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How MASSIVE were the prediction fails revisions for the HMEI model? The mode which has locked us inside for all of April.
New York #COVID19 beds needed
Original: 76,130
Revised: 25,486
Remember the model assumes "stay-at-home" in place. This was their worst case scenario!
New York #COVID19 beds needed
Original: 76,130
Revised: 25,486
Remember the model assumes "stay-at-home" in place. This was their worst case scenario!
Here& #39;s California. Original model is the high peak predicting 10,000 beds. New projection down below 5000 beds... across a state of 39 million.
Something weird happened in New York. We& #39;ll have to cover that later.
Something weird happened in New York. We& #39;ll have to cover that later.
Alabama! For some reason, the Murray model had Alabama as the third highest death toll on April 15th.
This revision is just... flat out... off-the-charts... miss x 1000
or rather time 1300%
This revision is just... flat out... off-the-charts... miss x 1000
or rather time 1300%
The model pegged Colorado with a big burden come mid-month... well that got revised. from 8300 beds need to under 500.
If you& #39;re in Colorado and wondering why you should keep yourself shut inside for ALL of April because 500 people ACROSS the state might be in a hospital bed ?
If you& #39;re in Colorado and wondering why you should keep yourself shut inside for ALL of April because 500 people ACROSS the state might be in a hospital bed ?
Alaska - bad news... they underestimated your hospital burdens... but I& #39;m guessing you guys can handle it.
I think that& #39;s the main question across all of this. Could we have just ABSORBED the impact?
Hard to see how I win this one. All I can do is raise questions.
I think that& #39;s the main question across all of this. Could we have just ABSORBED the impact?
Hard to see how I win this one. All I can do is raise questions.
Louisiana! They pegged you for disaster. I have to admit I was worried about you too... but it looks like it was a flare up in just one city. Speaking to a friend down there... he says they& #39;ve shut down the drive through testing. Demand just wasn& #39;t there.
7400 down to 923
7400 down to 923
Washington - the state which started it all. Murray thought for sure you folks would continue to see a massive fallout. Revisions show you guys should be ok.
