A brief history of EPIDEMICS
Dr Musa Mohd Nordin
Chairman, FIMA Advisory Council
6 April 2020
 
218 Hijrah / 818 AD
Epidemic in Egypt
Every household was infected
Many of their governors and leaders died
 
228 Hijrah / 828 AD
The epidemic spread to Azerbaijan

Many died till there were not enough shroud material to cover their bodies
 
448 Hijrah / 1048 AD
Epidemic in Andalusia, Egypt etc
Imam Zahabi (673-748) said: This was an epidemic never seen before in human history. The mosques were closed and no persons prayed in them.

8th century Hijrah / 14th century
The Black Death due to the bubonic plague.
Caused by yersinia pestis, a flea-borne bacterial disease of rodents that jumped to humans.
The whole world was affected with its epicenter in Europe
200 million people died in 4 years

Then they did not know what was the cause.
But they realized that it spread easily when there is close proximity.
In Italy then, the sailors were not allowed to disembark to shore until after 40 (Quarantino) and they remained well. Thus the word Quarantine.

The Muslim scholar cum physician Ibn Sina (980-1037) suspected that some disease were spread by agents invisible to the naked eye. To prevent the spread of illnesses he isolated his patients for 40 days, a method he called al-Arba’iniya which means the forty.

Venetian traders learnt of his successful method and brought it back to Italy, where it is called Quarantino, meaning 40 in Italian. Al-Maqrizi (1364-1445) a historian, recorded this very severe epidemic
In many districts the azan was stopped
Most mosques were closed

So it is not surprising that the Minister of Religious Affairs has issued a fatwa  to close all the mosques, disallowing congregational prayers and lifting the Friday prayers until further notice
 
833 Hijrah / 1433 AD
Ibn Hajar, the commentator extraordinaire of Sahih Bukhari

(collection of authentic traditions of the Prophet) lost 3 of his daughters to the Egyptian epidemic.
Despite his loss, he braved himself to write a 400 pages encyclopaedia of epidemics. He discussed various aspects of epidemics including;

a.     where does epidemics originate from
b.     what ought to be done to combat academics
c.      religious rulings on epidemics
among the hadiths discussed it included the famous hadith on the taun narrated by 2 companions of the Prophet promised paradise whilst still alive

(al-Mubashirun) Abu Ubaidah al Jarrah & Abdul Rahman Auf (RA) Sahih Bukari Vol 7/Bk 71/No 624
Narrated Saud: The Prophet said, "If you hear of an outbreak of plague in a land, do not enter it; but if the plague breaks out in a place while you are in it, do not leave that place.”

His writings was a gem on fiqh of epidemics.
1318Hijrah/1918 AD
The Spanish Flu Influenza pandemic
I in 5 world citizen was infected & 50 million deaths
Children were taught the ills of flu & they skip-rope
I have a bird
It’s name is Enza
I opened the window
And In-Flu-Enza

1403 Hijrah / 2003 AD
SARS-CoV-2 epidemic
There were 8,000 cases reported
800 deaths. Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 10%
 
1409 Hijrah / 2009 AD
Pandemic H1N1 Influenza
The influenza vaccine managed to reduce the deaths to 300,000
There were 13,000 cases in Malaysia with 77 deaths

1413 Hijrah / 2013 AD
MERS-CoV outbreak
The CFR was 35% If the SARS-CoV-2 is allowed to spread without any public health interventions, the following worst case scenario will unfold.
Total Malaysian population= 32 million
Numbers infected= 50% = 16 million

No with asymptomatic or mild infection= 80% = 12.8 million
No requiring hospitalisations= 15% = 2.4 million
No requiring critical care in ICU= 5% = 0.8 million
No dead= 1% = 0.16 million = 160,000
Latest figures 6 April 2020
No infected= 3793
No died= 62
Case Fatality Rate= 1.63%

The WHO has declared COVID2019 a pandemic
The world has declared WAR against COVID2019
To win this war we must have a WAR STRATEGY
 
The objectives of the war strategy against COVID2019 are:
1.     Decrease the disease burden of COVID2019
2.     Minimise morbidity & mortality

3.     Force Ro (Reprod No) to <1.0
4.     These will flatten the Epidemic Curve
5.     It will buy time for health care services & infrastructure to build its capacity to effectively address the pandemic
6.     Whilst waiting for effective anti-viral drugs and a vaccine

The strategic modus operandi are:
1.     Effective containment of COVID2019 through
a.     Testing
b.     Contact Tracing
c.      Quarantine
d.     Physical Distancing
2.     This was effective until the appearance of the Tabligh cluster

3.     Onset of mitigation measures
a.     Ramp up activities in 1a-1c
b.     Enhance 1d with Movement Control Order (MCO)
c.      Enhance MCO (EMCO) in hot spots of COVID 2019
TO BE CONTINUED …

@threadreaderapp unroll