This week starts off on a somber note, as the reality of mitigating COVID19 has fully hit the processing sector. This is combination effect of taking spacing precautions on the line for employee safety, and a result of the current demand plane.
Bids at the beginning of last week found solid footing, especially on chuck, round and lean trim with retail demand strong early on. However, as the week carried on foot traffic at retail lost momentum--and bids became harder to come by. 50% trim traded at near historic lows.
Outside skirts were priced below inside skirts, a relationship I have never seen before---and a startling metric of the field absent food service demand; where skirts are a highly sought after component of Tex Mex and Hispanic concepts.
Middles continue to decline, with tenders not receiving bids, ribs sliding and strips still trading but below seasonal norms.
Kill last week was down 50k head to 626,000 down from 676,000 and I forecast this will continue to slide this week, worsening an already quiet cattle market.
What this week will bring? Does anyone really know? Slowing down the line will have a negative implications on cash cattle. That is certain. But will slowing down the line provide buoyancy to boxed pricing in the absence of any real consumption?
Pork is all together in worse shape. Harvesting 100k head more last week than a year ago. Bellies traded at 35 last week, down from 149 the year before. 74M lbs of bellies in cold storage, this week will likely be another another depressing one for pork value.
It certainly doesn't feel like Easter week with hams on the slide too. But with weaned pigs at sub-$10, there isn't much room for celebrating in any industry segment.
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