Wait what?!

How does population size matter when you’re charting disease spread? Density might matter, but the actual number of people in the country is irrelevant at this stage. The spread rate isn’t affected by the number of people who haven’t caught it yet. https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1247251361718288387

Suppose the virus starts in two countries, A and B, on the same day. A has 3 million people. B has 30 million. But the density is comparable. From day one until 3 million people infected, you can compare the spread rate in A and B. Population size is irrelevant.

Per capita could be relevant if you’re comparing total number of cases to get a sense of how it affected the two countries. But when you’re comparing the rate of the spread from case #1 forward? No. Why would size of population matter (again, assuming density comparable)?