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We have a new COVID projection built specifically for North Carolina by a collaboration of researchers at UNC, Duke, and RTI.
It tells us a lot.
Good news and bad.
/thread/
It tells us a lot.
Good news and bad.
/thread/
In short, if we maintain our current posture (stay home order extends beyond April 29, schools and non-essential business remain closed), there is only a 20% chance that we will exceed our ICU capacity.
If we lift those restrictions at the end of April it's 50%.
If we lift those restrictions at the end of April it's 50%.
Why?
Because the model projects that lifting restrictions at the end of April - and not replacing them with anything of equal effectiveness - will take us from 250,000 cases to 750,000 cases in a matter of weeks.
Because the model projects that lifting restrictions at the end of April - and not replacing them with anything of equal effectiveness - will take us from 250,000 cases to 750,000 cases in a matter of weeks.
So we take from this good news and bad news.
Good news: We are on track to minimize the loss of life in North Carolina. What we are doing is working. The sacrifices we are making as individuals are adding up to a major reduction in loss of life.
Good news: We are on track to minimize the loss of life in North Carolina. What we are doing is working. The sacrifices we are making as individuals are adding up to a major reduction in loss of life.
Bad news: Absent a separate set of policies that are equally effective, lifting our current restrictions in the near-term may triple the number of North Carolinians who become infected and may overwhelm our ability to provide acute care, leading to a spike in the fatality rate.
Looking ahead, it’s becoming clearer that, while we didn’t get rapid, widespread testing prior to hitting peak infection, we’re still going to need it.
Mass testing (+ contact tracing + isolation) may become the biggest piece of a *post-peak but pre-vaccine* strategy.
Mass testing (+ contact tracing + isolation) may become the biggest piece of a *post-peak but pre-vaccine* strategy.
PPE UPDATE
North Carolina has received three shipments from the Strategic National Stockpile, which means we’ve received 33% of our request.
We’ve been told the stockpile is nearly depleted and not to expect any more shipments.
North Carolina has received three shipments from the Strategic National Stockpile, which means we’ve received 33% of our request.
We’ve been told the stockpile is nearly depleted and not to expect any more shipments.
Our emergency management teams are working to find PPE anywhere they can. They’ve put in over $100m worth of orders so far.
As you may have seen reported, it’s been made more difficult by the fact that we’re competing against other states and hospital systems.
As you may have seen reported, it’s been made more difficult by the fact that we’re competing against other states and hospital systems.
If you have PPE to donate (if in Charlotte), contact [email protected].
If you have PPE to sell, contact [email protected].
If you have PPE to sell, contact [email protected].
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
Nearly 400,000 North Carolinians have lost their jobs in the last few weeks. DES is receiving roughly 1,000 claims per hour - 100x the normal number.
Which means - as many of you have painfully experienced - the system is totally overwhelmed.
Nearly 400,000 North Carolinians have lost their jobs in the last few weeks. DES is receiving roughly 1,000 claims per hour - 100x the normal number.
Which means - as many of you have painfully experienced - the system is totally overwhelmed.
But DES has hired 350 new people, contracted with an additional call center, and is adding server capacity. Fixing this is an immediate priority.
NOTE: 30% of the calls they are receiving are from people checking on the status of their claim or asking general questions.
NOTE: 30% of the calls they are receiving are from people checking on the status of their claim or asking general questions.
Many people have reported having trouble with their passwords or PIN. If that's you, contact [email protected]
CAR INSPECTIONS
This is coming up a lot - and also happens to apply to me (I’m due).
Right now DOT doesn’t have the authority to push back inspection dates, but they are planning on asking for that authority when the legislature returns to session this month.
This is coming up a lot - and also happens to apply to me (I’m due).
Right now DOT doesn’t have the authority to push back inspection dates, but they are planning on asking for that authority when the legislature returns to session this month.
“WHY ARE LIQUOR STORES STILL OPEN?”
It’s because we have a lot of people who are chemically dependent on alcohol and if we suddenly cut off their access they would go into withdrawal and flood the emergency rooms, which we can’t have right now.
It’s because we have a lot of people who are chemically dependent on alcohol and if we suddenly cut off their access they would go into withdrawal and flood the emergency rooms, which we can’t have right now.
FINAL THOUGHT
The people who are going to be sick during peak infection in the next few weeks are *not sick yet.*
We still have the time and the ability to minimize the loss of life in our state.
The people who are going to be sick during peak infection in the next few weeks are *not sick yet.*
We still have the time and the ability to minimize the loss of life in our state.
