1/ Some of you may be wondering in light of the news about #Boris tonight, whether there is any data on ICU mortality rates. Hopefully this quick thread can combat some disinformation before it takes hold of the public consciousness. #getwellsoonboris

2/ There has been some slapdash reporting suggesting that the mortality rate for patients admitted to intensive care is 50%; this isn't correct and stems from misreading of published statistics. The more accurate answer is the more boring one; we don't really know for sure yet.

3/ The idea of a 50% mortality rate seems to come from a report by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre published on 27 March 2020, you can find it here: https://www.icnarc.org/About/Latest-News/2020/03/27/Report-On-775-Patients-Critically-Ill-With-Covid-19

4/ What the report found was:

- 775 patients were studied.
- Of those, 165 had left intensive care.
- Of those 165 "outcomes", 79 died, 86 lived i.e. 48%/52%.

The rest, and importantly, *the vast majority*, 610 people, were still in ICU, with an outcome to be determined.

5/ Given that, for the vast majority of people, the outcome is simply "we don't know"; it is not correct to say that 50% of people admitted to ICU will die- further outcomes could skew that statistic massively. It is at best lazy reporting and at worst actively misleading.

6/ Tim Crocker-Buque, an epidemiologist from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine @LSHTM, stated that "To say that the mortality rate of ICU patients is 50% is misleading and may induce panic". https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-icnarc-report-on-the-first-reported-775-patients-critically-ill-with-covid-19/

7/ This clearly did not stop the Express or the Metro from actively ignoring this with their headlines; I expect more unhelpful headlines along the lines of "PM's life hangs in the balance" over the next few days.

8/ We are getting more data as each day goes by- there was a more recent report published 4 April 2020 - https://www.icnarc.org/About/Latest-News/2020/04/04/Report-On-2249-Patients-Critically-Ill-With-Covid-19

Findings:
- 2249 patients in ICU
- 346 deaths
- 344 discharged alive

9/ Again, the majority of cases, nearly 70%, still remain "unknowns", but that pesky "half of all patients die" headline writes itself.

9/ Re the 4 April report, Prof Duncan Young of @UniofOxford reminds us that “We only know the outcome (alive/dead) for a small proportion of those admitted to an ICU, so we can’t necessarily generalise these findings to what might happen to those admitted to an ICU in the future"

9/ This is the important and dull point; the press saying the "PM's chances are 50/50" makes for easy headlines, but they are not helpful at a time of great national anxiety particularly when they are based on misconceptions.

10/ Thankfully, and I say this as no particular fan of Johnson's, his chances of surviving this may very well be much higher than that.

I ballsed up my numbering didn't I. Cock.