Big question: How will the coronavirus affect governance and democracy globally? Partial Answer: pleased to share analysis with my @CarnegieEndow colleagues Tom Carothers and @SaskiaBrech , starting to tackle this. @CarnegieDCG @RachelKleinfeld https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/04/06/how-will-coronavirus-reshape-democracy-and-governance-globally-pub-81470

Takeaway 1: There are huge potential effects on expansion of central authority, curtailment of basic rights/freedoms, expansion of surveillance, enablement of authoritarian tactics- in both democratic and authoritarian states- at a time when democracy was already under threat.

Takeaway 2: But this is just the tip of the iceberg, b/c the virus will disrupt democracy in other ways: electoral disruptions, unbalancing civil-military relations, prompting more pressure on civil society, reshaping the debate on the merits of democracy versus authoritarianism.

Takeaway 3: There will be still more implications for governance more broadly: empowerment or legitimation of non-state actors, exacerbation of polarization, risks to basic governance viability and regime stability, heightened corruption, emergence of local-level leaders.

Takeaway 4: Outlook is bleak, but need not be wholly so. Some developments may spur positive reforms or innovation- on elections or civil society- or change power dynamics in countries to spur greater accountability. And much unknown as the virus spreads more to fragile states.

Bottom line: just as the virus’s contagion respects no borders, its political effects will inevitably sweep across boundaries and continue to echo long after the health emergency has eased. For all who care about global democracy and governance, now is the time to get ready.

CCing governance, democracy & fragility watchers: @JonTemin @SteveJFeldstein @AshleyQuarcoo @YoungsRichard @ArianeTabatabai @MilanV @patrickwquirk @tcwittes @AndrwPMiller @awhawth @myacoubian @danielbenaim @SchneidermanDM @natsecdalton @DFID_RED_GCSD @Max_Fisher @NateRosenblatt