. Case isolation & contact quarantine alone will be insufficient to constrain case presentations w/in feasible level of expansion of health sector capacity"