When I canvassed Virginia for Warren on Super Tuesday weekend, I ran into a lot of people who wanted Warren but decided to vote for Biden because they felt he was the safe choice. I tried to convince them that Warren was a safe choice too, but it was what it was.

The South Carolina trouncing had a lot to do with that. Biden had always been the default, and breaking through that by showing Warren was both an inspiring choice and a safe choice was a challenge.

We couldn't peel off those traditional Dems, and Bernie has successfully consolidated a lot of the left support that had leached to Warren, leaving her without a viable path.

Bernie took that left support and completely squandered it by doing absolutely zero to convince base Dems that he was a) a safe choice, or b) cared about the party as an institution.

How exactly was that supposed to work with an electorate that consisted of jittery base Dems all trying to be Nate Silver? It wasn't. There was no conspiracy here, just a return to the long-standing default.

Warren didn't lose because of a conspiracy theory. Neither did Bernie. It's important to be clear-eyed about that and take the right lessons so we can build a winning coalition next time.