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1/27 | Deep Dive : The WASHINGTON 2022/2023 Non-Conference Schedule Problem
We all know that Washington is in trouble when it comes to finding a home & home series for 2022-2023. They are one of only 3 P5 programs who does not have a P5 non-con opponent scheduled either year.
We all know that Washington is in trouble when it comes to finding a home & home series for 2022-2023. They are one of only 3 P5 programs who does not have a P5 non-con opponent scheduled either year.
2/27 | Is it hopeless? Maybe. But I'm pleased to report that there are some creative options that can salvage the schedule in those seasons.
In 2019 I built a model that recommends non-conference pairings for all FBS teams. It relies on reasonable assumptions made about the
In 2019 I built a model that recommends non-conference pairings for all FBS teams. It relies on reasonable assumptions made about the
3/27 | scheduling preferences of 130 FBS teams and the future bookings tracked on @FBSchedules, the work of @KevinKelleyFB. It's one of the best CFB websites.
One of the outputs is this grid. The example is Wyoming's search for a P5 payday in 2021 (there are 3 options).
One of the outputs is this grid. The example is Wyoming's search for a P5 payday in 2021 (there are 3 options).
4/27 | 2022-2023 H&R (standard)
For UW, there are ZERO perfect matches for a P5 h&h in 2022-2023. There are no teams w/ the requisite game space, P5 space & home/road space to match. One year ago, LSU & Florida State were on this list, but UW lost that game of musical chairs.
For UW, there are ZERO perfect matches for a P5 h&h in 2022-2023. There are no teams w/ the requisite game space, P5 space & home/road space to match. One year ago, LSU & Florida State were on this list, but UW lost that game of musical chairs.
5/27 | 2022-2023 H&R (creativity pt 1)
Is all hope lost? NO. I am not connected in the world of college athletics, but from my perspective there are some creative ideas that UW may have / may not have pursued.
They involve...
Is all hope lost? NO. I am not connected in the world of college athletics, but from my perspective there are some creative ideas that UW may have / may not have pursued.
They involve...
6/27 | 2022-2023 H&R (creativity pt 2)
- neutral sites
- getting a P5 to play 6 just home games
- getting a P5 to play 1 more P5 than they typically do
- getting a P5 to buyout a G5 given that they have the right H/R sequence & also need a P5
- doing a home & home w/ a G5
- neutral sites
- getting a P5 to play 6 just home games
- getting a P5 to play 1 more P5 than they typically do
- getting a P5 to buyout a G5 given that they have the right H/R sequence & also need a P5
- doing a home & home w/ a G5
7/27 | Neutrals
See the pictures for neutral site P5 options for 2022 & 2023. The list is longer for 2023, but for 2022 we have...
Notre Dame
Miami
Virginia
ND needs a P5 and already has 6 home games scheduled, so might they be willing to play UW in Las Vegas?
See the pictures for neutral site P5 options for 2022 & 2023. The list is longer for 2023, but for 2022 we have...
Notre Dame
Miami
Virginia
ND needs a P5 and already has 6 home games scheduled, so might they be willing to play UW in Las Vegas?
8/27 | Neutrals (cont)
Almost all P5's are willing to play 6 home games if they also play at a neutral site. They will not go 6-6, but they'll go what I call "6.5-5.5". ND has a long & rich history of neutral site games, it's normal for them.
Almost all P5's are willing to play 6 home games if they also play at a neutral site. They will not go 6-6, but they'll go what I call "6.5-5.5". ND has a long & rich history of neutral site games, it's normal for them.
9/27 | Neutrals (cont)
What is the threat? For one, they already play both Ohio State & Clemson in 2022 (wow!), but I also worry that Notre Dame will either
a) play Michigan in a neutral site game (after Michigan buys out Hawaii)
What is the threat? For one, they already play both Ohio State & Clemson in 2022 (wow!), but I also worry that Notre Dame will either
a) play Michigan in a neutral site game (after Michigan buys out Hawaii)
10/27 | Neutrals (cont)
b) opt for UCLA (who also needs a P5) in a neutral, in a nod to Washington's superiority to UCLA which is certainly defensible given that again, they play both Ohio State & Clemson that year (wow)
b) opt for UCLA (who also needs a P5) in a neutral, in a nod to Washington's superiority to UCLA which is certainly defensible given that again, they play both Ohio State & Clemson that year (wow)
11/27 | Neutrals (cont)
c) pay UCLA to play at ND w/ no return. There isn't a lot of precedent for P5's being willing to do this, but Cal sent baby-shockwaves around CFB when they agreed to do this w/ ND (also in 2022)
My 1st choice for 2022 is a neutral w/ ND in Las Vegas!
c) pay UCLA to play at ND w/ no return. There isn't a lot of precedent for P5's being willing to do this, but Cal sent baby-shockwaves around CFB when they agreed to do this w/ ND (also in 2022)
My 1st choice for 2022 is a neutral w/ ND in Las Vegas!
