Navarro memos hit the WH in late January. They were extremely accurate.

It’s now clear that by early February Trump was deeply engaged in planning how he’d deal with COVID-19 outbreak.

February 10th Trump announces trip to India. https://www.dw.com/en/donald-trump-announces-first-visit-to-india/a-52330907
February 23 Trump moves Grenell to DNI

February 24 Trump is able to speak in person to Modi. Later that day he tweets “Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA”.

February 25 CDC reports publicly what Navarro memo had described to WH in January.
Trump’s bluster in February 24 tweet was a masking agent designed to manipulate the Chinese and give him time to get to Washington to direct the pandemic response.

He wasn’t overconfident.

He was clear eyed about the challenge and knew ha had secured our access to Indian HCQ.
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