PM Scott Morrison reiterates that fewer than 10% of Covid-19 cases in Australia are from community transmission.

The daily growth rate is now "just a few percentage points per day."

"This has occurred quite rapidly. Indeed it has occurred beyond our expectations."

Morrison, speaking after the national cabinet meeting alongside CMO Brendan Murphy, says the daily incidence rate has fallen faster than was predicted by modelling. He says "we must lock in these gains".

Morrison says Australia must "keep the tension in the cord".

He issues a specific warning for easter, saying EVERYONE must stay at home.

"Failure to do so this weekend would completely undo everything we have achieved so far together, and potentially worse."

Morrison says outbreaks overseas have shown that the virus can spread rapidly in holiday times. He points to a recent outbreak in India.

Morrison issues a strong disclaimer on the modelling before releasing it. He says it is theoretical. It is based on international data, not Australian data and Australian case data. It is not predictive.

Morrison: "The modelling does not predict what will happen in Australia. It does not tell you how many Australians will contract the virus, how many will succumb the the virus".

It also doesn't predict how long the virus will be in Australia.

"And I would urge those reporting on it today not to present it in that light. It would be misleading."

Morrison said that in the future its hoped that modelling will incorporate Australian case data, but he notes that because Australia has had such limited community spread to date, we actually don't have sufficient data to work with.

Before the modelling, PM says that national cabinet has agreed to a mandatory code of conduct on residential tenancies, to be legislated.

The means test will be where the tenant or landlord is eligible for the jobkeeper program where they have a turnover of $50m or less.

Code will allow people to negotiate either a waiver or a deferral of rental payments - deferred payments have to be paid by the end of the lease term.

Meanwhile in Victoria: https://twitter.com/JennyMikakos/status/1247369953470066688

Another increase of community transmission in Victoria: https://twitter.com/JennyMikakos/status/1247370071040614400

Morrison said education ministers are meeting now and there will be an announcement on schools, including how the rest of the school year will be managed, after the national cabinet meeting on Thursday.

He says states will make decisions on what suits their jurisdiction.

Brendan Murphy is speaking now. He says there have now been 44 deaths. Still fewer than 100 people in ICU, of whom about 40 are on ventilators.

He repeats that his biggest concern is community transmission.

"that is why we cannot relax what we have been doing."

Murphy: "We have seen what this virus can do on a cruise ship, at a wedding. It can spread to 30, 50, several hundred people very quickly."

The repeated message is do not take the slowing incidence rate as a sign that you can resume ordinary life. You can't.

Murphy says it is "a really concerning issue" that many people with other chronic conditions are not going to the doctor at the moment out of fear of Covid-19. Murphy urges them to see their doctors if needed.

"Please don't' neglect general health conditions at the moment."

He reminds people that telehealth is available on medicare now, and also that they can visit doctors in person safely if they call ahead.

Murphy says the modelling, by the Doherty institute, will be released as papers this afternoon.

He reiterates that the models are theoretical.

Firstly he shows the Australian case numbers which shows Australia is not just flattening but bending the curve — the daily incidence rate is going down, we've already hit the incidence peak pending another big outbreak.

First slide on the health system capacity modelling is an uncontrolled outbreak - everyone sick at once.

It's to look at ICU capacity.

"This is a horrendous scenario. It's not real. It doesn't reflect the real situation in Australia."

As we already knew, if there was an uncontrolled, unmitigated outbreak in Australia — which is not what is happening — we don't have enough ICU beds.

You'd need more than 35,000 ICU beds per day, says Murphy.. "Completely beyond the realm of any country like Australia to meet."

the modelling then modelled measures to control the curve. So quarantine and isolation, and then social distancing "which we can dial up and down."

Murphy says they have "a major flattening effect."

The graph of this model is a reassuringly flat curve.

SO: in the uncontrolled outbreak scenario, only 15% of people who need ICU beds can get them.

In the modelling that assumes quarantine, isolation, and social distancing: "we know that we could meet the ICU bed capacity."

Murphy says that in real life, Australia has actually reduced the infectivity rate beyond the social distancing modelling.

Murphy says the thing that concerns him most is the community transmission outbreak in Sydney.

"We cannot be complacent, we must hold our line."

Murphy says the next wave of modelling, which will be based on Australian case data, will be focused on community transmission and scenarios to control that, to make sure that measures put in place are effective.

Murphy said Australia had a "wonderful" uptake of hand hygiene and social distancing.

"Some of those measures will stay with us all forever even when this is all over. I think the new approach to hand hygiene, personal hygiene, has changed the way many of us think."

I am putting this in a thread to ensure each tweet is read in the right context.

Please don't pull out individual tweets on modelling to read out of context.

All modelling is theoretical. It's very difficult for a layperson to interpret, and I count myself in that.

First question is whether the modelling shows when Australia can relax social distancing measures.

Murphy says no, it's mainly about ICU capacity. They are not saying now when those measures may be relaxed.

Murphy is asked whether Australia's strategy is to work to a zero case scenario, as is the aim in China.

Murphy says that would mean very strict border controls "possibly for a very long time". (Until a vaccine is available, if one becomes available).

Murphy said there are many possible scenarios, and it's difficult to say which is the right one. He says they will keep looking at the issue.

Morrison adds that national cabinet would need to look at the ability to keep the country running in that scenario.

Apologies, I misheard Morrison's earlier comments about the code of conduct being in reference to residential tenancies. It was about commercial tenancies.

See here: https://twitter.com/shalailah/status/1247375544372490240