How we ease some of the current restrictions is a major issue but asking for an ‘exit strategy’ may be unhelpful as suggests a clear and logical sequence of steps leading to a semblance of normality. 1/n

The concept of an ‘exit strategy’ first emerged in the late 1990s when governments were worried that humanitarian military interventions would turn into indefinite commitments.2/n

Approach (1 )was to insist on a leaving date come what may, but this appeared reckless because that might just result in a return to the previous situation which prompted intervention in the first place. 3/n

Approach (2) was conditions based - only leaving when it was safe to do so. Problem here was that the conditions might be too demanding and so never met, leading to them being relaxed and so ending up back with the problem of Approach (1).4/n

It was therefore always prudent to accept that once forces were introduced into an area marked by conflict they would be there for some time, and that the strategy that would eventually allow them to be withdrawn was hard to know in advance.5/n

There are obvious parallels with Covid-19. Abandon stringent measures too early and the disease may rush back. Define the ideal conditions in which they might be lifted and the moment might never come.6/n

There are obvious differences. The timescales are more compressed and other countries will be facing these decisions and taking actions before we do. We can learn from them. 7/n

The big difference is that while it is possible to exit from a foreign country we must live in our own. At least until there is a reliable vaccine we can’t anticipate a sudden escape from the virus and containment measures. 8/n

A variety of mitigation measures will need to be explored, a degree of trial and error, perhaps occasional returns to ‘lockdown’, and some permanent changes to how we live and work. 9/n

At the moment the sort of exit strategy demanded requires a more predictable future than we can have and so is likely to lead to even more frustration. The challenge lies in adapting to a new level of risk in our everyday lives. /end