Probably the single best thing Hong Kong has done to fight COVID is maintain this website which is a massive privacy violation and also a huge lifesaver and a great way to allow individuals to make well-informed choices for their own safety. https://chp-dashboard.geodata.gov.hk/covid-19/en.html

They just updated the website too and now they provide a live estimate of effective R0 too, which is pretty cool.

But anyways, governments should absolutely maintain websites like this with maps of infected houses, lists of transportation people took; I mean personally I'd list infected peoples' names to help crowdsource contact tracing.

In a time or plague, privacy has massive negative externalities.

Anyways.

Another day, another round of data. The US continues to bend the curve! Yay!

Testing seems to be resuming its upward trajectory, even as the positive % is about flat. That's good news. CFR continues to rise which ain't great.

And here's the log and normal graphs of share truly infected using the different possible calculations. As usual, I think the true value is somewhere between the bright red hashed and the blue dotted lines.

FWIW, NY deaths have come in lower than I expected the past 3 days, and MUCH lower than the IHME model expected. Here's what the models look like now that I've updated expectations (IHME has not).

The big caveat to this is that if this tweet is true then NY COVID deaths may be understated. That's also the implication of my chart which shows week 12 deaths rising above trend by a lot more than would be expected from COVID deaths. https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1247155922188804096?s=20

So if it turns out that NY is underreporting COVD deaths, that would of course impact these estimates. We'll have better information on Friday.

Anyways. That's your data dump for the day. There's absolutely no way New York doesn't experience a very significant increase in deaths but we don't yet know just how big it will be.

Data for other parts of the country mostly isn't complete enough to say one way or another.