Thread on shocking exponential growth, yet still fails to understand exponential growth.
If your small interventions fail to stop growth, ~everyone is infected anyway. Then your small intervention has a small effect, because herd immunity is an approximately linear equation. https://twitter.com/dsymetweets/status/1246933275093938182">https://twitter.com/dsymetwee...
If your small interventions fail to stop growth, ~everyone is infected anyway. Then your small intervention has a small effect, because herd immunity is an approximately linear equation. https://twitter.com/dsymetweets/status/1246933275093938182">https://twitter.com/dsymetwee...
This is why widely contagious pandemics usually have binary outcomes: either everyone who can be infected, is infected, or approximately no-one is infected.
SARS could be stopped, and infected 10,000 people.
H1N1 couldn& #39;t, and infected 1,000,000,000 people.
SARS could be stopped, and infected 10,000 people.
H1N1 couldn& #39;t, and infected 1,000,000,000 people.