12/27 | P5 w/ 6H
See the picture for P5s who would fit for a home & home with Washington in 2022-2023, IF they were willing to play just 6 home games in one of those two years...
Notre Dame most assuredly will not do this, but Miami Hurricanes, come on down! The ambitious
See the picture for P5s who would fit for a home & home with Washington in 2022-2023, IF they were willing to play just 6 home games in one of those two years...
Notre Dame most assuredly will not do this, but Miami Hurricanes, come on down! The ambitious
13/27 | P5 w/ 6H (cont)
faction of the ACC tends to play 2 P5 opponents per year. I'd like to think Miami puts themselves in that category, but thus far they have only 1 for 2022/2023 (Texas A&M). Would they come to Seattle in 2022, and have UW return to South FL in 2023?
faction of the ACC tends to play 2 P5 opponents per year. I'd like to think Miami puts themselves in that category, but thus far they have only 1 for 2022/2023 (Texas A&M). Would they come to Seattle in 2022, and have UW return to South FL in 2023?
14/27 | P5 w/ 6H (cont)
Given the interconnected histories of the Washington & Miami progrums, wouldn't that be fun? The problem is it would req Miami to play
a) 2 P5 (have not since 2015)
b) 6 home in 2022. Given poor attendance in an off campus stadium, maybe they would.
Given the interconnected histories of the Washington & Miami progrums, wouldn't that be fun? The problem is it would req Miami to play
a) 2 P5 (have not since 2015)
b) 6 home in 2022. Given poor attendance in an off campus stadium, maybe they would.
15/27 | 1+ P5
The next scenario involves finding a P5 who is "maxed out" as far as their P5's, but has game space both years & road space in 2022. See the picture for the options...
2019 national champion LSU, come on down!
@scottdean_
The next scenario involves finding a P5 who is "maxed out" as far as their P5's, but has game space both years & road space in 2022. See the picture for the options...
2019 national champion LSU, come on down!
@scottdean_
16/27 | 1+ P5 (cont)
Playing in the rugged SEC West, LSU typically (and justifiably) plays only 1 P5 non-con despite just 8 conference games. That being said, Alabama, Geogia and Florida have all recently decided to be 2P5 non-con progrums despite stiff SEC competition.
Playing in the rugged SEC West, LSU typically (and justifiably) plays only 1 P5 non-con despite just 8 conference games. That being said, Alabama, Geogia and Florida have all recently decided to be 2P5 non-con progrums despite stiff SEC competition.
17/27 | 1+ P5 (cont)
I actually changed the model's assumptions on those 3 based on their future bookings & the fascinating nugget @ChristianCaple got out of Jen Cohen in his recent long-form interview. Jen revealed that UW was close to getting Florida for 2022/2023...instead
I actually changed the model's assumptions on those 3 based on their future bookings & the fascinating nugget @ChristianCaple got out of Jen Cohen in his recent long-form interview. Jen revealed that UW was close to getting Florida for 2022/2023...instead
18/27 | 1+ P5
Florida picked Utah
LSU is a phenomenal program who views themselves as every bit the equal of those other 3. So why not "take the plunge" w/ them and play 2 P5 non-con. Scott Woodward arranging a series w/ old friend @JenniferCohenUW would be a great start!
Florida picked Utah
LSU is a phenomenal program who views themselves as every bit the equal of those other 3. So why not "take the plunge" w/ them and play 2 P5 non-con. Scott Woodward arranging a series w/ old friend @JenniferCohenUW would be a great start!
19/27 | G5 Buyout
Here's where 2022-2023 options get really wild. Is there a program out there who is technically all booked at the moment but has P5 space both years, as well as road space in 2022?
Michigan Wolverines, come on down!
And technically Arkansas, but not really.
Here's where 2022-2023 options get really wild. Is there a program out there who is technically all booked at the moment but has P5 space both years, as well as road space in 2022?
Michigan Wolverines, come on down!
And technically Arkansas, but not really.
