I know the IHME data has myriad issues (best-case distancing assumed, inflated ICU/ventilator figures in some states, etc.) but can someone explain to me how it squares with Newsom's claim that California will likely experience a mid-May peak for COVID-19? https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections 

I know very little about all this, but I've been pretty glued to this site and keeping my own little unsophisticated sheet tracking IHME CA predictions to reported numbers, and I really can't figure out how the peak would be almost a month off what Newsom was projecting today.