How MASSIVE were the prediction fails revisions for the HMEI model? The mode which has locked us inside for all of April.

New York #COVID19 beds needed
Original: 76,130
Revised: 25,486

Remember the model assumes "stay-at-home" in place. This was their worst case scenario!

Here's California. Original model is the high peak predicting 10,000 beds. New projection down below 5000 beds... across a state of 39 million.

Something weird happened in New York. We'll have to cover that later.

Alabama! For some reason, the Murray model had Alabama as the third highest death toll on April 15th.

This revision is just... flat out... off-the-charts... miss x 1000

or rather time 1300%

The model pegged Colorado with a big burden come mid-month... well that got revised. from 8300 beds need to under 500.

If you're in Colorado and wondering why you should keep yourself shut inside for ALL of April because 500 people ACROSS the state might be in a hospital bed ?

Alaska - bad news... they underestimated your hospital burdens... but I'm guessing you guys can handle it.

I think that's the main question across all of this. Could we have just ABSORBED the impact?

Hard to see how I win this one. All I can do is raise questions.

Louisiana! They pegged you for disaster. I have to admit I was worried about you too... but it looks like it was a flare up in just one city. Speaking to a friend down there... he says they've shut down the drive through testing. Demand just wasn't there.

7400 down to 923

Washington - the state which started it all. Murray thought for sure you folks would continue to see a massive fallout. Revisions show you guys should be ok.