20/27 | G5 Buyout (cont)
Arkansas is full w/ BYU booked. In theory, they could cancel Liberty in 2022 & FIU in 2023 and book UW, but given their rebuilding status & that they can get away w/ treating BYU as a P5, I don't expect that to happen.
That leaves us with Michigan.
Arkansas is full w/ BYU booked. In theory, they could cancel Liberty in 2022 & FIU in 2023 and book UW, but given their rebuilding status & that they can get away w/ treating BYU as a P5, I don't expect that to happen.
That leaves us with Michigan.
21/27 | G5 Buyout (cont)
Michigan cancelled UCLA in 2022/2023 to get on a perfect 7 home games per year rotation. They wanted consistency, rather than a 2022/2023 that would've given them 8 & 6. But...they appear screwed for a P5, unless (just like UW) they can get a neutral.
Michigan cancelled UCLA in 2022/2023 to get on a perfect 7 home games per year rotation. They wanted consistency, rather than a 2022/2023 that would've given them 8 & 6. But...they appear screwed for a P5, unless (just like UW) they can get a neutral.
22/27 | G5 Buyout (cont)
They have space in 2023, but are full w/ 3 G5s in 2022.
Why not buy out CSU, Hawaii or UConn and double-up the h&h fun w/ UW? It's so crazy that it just might make sense.
If this happens, UW would play UM more in 4 years than the B1G West does in 9!
They have space in 2023, but are full w/ 3 G5s in 2022.
Why not buy out CSU, Hawaii or UConn and double-up the h&h fun w/ UW? It's so crazy that it just might make sense.
If this happens, UW would play UM more in 4 years than the B1G West does in 9!
23/27 | G5 h&h
The last creative solution to UW's 2022-2023 non-conference scheduling mess is simple. To swallow their pride & book a home & home w/ a G5. See the picture for those options...
BYU being independent is fortunate in the sense that they're always available.
The last creative solution to UW's 2022-2023 non-conference scheduling mess is simple. To swallow their pride & book a home & home w/ a G5. See the picture for those options...
BYU being independent is fortunate in the sense that they're always available.
24/27 | G5 h&h
A home & home w/ BYU would be a let down for a lot of UW fans...so let's get really creative. For 2022-2023, is there a G5 w/ game space & road space, but not P5 space???
UCF Knights, come on down! Ever prideful w/ their refusal to do 2 for 1s, UCF would be
A home & home w/ BYU would be a let down for a lot of UW fans...so let's get really creative. For 2022-2023, is there a G5 w/ game space & road space, but not P5 space???
UCF Knights, come on down! Ever prideful w/ their refusal to do 2 for 1s, UCF would be
25/27 | G5 h&h (1+ P5)
3 P5 willing if they got a h&h.
UCF is a good bet to be good in 2022. Playing in Orlando (in Sept) will be dangerous. Why not do it & then preach that UCF is better than 55-70% of the P5?
Washington should consider a 2022-2023 h&h w/ UCF.
@RememberF5
3 P5 willing if they got a h&h.
UCF is a good bet to be good in 2022. Playing in Orlando (in Sept) will be dangerous. Why not do it & then preach that UCF is better than 55-70% of the P5?
Washington should consider a 2022-2023 h&h w/ UCF.
@RememberF5
26/27 | Review
UW's non-con options for 2022-2023
Home & Home
- Miami (if they're willing to play 6 H in 2022)
- LSU (if they're willing to play 2 P5 non-con)
- Michigan (if they buy out a 2022 G5 & are not sick of us)
- a G5 (should we put our snobbey aside & book UCF?)
UW's non-con options for 2022-2023
Home & Home
- Miami (if they're willing to play 6 H in 2022)
- LSU (if they're willing to play 2 P5 non-con)
- Michigan (if they buy out a 2022 G5 & are not sick of us)
- a G5 (should we put our snobbey aside & book UCF?)
27/27 | Review (cont)
UW's non-con options for 2022-2023
Neutral in 2022
- Notre Dame
- Miami
- UVA
Neutral in 2023
- Alabama
- Michigan
- Notre Dame
- Miami
- Mich St
- Tennessee
- Syracuse
plus more (look at the pictures)
My vote is ATTACHED. Make it happen @UWAthletics
UW's non-con options for 2022-2023
Neutral in 2022
- Notre Dame
- Miami
- UVA
Neutral in 2023
- Alabama
- Michigan
- Notre Dame
- Miami
- Mich St
- Tennessee
- Syracuse
plus more (look at the pictures)
My vote is ATTACHED. Make it happen @UWAthletics
