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Another corona virus thread, this one might not be as cheery as my last one, so strap in: I took the total numbers from today, as well as some other facts about the virus to make some assumptions, and then projected the impact that the virus will have (in the US only).
The first assumption out there I took was that 75%-80% of the cases are mild, and the next one was that 1 in 4 (or 25%) of people who have the virus are asymptomatic (won't show signs of the illness). Then I guessed that 50% of confirmed cases are people with severe symptoms.
Then from those assumptions, I figured the number of confirmed cases is roughly between 18.75% and 2.26% of the actual cases in the US (meaning about 5-40 times more people have the virus than the over 360,000 confirmed cases -- because most people are mild or asymptomatic).
Then I took these new figures and calculated the mortality rate for the different 'actual case' scenarios and forecasted what things would look like if 10%, 25%, 50%, and 75% of the US population got the virus and this is the graph that I came up with:
The estimates I've seen are fairly low: 100,000-240,000 deaths are expected in the US, which makes me think one or several other assumptions are being made. 1) the time frame of those estimates is short. 2) WAY more people have it then previously thought - reducing the mortality.
3) they are optimistic that medical advances are going to be made (quicker vaccine than normal, plasma from people who recover from the virus is being used to help fight it, other medications used/developed, etc...). 4) Summer will slow the spread just like how flu seasons work.
5) social distancing & increased awareness of how viruses spread is going to slow it. And 6) which scares me the most, the assumption that we are going to be quarantined for months on end until we have herd immunity or get the vaccine.
Or it's a mixture of some of these factors.
Or it's a mixture of some of these factors.
My fear is that we are seeing a flattening of the curve already & people take that as "we can start to go back to our normal lives" but once we try to do that the virus numbers will explode again. I obviously don't have the information our gov does so maybe I'm missing something.
I'm hoping the asymptomatic cases are much higher than originally thought, it dies out in the summer, medical advancements are made quickly, and/or our new social distancing and hygiene habits are what brings an end to this thing (or several of these factors overwhelm it).
Again, full disclosure: some of my assumptions or numbers could be inaccurate and I am also an idiot.
I just wish smarter people in-the-know who are getting paid to research this stuff would release these kinds of estimates more often to the public. End thread
I just wish smarter people in-the-know who are getting paid to research this stuff would release these kinds of estimates more often to the public. End thread
